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The States: Doing Their Own Thing...
- Thread starter MissThundercat
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Re: The States: Doing Their Own Thing...
It's a wave, not a tsunami.
But a one can hope.
It's a wave, not a tsunami.
But a one can hope.
FadeToBlack&Gold
Microlot Marxist
Re: The States: Doing Their Own Thing...
I'm not as sold on every special election being a litmus test as some are. At least some of these districts have to have been gerrymandered by the right, and won't flip (see: Ossoff in GA).
I'm not as sold on every special election being a litmus test as some are. At least some of these districts have to have been gerrymandered by the right, and won't flip (see: Ossoff in GA).
Re: The States: Doing Their Own Thing...
I'd say there's a definitive pattern here. Forget about 2016 - Dem candidates in races across the country are outperforming Obama in 2012. Now that doesn't mean +20 GOP seats are all going to flip (although the PA one did) but any Gooper sitting in a +10 GOP seat should have a big target on his/her back including people once thought to be safe...
I'd say there's a definitive pattern here. Forget about 2016 - Dem candidates in races across the country are outperforming Obama in 2012. Now that doesn't mean +20 GOP seats are all going to flip (although the PA one did) but any Gooper sitting in a +10 GOP seat should have a big target on his/her back including people once thought to be safe...
Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Re: The States: Doing Their Own Thing...
Think of them as offsets. You can get a pretty good idea of how even wildly gerrymandered districts lean by looking at the precinct results from the last like election. So if the GOP wins this R+25 seat by 10 points they are in a world of hurt.
Here's the 538 viewer guide.
As we've mentioned before, there is a stinger in the tail of gerrymandering -- it essentially bleeds down 15-point districts to 10 points in order to cheat toss-up districts up to 5 points. And that works great, as long as you're getting a similar electorate pattern from prior elections. It's how nationwide the GOP stole about 30 seats from their voters and turned a net 1 million vote loss into a comfortable House majority.
But. Think about what happens when the electorate starts to move against you. You're OK for a while because you've built in that 5-point handicap in the toss-up districts After 5 points those fall but they would have fallen anyway. But at 10 points even your 15-point districts start to fall because that's where you stole those other votes from. So by gerrymandering to create a majority you are risking turning a wave election into a tsunami.
The current D swing has been around 17 points, which nobody in their right mind think they can maintain, especially in a world where Republicans don't even get news anymore. But if that swing is 12 points in November it could very well have the impact of 17 points because they borrowed from Peter to pay Paul. How many sitting Republican Members won by more than 17 points last time? (Answer: about 80). Whereas a typical midterm sees a 35-seat loss for the incumbent party we could see that double if the numbers fall into that chasm the GOP created for itself.
Think of them as offsets. You can get a pretty good idea of how even wildly gerrymandered districts lean by looking at the precinct results from the last like election. So if the GOP wins this R+25 seat by 10 points they are in a world of hurt.
Here's the 538 viewer guide.
As we've mentioned before, there is a stinger in the tail of gerrymandering -- it essentially bleeds down 15-point districts to 10 points in order to cheat toss-up districts up to 5 points. And that works great, as long as you're getting a similar electorate pattern from prior elections. It's how nationwide the GOP stole about 30 seats from their voters and turned a net 1 million vote loss into a comfortable House majority.
But. Think about what happens when the electorate starts to move against you. You're OK for a while because you've built in that 5-point handicap in the toss-up districts After 5 points those fall but they would have fallen anyway. But at 10 points even your 15-point districts start to fall because that's where you stole those other votes from. So by gerrymandering to create a majority you are risking turning a wave election into a tsunami.
The current D swing has been around 17 points, which nobody in their right mind think they can maintain, especially in a world where Republicans don't even get news anymore. But if that swing is 12 points in November it could very well have the impact of 17 points because they borrowed from Peter to pay Paul. How many sitting Republican Members won by more than 17 points last time? (Answer: about 80). Whereas a typical midterm sees a 35-seat loss for the incumbent party we could see that double if the numbers fall into that chasm the GOP created for itself.
Last edited:
French Rage
NICKERSON HAS [CENSORED]
Re: The States: Doing Their Own Thing...
The question is, will Lesko's suit covered with question marks help or hurt him in this political environment?
The question is, will Lesko's suit covered with question marks help or hurt him in this political environment?
St. Clown
Liberal Rebel Scum, apparently
mookie1995
there's a good buck in that racket.
dxmnkd316
Lucia Apologist
dxmnkd316
Lucia Apologist
Re: The States: Doing Their Own Thing...
The whole thing to remember with these special elections is that both sides are using it as the front lines. It's a different story when it comes to organizing 435+ separate elections, nationwide, on the same time frame. So the Democrats can get one community to act. Can they translate this to a national turnout? TBD.
The whole thing to remember with these special elections is that both sides are using it as the front lines. It's a different story when it comes to organizing 435+ separate elections, nationwide, on the same time frame. So the Democrats can get one community to act. Can they translate this to a national turnout? TBD.
Re: The States: Doing Their Own Thing...
I think the benefit for Dems is they don't need to flip seats in Kansas to win the House. A bloodbath in NJ, PA (partially thanks to new maps although Lamb won under the old ones), and NY gets them almost half way home. There's plenty of other Dem leaning states with both open and swing seats (VA, IL, CO, CA, WA) before you get to the next tier of Goopers sitting in Hillary won seats in places like Florida, Texas, and Arizona.
I think the benefit for Dems is they don't need to flip seats in Kansas to win the House. A bloodbath in NJ, PA (partially thanks to new maps although Lamb won under the old ones), and NY gets them almost half way home. There's plenty of other Dem leaning states with both open and swing seats (VA, IL, CO, CA, WA) before you get to the next tier of Goopers sitting in Hillary won seats in places like Florida, Texas, and Arizona.
Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Re: The States: Doing Their Own Thing...
Very good point. It's easier for the GOP to amplify signature seat races into national campaigns: they just add more money. For the Dems it is much harder because it's people power, knocking door to door, educating people, getting them off the couch. Every cycle the GOP scares their witless zombies, well, witless with their 3 Gs frontal assault. The Dems had to go high like Michelle said, partly because well yeah that's what a party of academics is going to do, but also partly because we simply did not have the same kind of red meat Planet Terror that our constituents were afraid of.
That ought to be different now. But it ought to have been different in 2016. Dump didn't conceal what he was going to do. It was balls to the wall white power fascism from his magic elevator ride. And yet people were still so repelled by their candidate that they couldn't get off the couch.
The question is, can an empty space at the top of the ticket beat 2016? That's really all that's changed. I am betting -- heck, the whole country is betting everything -- that it can.
Very good point. It's easier for the GOP to amplify signature seat races into national campaigns: they just add more money. For the Dems it is much harder because it's people power, knocking door to door, educating people, getting them off the couch. Every cycle the GOP scares their witless zombies, well, witless with their 3 Gs frontal assault. The Dems had to go high like Michelle said, partly because well yeah that's what a party of academics is going to do, but also partly because we simply did not have the same kind of red meat Planet Terror that our constituents were afraid of.
That ought to be different now. But it ought to have been different in 2016. Dump didn't conceal what he was going to do. It was balls to the wall white power fascism from his magic elevator ride. And yet people were still so repelled by their candidate that they couldn't get off the couch.
The question is, can an empty space at the top of the ticket beat 2016? That's really all that's changed. I am betting -- heck, the whole country is betting everything -- that it can.
bronconick
Yep, still here
Re: The States: Doing Their Own Thing...
With most of the votes in early.
Lesko (R) 82,294
Tipirneni (D) 73,188
Only 20,000 or so from today's votes outstanding.
So a 53-47 win in a +25 Republican district.
With most of the votes in early.
Lesko (R) 82,294
Tipirneni (D) 73,188
Only 20,000 or so from today's votes outstanding.
So a 53-47 win in a +25 Republican district.
mookie1995
there's a good buck in that racket.
Re: The States: Doing Their Own Thing...
are you already accepting that nobody is going to replace Harvey's $,$$$,$$$?
are you already accepting that nobody is going to replace Harvey's $,$$$,$$$?
Handyman
Hug someone you care about...
Re: The States: Doing Their Own Thing...
Interesting...I believe 538 predicted (upper single digits) and this is even worse. This district is old white people.
The GOP dumped a ton of money into this race too (the DNC didnt though a few PACs did) if I read right, along with Trump helping I think, and they barely held on to win. It would be interesting to talk to pollsters inside the GOP right now because they have to be looking at what is happening and crapping their pants. Trump is an anchor and everyone aligning with him is being dragged down.
Interesting...I believe 538 predicted (upper single digits) and this is even worse. This district is old white people.
The GOP dumped a ton of money into this race too (the DNC didnt though a few PACs did) if I read right, along with Trump helping I think, and they barely held on to win. It would be interesting to talk to pollsters inside the GOP right now because they have to be looking at what is happening and crapping their pants. Trump is an anchor and everyone aligning with him is being dragged down.
Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Re: The States: Doing Their Own Thing...
Something like 18 of the top 20 individuals donors give their money substantially or exclusively to the GOP.
The only Republican candidate who had a non-trivial amount of actual grassroots support, as distinct from Monty Burns' Battalion of Lawyers, was -- ironically -- Dump.
Something like 18 of the top 20 individuals donors give their money substantially or exclusively to the GOP.
The only Republican candidate who had a non-trivial amount of actual grassroots support, as distinct from Monty Burns' Battalion of Lawyers, was -- ironically -- Dump.
Re: The States: Doing Their Own Thing...
Yeah, this is surprising and not good for Republicans on multiple levels. Dems didn't compete too hard on this one and it is primarily filled with old whities. Beyond that though, I saw in the early voting that Republican ballots were being returned % wise at the same levels as Trump's 20%+ victory, yet the Gooper only won by 6%. Conventional wisdom thus far has been that the increase in Dem vote totals is due to either a re-engaged left that's been sitting out elections after 2008 as well as maybe some ancestral Dems coming home in places like rural PA where the party used to perform better. None of that applies to this Arizona district, so the question becomes are Republican voters voting against their party's candidates?
Yeah, this is surprising and not good for Republicans on multiple levels. Dems didn't compete too hard on this one and it is primarily filled with old whities. Beyond that though, I saw in the early voting that Republican ballots were being returned % wise at the same levels as Trump's 20%+ victory, yet the Gooper only won by 6%. Conventional wisdom thus far has been that the increase in Dem vote totals is due to either a re-engaged left that's been sitting out elections after 2008 as well as maybe some ancestral Dems coming home in places like rural PA where the party used to perform better. None of that applies to this Arizona district, so the question becomes are Republican voters voting against their party's candidates?
Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Re: The States: Doing Their Own Thing...
538 has been cautious about the special elections but they're really lowering the boom on the GOP after this one.
BTW, the final margin was 5%, a 20-point D swing.
538 has been cautious about the special elections but they're really lowering the boom on the GOP after this one.
BTW, the final margin was 5%, a 20-point D swing.
mookie1995
there's a good buck in that racket.
So why didn’t they compete?
Looks pretty flipping stupid now
Do you job (as some person is known to say)
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