I was reading the Las Vegas R-J (because candidly, if you're going to read a daily newspaper for entertainment purposes, it's hard to go wrong with Las Vegas'), and I saw this article.
http://www.reviewjournal.com/politics/own-small-business-brace-obamacare-pain
It struck me because that is exactly what happened to my business.
My business is apparently one of the small percentage that doesn't renew in November or December. Our renewal comes up now, in May. We've been working with our broker. We got our quotes last week.
Now, I should disclose that my company is probably one of the few still around that pays the entire premium for the employee coverage. We've done that primarily to keep good employees with us, and it's worked. If they want their families covered, they have to pick up the premium for the additional coverage.
Our quote this year is for a premium increase of 49%.
I'll be blunt with you, we're debating whether to continue. Right now we've got the broker working with the employees. I'd say there is probably an 80-90% chance we just drop the coverage for the employees entirely. First, we can't take that hit. Second, that will be a big hit for the employees who have elected family coverage. Maybe we throw a little extra pay at them to help with their coverage. The broker tells us that a number of the employees will likely qualify for subsidies on the exchange, and in some cases, significant subsidies.
I'll be interested to gauge the reaction of our employees when we do this. My guess is they will initially be unhappy with us, as opposed to the President or anyone else. Whether that translates at the voting booth or not is questionable to me.
But I thought I would pass along at least one piece of anecdotal evidence from a small business owner. If my experience is the norm for similarly situated businesses, it seems pretty clear there's going to be a shifting in the small business area from employer covered insurance to insurance (and subsidies) on the exchange.