Re: The FIFA World Cup Thread (Spoilers Welcome)
Ok the more I thought about that 484 from the NBA the more I'm pretty sure someone screwed up and just took the number of standard deviations away that Germany's 7 was and multiplied it by the NBA average rather than applying the same number of standard deviations to the NBA average.
Just doing a rough calculation, 7/1.89= 3.7 standard deviations. The 538 article says the standard deviation for the NBA is 12. 12x3.7=44.44. Taking the 15th ranked team in the NBA's point average for this year and adding it that equals 145 points scored, which makes much more sense. Very rudimentary and perhaps wrong, but much more logical. This also puts the NFL one at 75 points. Using the strategy that I think ESPN did, they did 3.7 the average, plus the standard deviation, which gets 103.66.
Maybe I'm the one that's mistaken but it seems to make much more sense. 7 goals has happened before in soccer, many times. 102 has never happened in the NFL and 484 has certainly never happened in the NBA. However, 75 (ok 73) has happened once before in the NFL, and in the 80's NBA teams would reach the 140s not routinely, but a decent amount.