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The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

  • Thread starter Thread starter Priceless
  • Start date Start date
Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

Priceless said:
Providence and Vermont are still not locks.
Cornell and Northeastern are eliminated.
Colgate is the 10th team into the tournament. A win tomorrow and they likely get a 2 seed in Worcester. Go figure.
Ohio State, New Hampshire and the LTHC (and AHA) need the autobid.
Teams still alive for bubble and playing: Mankato and North Dakota.
Teams still alive for bubble and done: Vermont, Providence, Michigan
The cut line is now 14.

All favorites win tomorrow: Vermont/Mankato/Michigan in, NoDak out
An Ohio State or New Hampshire win = Michigan out as well
Ohio State AND New Hampshire win = Mankato out as well.
Ohio State AND New Hampshire AND Mankato win = Vermont out.
Click to expand...

If all favorites (Niagara/RMU winner, Wisconsin, Union, Lowell, North Dakota, Denver, and Ferris) win tomorrow, North Dakota is in. Michigan is out.
 
Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

Strange this computer based math. On CHN Sioux don't get in with a win and favorites all wining, on uscho they do.
 
Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

MagnessMan said:
Strange this computer based math. On CHN Sioux don't get in with a win and favorites all winner, on uscho they do.
Click to expand...

I saw where CHN's pairwise was getting jacked up. They had North Dakota dropping in RPI with a win over Western. That's why Michigan was hurdling them in an all-favorite scenario.
 
Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

Fighting Sioux 23 said:
If all favorites (Niagara/RMU winner, Wisconsin, Union, Lowell, North Dakota, Denver, and Ferris) win tomorrow, North Dakota is in. Michigan is out.
Click to expand...

I swear it said otherwise a few minutes ago. I think I need sleep.
 
Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

Kdaddy1968 said:
Just curious how is UVM out with Ohio State, New Hampshire and Mankato winning ? They end up 12th in that scenario don't they?
Click to expand...

I figured it out. it is a Ohio State, UNH, Mankato AND Union all winning. That has UVM out...
 
Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

Fighting Sioux 23 said:
If all favorites (Niagara/RMU winner, Wisconsin, Union, Lowell, North Dakota, Denver, and Ferris) win tomorrow, North Dakota is in. Michigan is out.
Click to expand...

I tried different scenarios for UND, but it didn't seem to matter what happened in the Niagara/RMU, Union/Colgate, Denver/Miami, and Minnesota/Ferris State games. North Dakota needs to beat Western Michigan and needs Wisconsin and UMass-Lowell to win. The Colgate win really hurt UND. If Colgate had lost, they would have only needed two of the three scenarios.
 
TheEagle said:
I tried different scenarios for UND, but it didn't seem to matter what happened in the Niagara/RMU, Union/Colgate, Denver/Miami, and Minnesota/Ferris State games. North Dakota needs to beat Western Michigan and needs Wisconsin and UMass-Lowell to win. The Colgate win really hurt UND. If Colgate had lost, they would have only needed two of the three scenarios.
Click to expand...

That's the most likely, but see my other scenario that I posted below. Canisius, Ohio St, Colgate, Lowell, UND, Miami, and Ferris put UND in and keep Mankato out.
 
Last edited:
Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

If Jim Dahl hasn't gone to bed yet, could he please run all 192 scenarios left, and see what is possible?

Thanks.
 
Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

Quickly,

Vermont and Providence: Both appear safe unless all of these happen: Mankato wins (Mankato finishes behind both with a loss), UNH wins (auto-bid takes a spot), OSU wins (auto-bid takes a spot). Collectively, these results push the cut line to 12th (4 auto bids - NCHC, HEA, AHA, B10) and put Mankato ahead of Vermont in RPI (auto-bid anyway). Then, at this point it all depends on the result of the Colgate/Union game. Union wins - Providence is in. Colgate wins - Vermont is in. The reason is the Colgate/Providence compare, which revolves around that game.
 
Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

I ran thru nearly all the scenarios and came up with the following:

Minnesota (1)
Locked up #1 overall Seed

Boston College (2-3)
Would fall to #3 if Ohio St wins, AND Union wins, AND New Hampshire wins, AND one of these three teams win: UND, Denver, OR Mankato
Otherwise they are the #2 seed

Union (2-3)
Would be #2 seed if Ohio St wins, AND Union wins, AND New Hampshire wins, AND one of these three teams win: UND, Denver, OR Mankato
Otherwise they are the #3 seed

Ferris State (4-6)
Would be #4 seed with win OR Wisconsin loss
Would be #5 seed with loss AND Wisconsin win
Would be #6 seed with loss AND Wisconsin loss AND Western Michigan win

Wisconsin (4-6)
Would be #4 seed with win AND Ferris St loss
Would be #5 seed with win AND Ferris St win OR loss AND Massachusetts-Lowell loss
Would be #6 seed with loss AND Massachusetts-Lowell win

Massachusetts-Lowell (5 or 7)
Would be #5 seed with win AND (Wisconsin loss OR (Mankato win AND Western Michigan win))
Otherwise they are #7 seed

Quinnipiac (6-7)
Would fall to #7 with Wisconsin loss AND Massachusetts-Lowell win
Otherwise they are #6 seed

Notre Dame (8)
Locked up #8 seed

St Cloud (9)
Locked up #9 seed

*** SEEDS 10-13 have a lot of shuffling
*** 4 teams fighting for 2-4 spots (Mankato, Colgate, Providence, Vermont)

If Colgate and New Hampshire win, then order will be Colgate, Vermont, Providence
If Union and New Hampshire win, then order will be Colgate, Providence, Vermont
If Colgate and Massachusetts-Lowell win, then order will be Colgate, Providence, Vermont
If Union and Massachusetts-Lowell win, then order will be Providence, Colgate, Vermont
If Mankato wins, they are at the front of the order, a loss puts them at the back of the order

Colgate (10-13)
Locked up a top 16 seed

Mankato (10 or 13 or out)
Seed #10 with a win
Seed #13 with loss and Ohio State loss OR New Hampshire loss
Out of the top 16 with loss AND Ohio State win AND New Hampshire win

Providence (10-13,out)
Out if Colgate, Ohio State, New Hampshire, and Mankato all win

Vermont (11-13, out)
Out if Union, Ohio State, New Hampshire, and Mankato all win

Ohio State (13-14, out)
#13 with win and New Hampshire win
#14 with win and New Hampshire loss
Out with loss

Michigan (14, out)
#14 seed with Wisconsin AND North Dakota loss AND Massachusetts-Lowell win

North Dakota (14, out)
#14 seed with win AND Wisconsin win AND Massachusetts-Lowell win

New Hampshire (14, out)
#14 seed with win
Out with loss

Denver/Miami (15)
Winner gets #15 seed

Robert Morris/Canisius (16)
Winner gets #16 seed
 
Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

In a scenario where Robert Morris, Wisconsin, Colgate, Lowell, North Dakota, Miami, and Ferris win, the order of seeds would be:

1. Minnesota
2. Boston College
3. Union
4. Ferris State
5. Wisconsin
6. Quinnipiac
7. Massachusetts-Lowell
8. Notre Dame
9. St. Cloud State
10. Colgate
11. Providence
12. Vermont
13. Minnesota-State
14. North Dakota
15. Miami
16. Robert Morris

Now then you would place #1 Minnesota in St. Paul's, #2 Boston College in Worcester, #3 Union in Bridgeport, and #4 Ferris State. In Cincy. After that, #5 Wisconsin in Cincy, #6 Quinnipiac in Bridgeport, #7 UMass-Lowell in Worcester and #8 Notre Dame in St. Paul's. Following that, #9 St. Cloud would go to St. Paul's, #10 Colgate to Worcester, #11 Providence to Bridgeport, and #12 Vermont to Cincy. #13 Minnesota-State would go to Cincy, #14 North Dakota to Bridgeport, #15 Miami to Worcester, and #16 Robert Morris to St. Paul's and the regionals would look like this:

West: Minnesota vs. RMU; Notre Dame vs. St. Cloud State
Midwest: Ferris State vs. Minnesota State; Wisconsin vs. Vermont
East: Union vs. North Dakota; Quinnipiac vs. Providence
Northeast: BC vs. Miami; UMass-Lowell vs. Colgate

The obvious swap is Minnesota State for NoDak due to intraconference matchups. Everything else looks solid except for one thing. Would they swap Wisconsin and Vermont with ND and SCSU to boost attendance, or would they rely on Badger and NoDak fans to help fill Cincy. The East and Northeast look pretty immovable to me.
 
hockeyenthusiast said:
In a scenario where Robert Morris, Wisconsin, Colgate, Lowell, North Dakota, Miami, and Ferris win, the order of seeds would be:

1. Minnesota
2. Boston College
3. Union
4. Ferris State
5. Wisconsin
6. Quinnipiac
7. Massachusetts-Lowell
8. Notre Dame
9. St. Cloud State
10. Colgate
11. Providence
12. Vermont
13. Minnesota-State
14. North Dakota
15. Miami
16. Robert Morris

Now then you would place #1 Minnesota in St. Paul's, #2 Boston College in Worcester, #3 Union in Bridgeport, and #4 Ferris State. In Cincy. After that, #5 Wisconsin in Cincy, #6 Quinnipiac in Bridgeport, #7 UMass-Lowell in Worcester and #8 Notre Dame in St. Paul's. Following that, #9 St. Cloud would go to St. Paul's, #10 Colgate to Worcester, #11 Providence to Bridgeport, and #12 Vermont to Cincy. #13 Minnesota-State would go to Cincy, #14 North Dakota to Bridgeport, #15 Miami to Worcester, and #16 Robert Morris to St. Paul's and the regionals would look like this:

West: Minnesota vs. RMU; Notre Dame vs. St. Cloud State
Midwest: Ferris State vs. Minnesota State; Wisconsin vs. Vermont
East: Union vs. North Dakota; Quinnipiac vs. Providence
Northeast: BC vs. Miami; UMass-Lowell vs. Colgate

The obvious swap is Minnesota State for NoDak due to intraconference matchups. Everything else looks solid except for one thing. Would they swap Wisconsin and Vermont with ND and SCSU to boost attendance, or would they rely on Badger and NoDak fans to help fill Cincy. The East and Northeast look pretty immovable to me.
Click to expand...

Except Miami is hosting so they would be in Cincinnati no matter what.

Minnesota v Robert Morris // Notre Dame v St Cloud
BC v NoDak // Lowell v Colgate
Union v Mankato // Quinnipiac v Providence
Ferris v Miami // Wisconsin v Vermont
 
Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

OK, now I know something with the Predictor changed because last night Colgate was as high as 7 with a win while Quinnipiac was at 9. Sigh. I need more sleep.
 
Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

Priceless said:
Except Miami is hosting so they would be in Cincinnati no matter what.

Minnesota v Robert Morris // Notre Dame v St Cloud
BC v NoDak // Lowell v Colgate
Union v Mankato // Quinnipiac v Providence
Ferris v Miami // Wisconsin v Vermont
Click to expand...

Right. Well let's say Denver wins instead. It'd be identical to what I proposed except substituting Denver for Miami. Think they'd keep Wisconsin in Cincy?
 
Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

So the St Paul region is set. #1 Minnesota v AHA winner // Notre Dame v St Cloud
Cincinnati will be Ferris and Wisconsin, order TBD today.
 
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