Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`
They should send Providence west first
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Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`
As for the final bracketology, it seems to me that the committee may proceed thus:
Minnesota will make St Paul a success (never mind how empty it was today).
BC in Worcester will ensure crowds.
Union going to Bridgeport helps there a lot.
So, all we have to worry about for attendance is Cincinnati, and that is a big worry.
Therefore, I would think it likely that the committee follows serpentine, unless there is a 2 or 3 seed swap that would greatly help Cincinnati. Also, it is possible that they would swap 13 overall for 14 to make the 1/4 game in Cincinnati a better draw if Lowell, or Wisconsin gets the #4 overall.
The questions would seem to be:
If Notre Dame is #8overall, it is a big swap to trade 5 for 8 to get NoDame in Cincinnati. I think they would worry less if Notre Dame were 9th. If ND is 9th, it seems a logical swap to put them there, if possible.
How much draw can you expect from Michigan or Western Michigan or Ferris?
Can Miami continue their run and get a place in the tourney, where they would automatically play at Cincinnati?
If Quinn ends up 5th, and Providence 7th, I think the committee would send Quinnipiac to Cincinnati because sending the 7 creates the possibility of regional finals with 2v5 and 4v7, and those are imbalanced, when there is no attendance advantage.
As for the final bracketology, it seems to me that the committee may proceed thus:
Minnesota will make St Paul a success (never mind how empty it was today).
BC in Worcester will ensure crowds.
Union going to Bridgeport helps there a lot.
So, all we have to worry about for attendance is Cincinnati, and that is a big worry.
Therefore, I would think it likely that the committee follows serpentine, unless there is a 2 or 3 seed swap that would greatly help Cincinnati. Also, it is possible that they would swap 13 overall for 14 to make the 1/4 game in Cincinnati a better draw if Lowell, or Wisconsin gets the #4 overall.
The questions would seem to be:
If Notre Dame is #8overall, it is a big swap to trade 5 for 8 to get NoDame in Cincinnati. I think they would worry less if Notre Dame were 9th. If ND is 9th, it seems a logical swap to put them there, if possible.
How much draw can you expect from Michigan or Western Michigan or Ferris?
Can Miami continue their run and get a place in the tourney, where they would automatically play at Cincinnati?
If Quinn ends up 5th, and Providence 7th, I think the committee would send Quinnipiac to Cincinnati because sending the 7 creates the possibility of regional finals with 2v5 and 4v7, and those are imbalanced, when there is no attendance advantage.
The Zlax45
Registered User
Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`
PC fans would travel to Bridgeport so let's do it up!
PC fans would travel to Bridgeport so let's do it up!
Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`
This makes a lot of sense. It would be great for Providence to be in Bridgeport, especially given the history of the coaching staffs.
This makes a lot of sense. It would be great for Providence to be in Bridgeport, especially given the history of the coaching staffs.
CollegeHockeyRinkReport
New member
Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`
Updated Bracketology following the conclusion of games on March 20.
http://www.sbncollegehockey.com/201...wise-rankings-minnesota-boston-college-union-
Updated Bracketology following the conclusion of games on March 20.
http://www.sbncollegehockey.com/201...wise-rankings-minnesota-boston-college-union-
P
Priceless
Guest
Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`
Fun observation: No team controls its own destiny for the final #1 seed. Ferris State would seem to, and if all higher seeds win they do, but if Bowling Green upsets Mankato (and Wisconsin upsets Minnesota) the Badgers get the spot. However if Ohio State upsets Minnesota first then the advantage switches back to Ferris. If both the Badgers and Bulldogs stumble, Quinnipiac is up next. If all three fall then Lowell has a chance by winning Hockey East.
Fun observation: No team controls its own destiny for the final #1 seed. Ferris State would seem to, and if all higher seeds win they do, but if Bowling Green upsets Mankato (and Wisconsin upsets Minnesota) the Badgers get the spot. However if Ohio State upsets Minnesota first then the advantage switches back to Ferris. If both the Badgers and Bulldogs stumble, Quinnipiac is up next. If all three fall then Lowell has a chance by winning Hockey East.
WeAreNDHockey
\../ \../
Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`
I don't know how much the committee will worry about helping Cincinnati. Notre Dame and Miami did not exactly pack Toledo last season and both are just a couple of hours away. My guess is they may just cross their fingers and hope it works out that the seeds put Notre Dame there and that Miami (host school) pulls out a couple more upsets. If they do rearrgange the seeds to create atmoshphere and attendance one more time and it doesn't work I think that will signal the end of neutral site regionals for this tournament. My guess is short of having Miami, UM and Notre Dame all in Cincinnati, it will have trouble drawing flies, even with the cheapest regional tickets in years. Look for another friends and family crowd.
I don't know how much the committee will worry about helping Cincinnati. Notre Dame and Miami did not exactly pack Toledo last season and both are just a couple of hours away. My guess is they may just cross their fingers and hope it works out that the seeds put Notre Dame there and that Miami (host school) pulls out a couple more upsets. If they do rearrgange the seeds to create atmoshphere and attendance one more time and it doesn't work I think that will signal the end of neutral site regionals for this tournament. My guess is short of having Miami, UM and Notre Dame all in Cincinnati, it will have trouble drawing flies, even with the cheapest regional tickets in years. Look for another friends and family crowd.
Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`
Not much to say other than, I was wrong. Looks like SCSU is now a lock. While neither of yesterday's games were the pieces that really moved SCSU's PWR or the cutline, they were nonetheless apparently necessary.
Not much to say other than, I was wrong. Looks like SCSU is now a lock. While neither of yesterday's games were the pieces that really moved SCSU's PWR or the cutline, they were nonetheless apparently necessary.
MGoBlueHockey
Wolverine Devotee
Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`
This is the part where the teams in front of Michigan all lose, thus, opening the final spot up. And Michigan goes Yale-style and gloriously wins the whole thing as a 4 seed and 15 overall.
Then they hoist Red on their shoulders and carry him off the ice to send him riding off into the sunset into retirement the right way.
Ugh.
This is the part where the teams in front of Michigan all lose, thus, opening the final spot up. And Michigan goes Yale-style and gloriously wins the whole thing as a 4 seed and 15 overall.
Then they hoist Red on their shoulders and carry him off the ice to send him riding off into the sunset into retirement the right way.
Ugh.
The Exiled One
New member
Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`
Now I just need them to land in the #8 or #9 spot for a shot at St. Paul!
The one scenario I saw drawn up had SCSU tied for 11th PWR with Michigan but losing the RPI tiebreaker. Obviously, that can't happen now. So even though the PWR scenarios and cutline scenarios weren't affected, WHOM was affected seemed to make difference.
Now I just need them to land in the #8 or #9 spot for a shot at St. Paul!
Union in Bridgeport does not make Bridgeport filled at all. They need more than Union to bring a crowd to Bridgeport
Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`
I understand, but don't know, that Ferris has a good fan base, rowdy too. I don't know what that translates into #'s wise though. The NC$$ committee must be praying to the Gods that somehow Michigan gets in and that they can put them in Cincy. But that's a stretch.
I understand, but don't know, that Ferris has a good fan base, rowdy too. I don't know what that translates into #'s wise though. The NC$$ committee must be praying to the Gods that somehow Michigan gets in and that they can put them in Cincy. But that's a stretch.
Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`
This is why I love the PWR Predictor. Until I read this post, I had no real interest in the BG/Mankato game. And do I root for the Goofs against Ohio State? That's almost impossible for me to do as a Badger :-D
This is why I love the PWR Predictor. Until I read this post, I had no real interest in the BG/Mankato game. And do I root for the Goofs against Ohio State? That's almost impossible for me to do as a Badger :-D
TonyTheTiger20
#SOAR
Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`
And I'm not positive the committee would go out of its way to move them out of the 15 and into Cincinatti. Not that I wouldn't like that...
Most of the scenario's I've run show Michigan getting in as the 15... am I missing something?
And I'm not positive the committee would go out of its way to move them out of the 15 and into Cincinatti. Not that I wouldn't like that...
Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`
ECAC semifinals are going to be big for Michigan. If Quinnipiac and Union both win, then Michigan is still alive. If only one of them win, Michigan may still have a shot, depending on how many other surprises get sprung in the other conferences. If Cornell and Colgate both win tonight, Michigan might well be cooked.
ECAC semifinals are going to be big for Michigan. If Quinnipiac and Union both win, then Michigan is still alive. If only one of them win, Michigan may still have a shot, depending on how many other surprises get sprung in the other conferences. If Cornell and Colgate both win tonight, Michigan might well be cooked.
klbaum1077
Registered User
They can get in with both of those schools winning today providing none of the other conference champs are teams who would not already be in the tournament without winning their conference tournament.
Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`
Michigan also needs to root for UML and Ferris State. There are some groups of scenarios where the performance of UML or Ferris is the difference between Michigan being in or out of the tournament.
Michigan also needs to root for UML and Ferris State. There are some groups of scenarios where the performance of UML or Ferris is the difference between Michigan being in or out of the tournament.
Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`
It seems clear enough this way: Mankato will now finish ahead of Michigan. The last few spots come down to RPI of various teams, and conference champions.
If everything goes chalk, Michigan is in as #14. So, it looks like they have one spot to spare.
Things that could take them down:
Colgate wins a game
Cornell wins a game
NoDak wins a game but does not win the NCHC (this take Michigan down because of an auto-bid to NCHC)
New Hampshire wins HEA championship
Anchorage wins 2 games and wins WCHA (this is my favorite - Seawolves in the big tourney would be great)
However, Anchorage winning somehow enables Northeastern to slide by Michigan, so Anchorage winning WCHA, when everything else is chalk takes Michigan out.
It seems clear enough this way: Mankato will now finish ahead of Michigan. The last few spots come down to RPI of various teams, and conference champions.
If everything goes chalk, Michigan is in as #14. So, it looks like they have one spot to spare.
Things that could take them down:
Colgate wins a game
Cornell wins a game
NoDak wins a game but does not win the NCHC (this take Michigan down because of an auto-bid to NCHC)
New Hampshire wins HEA championship
Anchorage wins 2 games and wins WCHA (this is my favorite - Seawolves in the big tourney would be great)
However, Anchorage winning somehow enables Northeastern to slide by Michigan, so Anchorage winning WCHA, when everything else is chalk takes Michigan out.
MGoBlueHockey
Wolverine Devotee
Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`
Can someone give me a complete description of what would need to happen for Michigan to sneak into the tournament? Everything.
Can someone give me a complete description of what would need to happen for Michigan to sneak into the tournament? Everything.
Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`
In this case, "somehow" is that the two teams are close together in RPI, Michigan played Ferris State this season, and NU did not. Hence, a loss by Ferris State hurts Michigan's opct part of RPI (and if there are any hard cutoffs, it may hurt there as well), and Michigan slides behind NU in RPI.
The same thing can happen with UML losing to Notre Dame, though not with UML beating ND and losing in the final.
In this case, "somehow" is that the two teams are close together in RPI, Michigan played Ferris State this season, and NU did not. Hence, a loss by Ferris State hurts Michigan's opct part of RPI (and if there are any hard cutoffs, it may hurt there as well), and Michigan slides behind NU in RPI.
The same thing can happen with UML losing to Notre Dame, though not with UML beating ND and losing in the final.