Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!
Good eye, that is the difference. I didn't allow for any ties.
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Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!
Here are my seeding predictions for each of the 4 outcomes possible tonight. All probabilities generated using KRACH from today, not what it would be after tomorrow.
UMD and CC win - 36.82% odds of occurring
http://uploads.cuttlefishtech.com/md-cc_3-17-11_15-22.html
Bemidji and CC win - 16.60% odds of occurring
http://uploads.cuttlefishtech.com/bm-cc_3-17-11_15-15.html
Bemidji and AA win - 14.47% odds of occurring
http://uploads.cuttlefishtech.com/bm-aa_3-17-11_15-09.html
UMD and AA win - 32.10% odds of occurring
http://uploads.cuttlefishtech.com/md-aa_3-17-11_15-26.html
A bit of a write-up including overall odds including all of the above 4 scenarios can be found here:
http://www.withoutapeer.com/2011/03/hacking-pairwise.html
Here are my seeding predictions for each of the 4 outcomes possible tonight. All probabilities generated using KRACH from today, not what it would be after tomorrow.
UMD and CC win - 36.82% odds of occurring
http://uploads.cuttlefishtech.com/md-cc_3-17-11_15-22.html
Bemidji and CC win - 16.60% odds of occurring
http://uploads.cuttlefishtech.com/bm-cc_3-17-11_15-15.html
Bemidji and AA win - 14.47% odds of occurring
http://uploads.cuttlefishtech.com/bm-aa_3-17-11_15-09.html
UMD and AA win - 32.10% odds of occurring
http://uploads.cuttlefishtech.com/md-aa_3-17-11_15-26.html
A bit of a write-up including overall odds including all of the above 4 scenarios can be found here:
http://www.withoutapeer.com/2011/03/hacking-pairwise.html
Last edited:
Ralph Baer
Let's Go 'Tute!
Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!
The first four links include "..." instead of the actual path.
The first four links include "..." instead of the actual path.
Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!
I thought I was the only one with that problem, so I didn't say anything.The first four links include "..." instead of the actual path.
Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!
Fixed, copied and pasted wrong from the RPI thread
Fixed, copied and pasted wrong from the RPI thread
Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!
From these possibilities it is clear that for those teams that do not have to get the autobid to get in, the results most affect Colorado College(with a win their chance skyrockets), Rennselaer(their chance becomes likely with a CC loss) and Western Michigan(whose chance improves greatly with both UMD and AA wins). Of course it means everything for AA and Bemidji but they would need to win 3 nights in a row.
From these possibilities it is clear that for those teams that do not have to get the autobid to get in, the results most affect Colorado College(with a win their chance skyrockets), Rennselaer(their chance becomes likely with a CC loss) and Western Michigan(whose chance improves greatly with both UMD and AA wins). Of course it means everything for AA and Bemidji but they would need to win 3 nights in a row.
Eaglefan06
Quest to be the Best
Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!
Oh no, why would you EVER do such a thing. Shame on you!
Nah, I have him on ignore, so when he negs me (which he does, repeatedly) I don't see what he wrote.
No, I have Extra so I know who it was. I assume he gave me the neg because I had the audacity to point out that Maine is still alive.
Oh no, why would you EVER do such a thing. Shame on you!
Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!
with the wcha results tonight, maine can sstill get to 15th if things play out as follows:
Atlantic Hockey
Semifinal #2: Air Force defeats Holy Cross
Semifinal #1: RIT defeats Connecticut
Championship game: Air Force defeats RIT
CCHA
Semifinal #2: Miami defeats Notre Dame
Semifinal #1: Michigan defeats Western Michigan
Championship game: Michigan defeats Miami
Consolation game: Notre Dame defeats Western Michigan
ECAC
Semifinal #2: Cornell defeats Dartmouth
Semifinal #1: Yale defeats Colgate
Championship game: Yale defeats Cornell
Consolation game: Dartmouth defeats Colgate
Hockey East
Semifinal #2: Merrimack defeats New Hampshire
Semifinal #1: Northeastern defeats Boston College
Championship game: Merrimack defeats Northeastern
WCHA
Semifinal #2: Denver defeats Bemidji State
Semifinal #1: North Dakota defeats Colorado College
Championship game: North Dakota defeats Denver
with the wcha results tonight, maine can sstill get to 15th if things play out as follows:
Atlantic Hockey
Semifinal #2: Air Force defeats Holy Cross
Semifinal #1: RIT defeats Connecticut
Championship game: Air Force defeats RIT
CCHA
Semifinal #2: Miami defeats Notre Dame
Semifinal #1: Michigan defeats Western Michigan
Championship game: Michigan defeats Miami
Consolation game: Notre Dame defeats Western Michigan
ECAC
Semifinal #2: Cornell defeats Dartmouth
Semifinal #1: Yale defeats Colgate
Championship game: Yale defeats Cornell
Consolation game: Dartmouth defeats Colgate
Hockey East
Semifinal #2: Merrimack defeats New Hampshire
Semifinal #1: Northeastern defeats Boston College
Championship game: Merrimack defeats Northeastern
WCHA
Semifinal #2: Denver defeats Bemidji State
Semifinal #1: North Dakota defeats Colorado College
Championship game: North Dakota defeats Denver
Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!
According to RHamilton's link, Maine can even get up to 14th place. There are 642 permutations (of 294,912) where the Black Bears make the tournament.
irishfan85
New member
Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!
From what I can tell, most of them include NU winning tomorrow night, but losing in HE Finals.
From what I can tell, most of them include NU winning tomorrow night, but losing in HE Finals.
Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!
Semifinal #2: Air Force defeats Holy Cross
Semifinal #1: Connecticut defeats RIT
Championship game: Air Force defeats Connecticut
CCHA
Semifinal #2: Miami defeats Notre Dame
Semifinal #1: Michigan defeats Western Michigan
Championship game: Miami defeats Michigan
Consolation game: Notre Dame defeats Western Michigan
ECAC
Semifinal #2: Cornell defeats Dartmouth
Semifinal #1: Yale defeats Colgate
Championship game: Yale defeats Cornell
Consolation game: Dartmouth defeats Colgate
Hockey East
Semifinal #2: Merrimack defeats New Hampshire
Semifinal #1: Northeastern defeats Boston College
Championship game: Merrimack defeats Northeastern
WCHA
Semifinal #2: Denver defeats Bemidji State
Semifinal #1: North Dakota defeats Colorado College
Championship game: North Dakota defeats Denver
Drop RPI's RPI by having UConn / RIT and CC lose. And, with Maine playing Merrimack five times on the season, having Merrimack win the HEA tourney bumps up the Black Bears' RPI. Also Maine needs their 2-0-1 record against Northeastern to get factored into the TUC equation. That's why NU needs to beat BC.
Of course, this is just 1 of 240 ways to put Maine in 14th, but it took quite a bit of tinkering, so I'm using this as a pretty solid template.
Atlantic Hockey
Semifinal #2: Air Force defeats Holy Cross
Semifinal #1: Connecticut defeats RIT
Championship game: Air Force defeats Connecticut
CCHA
Semifinal #2: Miami defeats Notre Dame
Semifinal #1: Michigan defeats Western Michigan
Championship game: Miami defeats Michigan
Consolation game: Notre Dame defeats Western Michigan
ECAC
Semifinal #2: Cornell defeats Dartmouth
Semifinal #1: Yale defeats Colgate
Championship game: Yale defeats Cornell
Consolation game: Dartmouth defeats Colgate
Hockey East
Semifinal #2: Merrimack defeats New Hampshire
Semifinal #1: Northeastern defeats Boston College
Championship game: Merrimack defeats Northeastern
WCHA
Semifinal #2: Denver defeats Bemidji State
Semifinal #1: North Dakota defeats Colorado College
Championship game: North Dakota defeats Denver
Drop RPI's RPI by having UConn / RIT and CC lose. And, with Maine playing Merrimack five times on the season, having Merrimack win the HEA tourney bumps up the Black Bears' RPI. Also Maine needs their 2-0-1 record against Northeastern to get factored into the TUC equation. That's why NU needs to beat BC.
Of course, this is just 1 of 240 ways to put Maine in 14th, but it took quite a bit of tinkering, so I'm using this as a pretty solid template.
P
Priceless
Guest
Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!
Maine is eliminated. BU is on life support. Notre Dame still has a little work to do tomorrow. CC and UNH should be in now. In most scenarios I have run, CC is #12 whether they lose tonight or win the WCHA. Miami is still alive for the #1 seed in St. Louis. CHN says Yale has wrapped up the overall #1. Even with a win tonight, Dartmouth is not in - OTOH even with a loss tonight they are not eliminated. Western Michigan can lose tonight and still be a #3 seed with a win over ND tomorrow.
Maine is eliminated. BU is on life support. Notre Dame still has a little work to do tomorrow. CC and UNH should be in now. In most scenarios I have run, CC is #12 whether they lose tonight or win the WCHA. Miami is still alive for the #1 seed in St. Louis. CHN says Yale has wrapped up the overall #1. Even with a win tonight, Dartmouth is not in - OTOH even with a loss tonight they are not eliminated. Western Michigan can lose tonight and still be a #3 seed with a win over ND tomorrow.
Eaglefan06
Quest to be the Best
Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!
So Yale locked up #1 tonight.
BC locked itself into #2-3, can't fall down to #4.
So Yale locked up #1 tonight.
BC locked itself into #2-3, can't fall down to #4.
Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!
Here's what I have after the first 5 games of the evening:
http://uploads.cuttlefishtech.com/du-rit-yale-miami-bc.html
Here's what I have after the first 5 games of the evening:
http://uploads.cuttlefishtech.com/du-rit-yale-miami-bc.html
yalehockeyfan
New member
Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!
Congrats to the YALE BULLDOGS who will be the overall #1 seed heading into the NCAAs
Congrats to the YALE BULLDOGS who will be the overall #1 seed heading into the NCAAs
P
Priceless
Guest
Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!
The field might be set thanks to Western's romp and Dartmouth's loss. The only remaining question is whether Cornell will take a spot away with the autobid. The seeding still needs to be finalized as well.
The field might be set thanks to Western's romp and Dartmouth's loss. The only remaining question is whether Cornell will take a spot away with the autobid. The seeding still needs to be finalized as well.
Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!
In if Cornell loses: Nebraska-Omaha, CC, RPI
In if Cornell wins: Cornell and two of those three (UNO, CC, RPI). UNO is in the strongest position, RPI the weakest.
My current outlook on possible PWR finishes -- NCAA Hockey Tournament shaping up (I even think I got the ties right this time )
To summarize...
In if Cornell loses: Nebraska-Omaha, CC, RPI
In if Cornell wins: Cornell and two of those three (UNO, CC, RPI). UNO is in the strongest position, RPI the weakest.
My current outlook on possible PWR finishes -- NCAA Hockey Tournament shaping up (I even think I got the ties right this time
)
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Eaglefan06
Quest to be the Best
Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!
Anyone find a scenario where WMU loses to Miami, but UNH is still a 3 seed? Otherwise, it looks like BC is going out West.
Anyone find a scenario where WMU loses to Miami, but UNH is still a 3 seed? Otherwise, it looks like BC is going out West.
Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!
WCHA Championship game: Denver defeats North Dakota.
Hockey East Championship game: Boston College defeats Merrimack.
ECAC Championship game: Yale defeats Cornell.
ECAC Consolation game: Dartmouth defeats Colgate.
CCHA Championship game: Miami defeats Western Michigan.
CCHA Consolation game: Notre Dame defeats Michigan.
Atlantic Hockey Championship game: RIT defeats Air Force.
or
WCHA Championship game: North Dakota defeats Denver.
Hockey East Championship game: Boston College defeats Merrimack.
ECAC Championship game: Yale defeats Cornell.
ECAC Consolation game: Dartmouth defeats Colgate.
CCHA Championship game: Miami defeats Western Michigan.
CCHA Consolation game: Notre Dame defeats Michigan.
Atlantic Hockey Championship game: RIT defeats Air Force
WCHA Championship game: Denver defeats North Dakota.
Hockey East Championship game: Boston College defeats Merrimack.
ECAC Championship game: Yale defeats Cornell.
ECAC Consolation game: Dartmouth defeats Colgate.
CCHA Championship game: Miami defeats Western Michigan.
CCHA Consolation game: Notre Dame defeats Michigan.
Atlantic Hockey Championship game: RIT defeats Air Force.
or
WCHA Championship game: North Dakota defeats Denver.
Hockey East Championship game: Boston College defeats Merrimack.
ECAC Championship game: Yale defeats Cornell.
ECAC Consolation game: Dartmouth defeats Colgate.
CCHA Championship game: Miami defeats Western Michigan.
CCHA Consolation game: Notre Dame defeats Michigan.
Atlantic Hockey Championship game: RIT defeats Air Force
P
Priceless
Guest
Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!
This is fantastic. We're not going to know anything until the last moment.
For example, if Michigan wins the CCHA consolation game, UNH drops down to t13 (a 4 seed) and BC goes west. But if Merrimack were to beat them in the Hockey East final, UNH would jump back up to 12. Then if Miami wins the CCHA, they drop back down to t13. The difference is huge, because if UNH is a 4, BC goes west (probably St. Louis) and Miami or Denver would come east to Manchester. That would totally change the brackets.
Quite a conundrum for BC fans, too. Win tomorrow and go west, lose tomorrow and stay east. Or lose tomorrow and still go west.
This is fantastic. We're not going to know anything until the last moment.
For example, if Michigan wins the CCHA consolation game, UNH drops down to t13 (a 4 seed) and BC goes west. But if Merrimack were to beat them in the Hockey East final, UNH would jump back up to 12. Then if Miami wins the CCHA, they drop back down to t13. The difference is huge, because if UNH is a 4, BC goes west (probably St. Louis) and Miami or Denver would come east to Manchester. That would totally change the brackets.
Quite a conundrum for BC fans, too. Win tomorrow and go west, lose tomorrow and stay east. Or lose tomorrow and still go west.