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The definitive tournament speculation thread

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

XYZ said:
I should have added: Though a St. Norbert loss makes it 7-4 which creates an interesting set of circumstances, of varying variety, dependent on who emerges from the MCHA.
Click to expand...

Won't it just make all the play-ins go to the East and the four western teams get byes to the quarterfinals?
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

PrezdeJohnson09 said:
Won't it just make all the play-ins go to the East and the four western teams get byes to the quarterfinals?
Click to expand...

It might do a variety of things, with that being one possible outcome.
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Won't it just make all the play-ins go to the East and the four western teams get byes to the quarterfinals?

The West selection committee is secretly hoping SNC loses. This way they can than get four teams into the tournament and and byes to the quarterfinals. Thus two western teams @ the Final Four.
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

VT bragging rights said:
Won't it just make all the play-ins go to the East and the four western teams get byes to the quarterfinals?

The West selection committee is secretly hoping SNC loses. This way they can than get four teams into the tournament and and byes to the quarterfinals. Thus two western teams @ the Final Four.
Click to expand...

If SNC wins, the committee may give 3 byes to the West by sending Adrian to Western NY (or bringing Western NY to Adrian).
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

VermontfaninNY said:
Exactly. ECAC W is the toughest. The SUNYAC is a close second. NCHA is often, its not even close this year.
Click to expand...

Not to stir the fire any more, but I like the metric shown in Matt's post showing records against ranked teams outside of your own conference. By that measure, SUNYAC is stronger than the ECAC-W. I don't think there is anywhere enough information to compare league strength between the East Region and West Region.
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

NUProf said:
If SNC wins, the committee may give 3 byes to the West by sending Adrian to Western NY (or bringing Western NY to Adrian).
Click to expand...

Or they give 2 byes to the west and 3 to the east.

Play-ins
NCHA Champ @ Hamline
Curry @ Norwich
Hamilton @ Neumann

NCAA Quarterfinals
NCHA Champ/Hamline winner @ St. Norbert
Curry/Norwich winner @ Plattsburgh
Hamilton/Neumann winner @ Oswego
Adrian @ Elmira

If I had to guess, I imagine this is what Webb was referring to. If SNC did lose and it was a 7/4 split, this would be the most logical bracket to give the highest possible seeds the byes. You would have the top 2 seeds in the west and top 3 in the east getting byes.
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

There will be upsets somewhere. Geneseo is also within 500 miles of Adrian
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

I am somewhat new to all this but does NCAA do another "smoke-filled room ranking" after Confetence tourneys but before NCAA playoffs?
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

puckrfactor said:
I am somewhat new to all this but does NCAA do another "smoke-filled room ranking" after Confetence tourneys but before NCAA playoffs?
Click to expand...

Best way to understand this is to review the first 2 posts on this thread. I think Josh provides both a purely factual, and then a more realistic, approach to understanding the process. It helped me a lot last year which was my first trying to understand what this was all about. Bottom line is more rankings to come, the last (which they actually use to seed the tournament) is not published.
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Ok thanks. Like Josh says "It is impossible to predict with accuracy the teams that will be selected into the tournament".

Now I get it !!!
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Ok everybody take it easy while making fun of me ;) but here is my prediction:

East: Oswego, Norwich, Castleton, Plattsburgh, Elmira, Curry Salem St.
West St. Norbert, Adrian, MSOE, Hamline
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

This may be USCHO Extra content, but Lerch's prediction is for an 8-3 split or 7-4 if SNC loses with the Neumann/Utica winner left out.
E1: Oswego
E2: Elmira
E3: Plattsburgh
E4: Norwich
E5: Castleton
E6: Neumann/Utica
E7: Hamilton
E8: Curry
W1: St. Norbert
W2: Adrian
W3: Hamline
 
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Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

puckrfactor said:
I am somewhat new to all this but does NCAA do another "smoke-filled room ranking" after Confetence tourneys but before NCAA playoffs?
Click to expand...

Yes.


VT bragging rights said:
The West selection committee is secretly hoping SNC loses. This way they can than get four teams into the tournament and and byes to the quarterfinals. Thus two western teams @ the Final Four.
Click to expand...

That is an option, but not the only one.
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Ok everybody take it easy while making fun of me but here is my prediction:

East: Oswego, Norwich, Castleton, Plattsburgh, Elmira, Curry Salem St.
West St. Norbert, Adrian, MSOE, Hamline

Not bad- I see Salem St must have got the NESCAC AQ Automatic Qualifier. Thats one way of not having Midd in the tournament
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

VT bragging rights said:
Ok everybody take it easy while making fun of me but here is my prediction:

East: Oswego, Norwich, Castleton, Plattsburgh, Elmira, Curry Salem St.
West St. Norbert, Adrian, MSOE, Hamline

Not bad- I see Salem St must have got the NESCAC AQ Automatic Qualifier. Thats one way of not having Midd in the tournament
Click to expand...

Salam State winning the NESCAC AQ....

Pigs can fly:rolleyes:
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Some Comparisons -- Courtesy of USCHO and the NCAA.
Code: 
Castleton vs Salem State 
WIN 0.8478  1  0.7273  0 
SOS 0.4882  0  0.5000  1 
H2H 0- 0- 0 0  0- 0- 0 0 
COP 2- 1- 1 0  3- 1- 0 1 
RNK 4- 2- 0 0  2- 1- 0 0 
========================
 PTS        1         2

Elmira vs Salem State 
WIN 0.6800  0  0.7273  1 
[B]SOS 0.5770  1  0.5000  0 [/B]
H2H 0- 0- 0 0  0- 0- 0 0 
COP 0- 0- 1 1  0- 1- 0 0 
RNK 9- 5- 2 0  2- 1- 0 1 
========================= 
PTS         2        2

Geneseo vs Salem State 
WIN 0.6667  0  0.7273  1 
SOS 0.5142  1  0.5000  0 
H2H 0- 0- 0 0  0- 0- 0 0 
COP 0- 0- 0 0  0- 0- 0 0 
RNK 3- 4- 1 0  2- 1- 0 1 
========================== 
PTS         1        2

Neumann vs Salem State 
WIN 0.6200  0  0.7273  1 
SOS 0.5401  1  0.5000  0 
H2H 0- 0- 0 0  0- 0- 0 0 
COP 0- 0- 1 0  1- 0- 0 1 
RNK 7- 6- 2 0  2- 1- 0 1 
=========================== 
PTS         1        3

Plattsburgh vs Salem State 
WIN 0.7000  0  0.7273  1 
SOS 0.5268  1  0.5000  0 
H2H 0- 0- 0 0  0- 0- 0 0 
COP 0- 0- 0 0  0- 0- 0 0 
RNK 6- 3- 1 0  2- 1- 0 1 
============================ 
PTS         1         2

Salem State vs Utica 
WIN 0.7273  1  0.6739  0 
SOS 0.5000  0  0.5689  1 
H2H 0- 0- 0 0  0- 0- 0 0 
COP 4- 0- 0 0  2- 0- 0 0 
RNK 2- 1- 0 1  6- 7- 2 0 
========================= 
PTS         2         1

It's a lot closer than anyone thinks, particularly thanks to the pesky record vs. ranked opponents.
 
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