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A bad sign as usually a referee who works a semi does not work the final. But as a 4th all is not lost.
I think plateauing is legit, but at the same time, its to be expected because we haven't cared about soccer for long enough and haven't had the academy structures to develop players long enough. The interesting comparison to me is the euro teams that have never won it...What does suck is that we need to take the game to a team like Belgium. Looking back, I would have liked to see how we would have played Germany if we had beaten Portugal and known we were through. I assume some guys would have rested, etc but with nothing to really lose, would we have attacked more like we did in the final 15 minutes of the Belgium game? I understand its not fair to focus on that stretch because Belgium had no reason to really attack at that point but you have to wonder how they would have played with advancement certain...would he have opened things up? Tried Wondo/Johansson uptop?
I wouldn't say we've plateaued. It's more the fact we're between generations. The Dempsey/Donovan/Howard era is ending and the new generation is beginning. It's not a plateau, more like bad timing.
I don't argue with you that its not truly fair to compare to European sides yes we compare favorably to the best the world has to offer outside of UEFA and CONMEBOL but that still doesnt mean we haven't plateaued. We have and its likely we will be stuck between getting out of the group, advancing to the occasional quarterfinal for awhile...to say thats not true because we aren't likely to the best of UEFA/CONMEBOL in the knockout rounds doesn't change the fact that we haven't. If you're saying we haven't plateaued because the gap between Mexico/S. Korea/Japan/Australia/USA and the best of Europe/S. America is so large which means we have alot of room to continue to grow before we catch that group...I guess I could see that but I still disagree.
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I put the tiers this way:I dunno if he's saying that but it seems reasonable. It seems like every spin of the WC wheel there's 5 serious teams -- call this the Germany Tier. Then there's 5 "meh, who knows, maybe they'll catch a couple breaks" teams -- call this the Argentina Tier. The next tier down is empty -- or I suppose it's permanently occupied solely by England. Then comes the "they might catch a good team napping and get a draw" teams -- the Nigeria Tier. Then comes the Australia "don't forget to take pictures" Tier.
Prior to 2002 we were in the Australia Tier. Since then we've been working slowly up through the Nigeria Tier until it looks like we're near the top of it. It will probably take another 12 years at the same pace just to climb through the England Tier, but that seems to be our most likely future. The good news is this climb is for keeps -- even if we have a really crappy WC one of these times we're not going to tumble back down the ladder; every step seems to be secure.
Also, I think we're going to be making the climb with Mexico, which as was pointed out below will give us something to compare ourselves to, and importantly a reason to keep incrementally improving even if the result is still a Round of 16 exit every time. Playing urine dodgeball with the Mexicans will probably be our big incentive until we finally (together) break into the Argentina Tier sometime around 2028.
(Of course by then the two nations might as well be united as Aztlán anyway...
Like I said, the real difference between T2 and T3 is geography.
There is no round of 16 in a 13-team tournament.
Alright, advanced out of the Group Stage.
