The 2nd Term - Round 1 - Diving for Dollars

[Rover]

Re: The 2nd Term - Round 1 - Diving for Dollars

Think of the deficit as $1T annually or $10T over 10 years (the CBO's scoring cycle, I don't think they ever go out further than that).

So, what's happened already? $1T in previously agreed upon cuts pre-sequester. That's an easy one with the wars winding down. $2T tax revenue increase (payroll tax expires, rates higher, cap gains higher, estate tax). $1T sequester cuts, which will probably end up 50/50 between defense again and discretionary.

So that's $4T in reductions over 10 years, or 400Bn out of the 1T annual deficits. With the upcoming sequester/debt limit/govt shutdown all hitting around the same time, a deal is already in reach. .5T in tax hikes by "broadening the tax base" already offered up by The Boner thru tax code changes plus I'm expecting a rise in the gas tax to pay for infrastructure improvements. Offsetting that is .5T in savings thru entitlement reform including chained CPI.

At this point that's half of the deficit reduction achieved. A good portion of the rest has to come from economic growth. What knuckdraggers don't understand is that the voters, not the Dems, are the ones who will not stand for cuts in their entitlements. If the GOP is so hell bent on doing so, throw out a proposal with some specifics. I won't be holding my breath.

 

[geezer]

Re: The 2nd Term - Round 1 - Diving for Dollars

Think of the deficit as $1T annually or $10T over 10 years (the CBO's scoring cycle, I don't think they ever go out further than that).

So, what's happened already? $1T in previously agreed upon cuts pre-sequester. That's an easy one with the wars winding down. $2T tax revenue increase (payroll tax expires, rates higher, cap gains higher, estate tax). $1T sequester cuts, which will probably end up 50/50 between defense again and discretionary.

So that's $4T in reductions over 10 years, or 400Bn out of the 1T annual deficits. With the upcoming sequester/debt limit/govt shutdown all hitting around the same time, a deal is already in reach. .5T in tax hikes by "broadening the tax base" already offered up by The Boner thru tax code changes plus I'm expecting a rise in the gas tax to pay for infrastructure improvements. Offsetting that is .5T in savings thru entitlement reform including chained CPI.

At this point that's half of the deficit reduction achieved. A good portion of the rest has to come from economic growth. What knuckdraggers don't understand is that the voters, not the Dems, are the ones who will not stand for cuts in their entitlements. If the GOP is so hell bent on doing so, throw out a proposal with some specifics. I won't be holding my breath.

Today's ultra-liberal GOP has proven they won't stand for any cuts in spending. In recent negotiations, Obama represented wishy-washy conservatism, and the GOP stood for simple obstructionism without an agenda. Obama talked a good game about being responsible, but in the end when it counted he was just as spineless as the Republicans.

The way this works is that Obama started out by saying he could easily pocket $800 billion in revenue "for free" but was willing to dangle huge spending cuts in front of John Boehner in order to obtain billions more. That was a pure Pete Peterson agenda totally detached from the basic economic reality of the present day—high unemployment, low inflation, and ultra-low interest rates. But Boehner turned that balanced deal down, at which point the natural strategic move for Obama would have been to firm up his position and go over the cliff in a too-the-mattresses fight for the $800 billion he believed he could secure. Instead, Obama blinked and settled for more like $600 billion in tax revenue in exchange for the guarantee that he'd be able to secure the one year UI extension, the five year extension of stimulus credits for poor people, and the clean energy production tax credits.

 

[FreshFish]

Re: The 2nd Term - Round 1 - Diving for Dollars

All this talk about the "fiscal cliff" was worse than a waste of time.

Deficit considerations should be secondary to whatever it takes to promote economic growth. Without growth nothing works as it is "supposed" to anyway, above-average growth all by itself brings a host of secondary gains along with it.

No one in DC seems to understand even the most basic concepts of economics or finance or even accounting!

Rule # 1 for me would be that the President, Treasury Secretary, and all 535 members of Congress be required to complete their own tax returns completely on their own. No accountants nor software for them!

They wrote these rules, they should live by them too.

 

[Rover]

Re: The 2nd Term - Round 1 - Diving for Dollars

Interesting but long read on the whole debacle:

http://www.nationaljournal.com/cong...-plan-o-inside-the-fiscal-cliff-saga-20130102

Economic growth won't happen in a meaningful way until rampant uncertainty over the budget process is solved. That means neutering the nutbags that populate the House GOP. Every three months can't see a debt limit cliffhanger. As the Prez correctly framed the issue last night by saying: Congress can't refuse to pay bills its already incurred. Back in the 90's the Clinton budgets and agenda were clear about fulfilling his promise of balancing the budget and then paying down the debt (as opposed to launching gimmicky tax cuts for campaign contributors, ie The Bush Plan). That sort of stability drove up investment in the US and thus helped create jobs. As Knuckledraggerism just got broken with this latest vote, so it needs to keep being driven into the ground with the upcoming budget deal. No more delays.

 

[mookie1995]

..... No more delays.

So when is bho going to present a plan to balance a budget? Present that, sell the public and get the votes in congress. It's not some db rep from ohio's job to do so.

Lets see it. Lets see the leadership. I'm ready to jump on board.

Put it on the algorenet so we all can read it

 

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: The 2nd Term - Round 1 - Diving for Dollars

So when is bho going to present a plan to balance a budget? Present that, sell the public and get the votes in congress. It's not some db rep from ohio's job to do so.

Lets see it. Lets see the leadership. I'm ready to jump on board.

Put it on the algorenet so we all can read it

Why should he have to? He can't be re-elected. He'll likely retire after having the highest job in the country. He has carte blanche to screw up the country all he wants, so long as he gives the State of the Union address and doesn't commit any high crimes or misdemeanors.

 

[Rover]

So when is bho going to present a plan to balance a budget? Present that, sell the public and get the votes in congress. It's not some db rep from ohio's job to do so.

Lets see it. Lets see the leadership. I'm ready to jump on board.

Put it on the algorenet so we all can read it

Mookie, you're seeing it, just in parts. Part I is this round of revenue. Part II will be coming at the end of February. That's unavoidable. Where I too am intersted in seeing the proposal is Part III, once tax rates and budget stuff is resolved since it has to be by the end of next month. What kind of gab will be left and how much needs to be done that doesn't revolve around economic growth.

 

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: The 2nd Term - Round 1 - Diving for Dollars

I'll just be amazed if they can actually pull a surplus in April. Last year was the first time the Obama administration was able to do that. And usually April is a surplus month; I don't think I need to tell you why that is.

 

[joecct]

Re: The 2nd Term - Round 1 - Diving for Dollars

Mookie, you're seeing it, just in parts. Part I is this round of revenue. Part II will be coming at the end of February. That's unavoidable. Where I too am intersted in seeing the proposal is Part III, once tax rates and budget stuff is resolved since it has to be by the end of next month. What kind of gab will be left and how much needs to be done that doesn't revolve around economic growth.

You really think there's going to be a Part II? Who's ox is going to be gored? You cut a Federal Program, you put Federal Employees (and union members) out of work. Having worked in the Federal Service for 30+ years, you can't imagine how vital every federal program is to the American people. If we cut a program in Agriculture, milk will go up to $8 / gallon. If we cut defense, China will invade Outer Mongolia and that is in our vital national interest.

Color me cynical, but I just don't see any meaningful cuts happening.

 

[joecct]

Re: The 2nd Term - Round 1 - Diving for Dollars

I'll just be amazed if they can actually pull a surplus in April. Last year was the first time the Obama administration was able to do that. And usually April is a surplus month; I don't think I need to tell you why that is.

Final Four betting pools?

 

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: The 2nd Term - Round 1 - Diving for Dollars

You really think there's going to be a Part II? Who's ox is going to be gored? You cut a Federal Program, you put Federal Employees (and union members) out of work. Having worked in the Federal Service for 30+ years, you can't imagine how vital every federal program is to the American people. If we cut a program in Agriculture, milk will go up to $8 / gallon. If we cut defense, China will invade Outer Mongolia and that is in our vital national interest.

Color me cynical, but I just don't see any meaningful cuts happening.

There will be a Part II. They'll just kick the can down the road, though. Rover is referring to the debt ceiling.

 

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: The 2nd Term - Round 1 - Diving for Dollars

Final Four betting pools?

Baseball.

 

[Rover]

You really think there's going to be a Part II? Who's ox is going to be gored? You cut a Federal Program, you put Federal Employees (and union members) out of work. Having worked in the Federal Service for 30+ years, you can't imagine how vital every federal program is to the American people. If we cut a program in Agriculture, milk will go up to $8 / gallon. If we cut defense, China will invade Outer Mongolia and that is in our vital national interest.

Color me cynical, but I just don't see any meaningful cuts happening.

I agree for the most part. If there's one massively faulty premise that conservative Republicans have operated under, its that the American public is more than willing to accept deep cuts in federal spending that affects them. They're not. That argument was lost years ago. That's why the only specific cuts that enjoy support tend to be for foreign aide and maybe welfare payments, which are a speck of the total goverment expenditures. Beyond that, defense spending is now an easier one to do, but after sequestration there's not going to be a lot left to trim off of that either.

So, I detailed roughly $2.5T in tax hikes ($2T are already in place) and $2.5T in spending cuts ($2T also already in place, at least $1T from the defense budget and most likely $1.5T before its all said and done depending on sequestration). Of the $1T in non-defense cuts, I can see 500Bn in domestic programs and 500Bn in entitlements getting done (chained CPI, fraud crackdown, even tort reform). After that though, I'd be really surprised if voters were willing to accept any more than that.

 

[walrus]

Re: The 2nd Term - Round 1 - Diving for Dollars

What % of the tax paying population are going to get hit by higher taxes out of this new proposal anyway.?

 

[mookie1995]

What % of the tax paying population are going to get hit by higher taxes out of this new proposal anyway.?

Everyone

 

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: The 2nd Term - Round 1 - Diving for Dollars

I agree for the most part. If there's one massively faulty premise that conservative Republicans have operated under, its that the American public is more than willing to accept deep cuts in federal spending that affects them. They're not. That argument was lost years ago. That's why the only specific cuts that enjoy support tend to be for foreign aide and maybe welfare payments, which are a speck of the total goverment expenditures. Beyond that, defense spending is now an easier one to do, but after sequestration there's not going to be a lot left to trim off of that either.

So, I detailed roughly $2.5T in tax hikes ($2T are already in place) and $2.5T in spending cuts ($2T also already in place, at least $1T from the defense budget and most likely $1.5T before its all said and done depending on sequestration). Of the $1T in non-defense cuts, I can see 500Bn in domestic programs and 500Bn in entitlements getting done (chained CPI, fraud crackdown, even tort reform). After that though, I'd be really surprised if voters were willing to accept any more than that.

Perhaps we should take example from state governments, then? Scott Walker made the tough decisions and survived recall. Chris Christie is doing fairly well for himself despite being hard-nosed. There's no leadership in D.C. at all. Everyone's too worried about keeping their job that they forget to do their job. In the absence of leadership, you get some communist comedian that lets his constituents eat cake as the President.

You might be surprised what the American public is willing to accept. Granted, you have to go after the liberal media lies and spins, but why not throw caution to the wind, be a leader, and stand up for some beliefs?

 

[mookie1995]

Re: The 2nd Term - Round 1 - Diving for Dollars

Mookie's taxes just went up 2%

 

[walrus]

Re: The 2nd Term - Round 1 - Diving for Dollars

Everyone

That's a far cry from only the richest 2%,isn't it? What happened to no tax increase for the middle class?

 

[geezer]

Re: The 2nd Term - Round 1 - Diving for Dollars

what a shocker. It turns out that the Boehner/Obama "Grand Bargain" that "Saved the World" is actually measured as a complete and utter failure by every economist of the last 200 years. They'll have to invent a new theory of economics in order to call it a successful world-saving. But there is good news.

The best economic case for the agreement, from each of those standpoints, appears to be that things could have been worse.

What a bunch of stupid failures.

 

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: The 2nd Term - Round 1 - Diving for Dollars

what a shocker. It turns out that the Boehner/Obama "Grand Bargain" that "Saved the World" is actually measured as a complete and utter failure by every economist of the last 200 years. They'll have to invent a new theory of economics in order to call it a successful world-saving. But there is good news. What a bunch of stupid failures.

Think it's too late to go to Alaska and set them adrift?