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The definitive tournament speculation thread

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

spwood said:
Matt,

I argued with Derek in another thread - do you think Neumann's two games this week are enough to pass Plattsburgh? Plattsburgh was two places ahead of them last week. True, Neumann beat two ranked teams, but Plattsburgh beat one as well. Plus there is still the head-to-head match-up...
Click to expand...

Try matching up Neumann with Castleton for that 3rd Pool C if Plattsburgh loses.
 
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Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Matt Rennell said:
Right now? No there is no way Plattsburgh drops. They beat a ranked team, I don't care what Neumann did. However I am guessing your more or less asking what would happen if both teams lost their conference finals.

For that I honestly don't know. Here is what I currently have in my mind without fully looking at the numbers. So take these with a grain of salt, I'll have my real projections later but this is what I expect it to look like.

Assuming St. Norbert wins the NCHA, Elmira wins the ECAC West, Norwich and Castleton make the ECAC East title game, and Plattsburgh loses the SUNYAC.

Pool C
Oswego
then two of the following: Plattsburgh, Neumann, and Castleton/Norwich loser. My hunch is it would be Plattsburgh and Neumann but that could change once I check the criteria.

If the above assumptions stay the same but Plattsburgh wins SUNYAC...

Pool C
Oswego
Neumann
Castleton/Norwich loser.
Click to expand...

While I agree with you and who you think will make the tournament, I remember a couple of years ago everybody saying Oswego was a lock to get an at large bid since they lost to Plattsburgh in the Sunyac. But after a couple of upsets they were not selected to go to the tournament. I know this is a different situation but always remember the Selection Committee can lose thier minds every once in a while.
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Matt Rennell said:
Right now? No there is no way Plattsburgh drops. They beat a ranked team, I don't care what Neumann did. However I am guessing your more or less asking what would happen if both teams lost their conference finals.

For that I honestly don't know. Here is what I currently have in my mind without fully looking at the numbers. So take these with a grain of salt, I'll have my real projections later but this is what I expect it to look like.

Assuming St. Norbert wins the NCHA, Elmira wins the ECAC West, Norwich and Castleton make the ECAC East title game, and Plattsburgh loses the SUNYAC.

Pool C
Oswego
then two of the following: Plattsburgh, Neumann, and Castleton/Norwich loser. My hunch is it would be Plattsburgh and Neumann but that could change once I check the criteria.

If the above assumptions stay the same but Plattsburgh wins SUNYAC...

Pool C
Oswego
Neumann
Castleton/Norwich loser.
Click to expand...

What I find interesting about Castleton is that only one team in the East HAD a better RNK - Oswego. That was before this weekend. Now they are 3rd behind Oswego and Platts.
 
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Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Matt Rennell said:
Why wouldn't they take 3 teams from the SUNYAC? The ECAC West has had 3 teams before.

Also, keep in mind. A Plattsburgh loss to Fredonia, again, would not hurt as much because Fredonia is not a ranked team. Assuming SNC and Norwich win their conference titles, the Pool C's would look something like this
Click to expand...

You might assume that Fredonia remains unranked by NCAA though? They could very well get pushed up after beating Oswego. If they go out and defeat PLattsburgh, I would bet they are ranked. Wouldn't that then count against Oswego and Plattsburgh for losing to a ranked team...if that were to happen?
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Stormy8174 said:
You might assume that Fredonia remains unranked by NCAA though? They could very well get pushed up after beating Oswego. If they go out and defeat PLattsburgh, I would bet they are ranked. Wouldn't that then count against Oswego and Plattsburgh for losing to a ranked team...if that were to happen?
Click to expand...

I would think that unlikely with an in-region W-L below .500, and a 2-10 record against ranked teams.
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Stormy8174 said:
You might assume that Fredonia remains unranked by NCAA though? They could very well get pushed up after beating Oswego. If they go out and defeat PLattsburgh, I would bet they are ranked. Wouldn't that then count against Oswego and Plattsburgh for losing to a ranked team...if that were to happen?
Click to expand...

It would be a stretch for them to be ranked, as peddler pointed out. That said, it still wouldn't effect Oswego or Plattsburgh because in addition to the loss, they would also add 2 wins to the RNK as well.
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Matt , regarding a Pool C bid , Is Plattsburgh in a position where they win or else Saturday night ?
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

CardinalSin said:
Matt , regarding a Pool C bid , Is Plattsburgh in a position where they win or else Saturday night ?
Click to expand...

Just a quick glance at the numbers here, if I'm wrong, Matt or Carey can chime in, but it looks to me like, assuming Fredonia is not ranked (which I do not believe they will be) the Cardinals can get Pool C even with a loss in the finals. That is, of course, assuming Elmira, Norwich, and St. Norbert all win their respective tournaments.
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

CARDS_rule_the_Burgh said:
Just a quick glance at the numbers here, if I'm wrong, Matt or Carey can chime in, but it looks to me like, assuming Fredonia is not ranked (which I do not believe they will be) the Cardinals can get Pool C even with a loss in the finals. That is, of course, assuming Elmira, Norwich, and St. Norbert all win their respective tournaments.
Click to expand...

It wont matter if Fredonia is ranked or not. Remember, Plattsburgh already has 2 wins against them, so if they were to lose and Fredonia does somehow get ranked, it would change Plattsburgh's RNK from 7-3-1 to 9-4-1 an insignificant difference.

Those 3 teams shouldn't have to win either. The only possible way I could see Plattsburgh staying home would be if St. Norbert and Elmira both lost their respective titles, even then I don't think the Cards are out. They hold a strong edge in the criteria over Neumann already and one loss shouldn't change that. Also they should beat out the loser of Norwich/Castleton as well. If SNC loses Plattsburgh should be in line for the 3rd Pool C spot regardless of what happens elsewhere.

That said, just beat Fredonia and the process becomes much easier.
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

CARDS_rule_the_Burgh said:
Amen.
Click to expand...

It has been such an odd season for the Cards , they certainly are battle tested . I cant imagine them not realizing how fortunate they are to : A. Still be playing at this point and B. Hosting another SUNYAC Championship Game .

I doubt that we will see anything but an all out , emotional , leave it on the ice performance from them Saturday . The hearts of these players are going to be filled with desire and nothing will feel better than to come from the middle of the pack to hang another banner in the Ronald B Stafford Arena .

Onward and upward from there......
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

CardinalSin said:
... The hearts of these players are going to be filled with desire and nothing will feel better than to come from the middle of the pack to hang another banner in the Ronald B Stafford Arena .

Onward and upward from there......
Click to expand...

Banner :confused: Or do you mean year patch :p ;)
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Back to tournament speculation, do we all agree Elmira is the Pool B regardless of the outcome of their final with Neumann? I have them ahead in everything but H2H even if they lose.
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

peddler said:
What I find interesting about Castleton is that only one team in the East HAD a better RNK - Oswego. That was before this weekend. Now they are 3rd behind Oswego and Platts.
Click to expand...
It's a moot issue, but 2-1-0 is the same as 4-2-0.
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

peddler said:
Back to tournament speculation, do we all agree Elmira is the Pool B regardless of the outcome of their final with Neumann? I have them ahead in everything but H2H even if they lose.
Click to expand...

If Elmira loses to Neumann, they might give the Pool B to Neumann (for some reason [with one notable exception] Pool B seems to always end up in the hands of the ECAC West Champ). We never know how the committee figures things out, which makes these threads fun, but frustrating. OTOH, Elmira would still get the second Pool C slot.
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

joecct said:
It's a moot issue, but 2-1-0 is the same as 4-2-0.
Click to expand...

Lets be clear = as a percentage 2-1-0 is the same as 4-2-0. Actually if you looked at in baseball terms a record of 4-2 would show a half game lead on a team with with a 2-1 record. Two more wins, one more loss. One to the good, divided by 2 = 1/2 :D
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

NUProf said:
If Elmira loses to Neumann, they might give the Pool B to Neumann (for some reason [with one notable exception] Pool B seems to always end up in the hands of the ECAC West Champ). We never know how the committee figures things out, which makes these threads fun, but frustrating. OTOH, Elmira would still get the second Pool C slot.
Click to expand...

Usually this is correct, However Manhattanville not only didn't get Pool B last year after winning the ECAC W title, they got left out of the tournament all together!
 
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