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The definitive tournament speculation thread

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

PrezdeJohnson09 said:
Usually this is correct, However Manhattanville not only didn't get Pool B last year after winning the ECAC W title, they got left out of the tournament all together!
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Anyone remember what the comparisons of the 2 teams were outside of the fact that Manhatanville won their tournament last year?
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

peddler said:
Anyone remember what the comparisons of the 2 teams were outside of the fact that Manhatanville won their tournament last year?
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I'm pretty sure Elmira won it like 3-1. But everything was pretty close except SOS.
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

NUProf said:
That was my notable exception :D
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There's another. In 2007-08 Manhattanville beat Elmira in the ECACW title game but Elmira received the pool B bid.
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

NUProf said:
If Elmira loses to Neumann, they might give the Pool B to Neumann (for some reason [with one notable exception] Pool B seems to always end up in the hands of the ECAC West Champ). We never know how the committee figures things out, which makes these threads fun, but frustrating. OTOH, Elmira would still get the second Pool C slot.
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Out on a limb (albeit, a strong one) Elmira gets the Pool B regardless of next weekend's result against Neumann.
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

peddler said:
Out on a limb (albeit, a strong one) Elmira gets the Pool B regardless of next weekend's result against Neumann.
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I'm not so sure.

Neumann would have a dominating 3-1 win in head to head, have the ECAC W title, and their WP will be pretty close to Elmira's with a win.
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

PrezdeJohnson09 said:
I'm not so sure.

Neumann would have a dominating 3-1 win in head to head, have the ECAC W title, and their WP will be pretty close to Elmira's with a win.
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But if you add it all up between the 2 teams, Elmira wins SoS and RvRO? So that would give then a 3-1 in the PWC?
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

joecct said:
But if you add it all up between the 2 teams, Elmira wins SoS and RvRO? So that would give then a 3-1 in the PWC?
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Neumann gets the H2H, Elmira gets the rest, including COP by a wide margin. That's my take.
 
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CareyTUC vs. reality vs. perception vs. the Smoke Filled Room

CareyTUC vs. reality vs. perception vs. the Smoke Filled Room

Josh (and Matt) have long said that if your SoS is <.500 you should not be considered for the tournament Pool C bid.

With that logic, Castleton, Salem St, Mass-Dartmouth and Plymouth State should currently be excluded (before you go bat poop, all 3 MASCAC schools have a better SoS than Castleton, so if you include the Spartans, you have to include the riff raff).

Not the big stats guy, but if anyone of the above 3 makes it to their league finals, does their SoS cross the magic "Carey Line"?

And, is there a "Rennel Line" on Win Pct???

One more -- it appears that Oswego still is the #1 seed East -- they beat Elmira 4-1 in the criteria.
 
Re: CareyTUC vs. reality vs. perception vs. the Smoke Filled Room

Re: CareyTUC vs. reality vs. perception vs. the Smoke Filled Room

joecct said:
Josh (and Matt) have long said that if your SoS is <.500 you should not be considered for the tournament Pool C bid.

With that logic, Castleton, Salem St, Mass-Dartmouth and Plymouth State should currently be excluded (before you go bat poop, all 3 MASCAC schools have a better SoS than Castleton, so if you include the Spartans, you have to include the riff raff).

Not the big stats guy, but if anyone of the above 3 makes it to their league finals, does their SoS cross the magic "Carey Line"?

And, is there a "Rennel Line" on Win Pct???

One more -- it appears that Oswego still is the #1 seed East -- they beat Elmira 4-1 in the criteria.
Click to expand...

I'm pretty sure Oswego is locked into the #1 seed in the East. Doesn't mean they might not get a little tougher Quarterfinal matchup than originally planned though.
 
Re: CareyTUC vs. reality vs. perception vs. the Smoke Filled Room

Re: CareyTUC vs. reality vs. perception vs. the Smoke Filled Room

joecct said:
Josh (and Matt) have long said that if your SoS is <.500 you should not be considered for the tournament Pool C bid.

With that logic, Castleton, Salem St, Mass-Dartmouth and Plymouth State should currently be excluded (before you go bat poop, all 3 MASCAC schools have a better SoS than Castleton, so if you include the Spartans, you have to include the riff raff).

Not the big stats guy, but if anyone of the above 3 makes it to their league finals, does their SoS cross the magic "Carey Line"?

And, is there a "Rennel Line" on Win Pct???

One more -- it appears that Oswego still is the #1 seed East -- they beat Elmira 4-1 in the criteria.
Click to expand...

For the record, I've never said if your SOS is below .500 you shouldn't be considered for Pool C. However, I will say it does become more difficult to get the Pool C bid if the team you are up against has a good SOS and has won most of those games.

I also expect Castleton's SOS to reach or be very close to .500 after they play Norwich.

And no, I don't have a win% line. I don't really have a line for any criteria. Unlike Josh, I like to look at the full picture and examine all criteria, not just one facet of it (SOS). Speaking of Josh, it's about time for him to post his projections for last weeks rankings. It'll be interesting to see if he can get them right this time with a week to review what the NCAA results were.;)
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Well, here are this week's projections. FWIW I am not confident in what I have in the East from 8-15 considering half of the teams in the top 15 lost this week. That said, the Pool C group is fairly simple to figure out.

EAST
1- Oswego
2- Elmira
3- Plattsburgh
4- Norwich
5- Neumann
6- Castleton
7- Utica
8- Hobart
9- Williams
10- Salem State
11- Geneseo
12- Bowdoin
13- Manhattanville
14- UMass Dartmouth
15- Hamilton

WEST
1- St. Norbert
2- Adrian
3- Hamline
4- Wis. Superior
5- Wis. Stout
6- MSOE
7- Marian

Now we sort of the Pool A teams
ECAC East- Norwich
ECACNE- Curry
MCHA- Adrian
MIAC- Hamline
NCHA- St. Norbert
NESCAC- Williams
SUNYAC- Plattsburgh

Pool B
Elmira

Pool C eligible teams
EAST: Oswego, Neumann, Castleton
WEST: UWS, Wis Stout, MSOE

Again, these are not even close. The Pool C teams would be Oswego, Neumann, and Castleton

Setting up a field of...

EAST
1- Oswego
2- Elmira
3- Plattsburgh
4- Norwich
5- Neumann
6- Castleton
7- Williams
8- Curry

WEST
1- St. Norbert
2- Adrian
3- Hamline

NCAA Play-ins
Curry @ Plattsburgh
Williams @ Norwich
Castleton @ Neumann

NCAA Quarterfinals
Hamline @ St. Norbert
Adrian @ Elmira
Castleton/Neumann winner @ Oswego
Williams/Norwich winner @ Curry/Plattsburgh winner

Now where is Josh....
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

You know that Salem would be 4-2 vs ranked teams under your scenario. But they are on life support and the death panel will be meeting on Monday to pull the plug.

Ranking the pods??
1 Oswego
2 SNC
3 Elmira
4 Plattsburgh
 
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Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

joecct said:
You know that Salem would be 4-2 vs ranked teams under your scenario. But they are on life support and the death panel will be meeting on Monday to pull the plug.

Ranking the pods??
1 Oswego
2 SNC
3 Elmira
4 Plattsburgh
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1) Trust me, I would love to see Salem crack the field with a Pool C bid. I've liked them ever since cheering them on in 1992 during the NCAA FF Consolation game when they took out UWS to finish 3rd. But unfortunately, they didn't play anyone of substance outside their own league. This makes it very difficult to compare them to the rest of the teams because there is not much to base it on. The NCAA has clearly shown Salem deserves to be ranked, but they are not quite up there with Oswego, Neumann, and Castleton for the Pool C race. If there had been any hope, losing to Worcester St. crushed that dream. While the loss didn't really hurt their criteria in any dramatic way (just as we are seeing with Plattsburgh losing to unranked teams for example), a win would have certainly helped.

2) Correct. Those would be the pods for the bracket.
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

I would not call Neumann's or Castleton's OOC schedules earth shattering.

Mind you, I've signed off on pulling the plug, but the quality of OOC between CSC, NEU and SSU is just about equal.
 
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Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Matt Rennell said:
NCAA Quarterfinals
Hamline @ St. Norbert
Adrian @ Elmira
Castleton/Neumann winner @ Oswego
Williams/Norwich winner @ Curry/Plattsburgh winner

Now where is Josh....
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Which begs the question: would this be the first time everyone in the west outside of Adrian actually roots for the Bulldogs??
 
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