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The NFL Thread (cont'd)

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Re: The NFL Thread (cont'd)

I dunno what is worse... The $1000 for the parking spot or paying $200 to stand outside JerryWorld and watching the game on the big screen... At least with the RV you can bring in your own booze...
 
Re: The NFL Thread (cont'd)

20 years ago today was the beginning of my football hell when Scott Norwood blew that kick. All I wanted was 1 **** Super Bowl.
 
Re: The NFL Thread (cont'd)

Go figure. The experts think that with no salary cap this year, Jerry Jones, Dan Snyder and some other rich owners will go crazy in free agency. Instead, no one does to the point where the Union is pointing to last year's free agency period as signs of collusion.

So, after that, everyone figures that teams will stand pat on their hot seat coaches because who wants to pay two sets of coaches with no football and with a lengthy lockout, a new coach won't have any time to install his systems before regular season games start. So, naturally, coaches are fired left and right.
 
Re: The NFL Thread (cont'd)

bronconick said:
Go figure. The experts think that with no salary cap this year, Jerry Jones, Dan Snyder and some other rich owners will go crazy in free agency. Instead, no one does to the point where the Union is pointing to last year's free agency period as signs of collusion.

So, after that, everyone figures that teams will stand pat on their hot seat coaches because who wants to pay two sets of coaches with no football and with a lengthy lockout, a new coach won't have any time to install his systems before regular season games start. So, naturally, coaches are fired left and right.
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I don't know, I still think that's still happening to some extent. I mean, how do you explain Marvin Lewis still having a job?
 
Re: The NFL Thread (cont'd)

WeWantMore said:
I don't know, I still think that's still happening to some extent. I mean, how do you explain Marvin Lewis still having a job?
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Well, he made some demands, and the Bengals accommodated.

Other than that, the players thing doesn't surprise me. The coaches thing does.
 
Re: The NFL Thread (cont'd)

dxmnkd316 said:
I have ZERO doubts the line started in favor of the packers because bookies know packer fans will bet their team, spread be ****ed. I have a hunch that this Super Bowl will feature one of the largest total losses on a single NFL game and the bookies know this and will exploit the hell out of it. The line became meaningless as soon as Chicago lost.
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The oddsmakers set the line in an attempt to get the same amount of money on either side of it. Payouts on straight odds bets are 10:11 so if the money is the same on both sides of the line they win no matter what. It's the whole objective. Balance it out and pay less than even and they collect ~9% regardless. As such, lines will change over the course of a timespan to make sure that 9% remains intact.

The same goes for money line bets though it's a bit more complex and futures are a bit different, but generally speaking the oddsmakers set it up so they can't lose.

That said, anyone who thinks a few small-time Green Bay fans who bet like fools have the power to move the line is either completely naive or just a flat out idiot. The Super Bowl is the most bet on event in the world and the whales still have enough in-tow to place bets in attempt to move the line more to their liking. Them, and the rest of the big money wagerers don't give a crap who wins the game. Like the house, all they care about is making money. Hence, and again, anyone who thinks that a few GB fans who want to slap down a few hondos based on wishful thinking have the monetary power to move a line on a game like this...is a bonafide moron.
 
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Re: The NFL Thread (cont'd)

XYZ said:
The oddsmakers set the line in an attempt to get the same amount of money on either side of it. Payouts on straight odds bets are 10:11 so if the money is the same on both sides of the line they win no matter what. It's the whole objective. Balance it out and pay less than even and they collect ~9% regardless. As such, lines will change over the course of a timespan to make sure that 9% remains intact.

The same goes for money line bets though it's a bit more complex and futures are a bit different, but generally speaking the oddsmakers set it up so they can't lose.

That said, anyone who thinks a few small-time Green Bay fans who bet like fools have the power to move the line is either completely naive or just a flat out idiot. The Super Bowl is the most bet on event in the world and the whales still have enough in-tow to place bets in attempt to move the line more to their liking. Them, and the rest of the big money wagerers don't give a crap who wins the game. Like the house, all they care about is making money. Hence, and again, anyone who thinks that a few GB fans who want to slap down a few hondos based on wishful thinking have the monetary power to move a line on a game like this...is a bonafide moron.
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No, I definitely get that the line is a moving target and generally speaking they move the line to encourage betting. However, Packer fans are a whole different breed of gambler. They'll bet their team to cover even if the line was 100. They blindly slap down money and the Super Bowl will bring them out of the woodwork. I know this is all anecdotal, but I honestly thought it was a well-known effect. I'm not saying they're going to move it 10 points, but it definitely has an effect.
 
Re: The NFL Thread (cont'd)

WeWantMore said:
The same generally holds true for the Steelers though too. Two very public teams.
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packer fans are a whole different level of stupid. Pittsburgh, I agree, has some dumb fans.

This whole gambling issue was brought up on Mike & Mike this week and they said the same thing I did about gambling and the Packers' fanbase.
 
Re: The NFL Thread (cont'd)

Whale/sharp money is not coming near this game until late next week, unless the number so so whacked that they could play it, then play it again after it corrects. Lines for GB for the past few weeks have been written about because they start so high for GB knowing that GB follows will bet it. Sharp money was going for CHI ob Sunday- of course they were wrong, but thy was written as well.

I just hope it moves toward PIT so I can lay money line odds on GB and hedge my 28-1 Venetian future I have on PIT. I'd hate to think the high lay now will eat so much of my profit. :(
 
Re: The NFL Thread (cont'd)

Yep.
FO_DougFarrar
And now, we have traversed into the depths of insanity. They are asking Matt Millen about draft prospects.
5 minutes ago via web
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FO_DougFarrar
Millen on the draft... Bernie Madoff on Mad Money? Bill Bavasi running MLB.com's free agency coverage? The President of Egypt on CNET?
2 minutes ago via web
Click to expand...
 
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