The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

[Patman]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

No they're not. They wind up tied 11th PWR in that scenario.

which side of the tie?

 

[Steve_MN]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

which side of the tie?

Interesting. Yes, this puts St Cloud tied for 11th with Michigan, but losing the RPI by .0002, with 11 being the cutoff

 

[The Exiled One]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

St Cloud is out in the following scenario:


Mercyhurst defeats Robert Morris
Ohio State defeats Michigan
Cornell defeats Quinnipiac
New Hampshire defeats Notre Dame
Denver defeats North Dakota (3rd place game)
Western Michigan defeats Miami
Minnesota State defeats Alaska-Anchorage

Well I'll be. I'm not even mad, that's amazing! Good work finding this.

For obvious reasons, I'm not really sweating this scenario, but I appreciate the effort that went into it!

 

[FiveHole12]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

which side of the tie?

Ahhh... now I see. All the auto bids knock them out with the cutoff at 11.
I'm going back to reading this thread, not thinking it.

 

[JimDahl]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

Anyone else getting different results from USCHO and CHN, or does everyone here just use USCHO?

In trying to validate my results against their calculators, I get different results from their calculators. Seems to be home vs neutral issue.

 

[Priceless]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

Ahhh... now I see. All the auto bids knock them out with the cutoff at 11.
I'm going back to reading this thread, not thinking it.

Don't think. It can only hurt the ball club.

 

[unh1982]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

Anyone else getting different results from USCHO and CHN, or does everyone here just use USCHO?

In trying to validate my results against their calculators, I get different results from their calculators. Seems to be home vs neutral issue.

priceless question , UNH at 42 in the power , with a win on neutral site against PC , they still remain at 42 , How come .

 

[JimDahl]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

Anyone else getting different results from USCHO and CHN, or does everyone here just use USCHO?

In trying to validate my results against their calculators, I get different results from their calculators. Seems to be home vs neutral issue.

I reached out and the discrepancy has been resolved, everyone seems to agree now. Here's my first pass at the interesting cut lines:

Conference tournament outlook

It's a pretty minor (noting the Providence and SCSU possibilities) refinement on Priceless's list from this morning. I'll post more detail on the blog later tonight or tomorrow.

The following teams will make the NCAA tournament regardless of what happens this weekend:

#1 Minnesota
#2 Boston College (not playing)
#3 Union
#4 Ferris State
#5 Wisconsin
#6 Quinnipiac
#7 Mass.-Lowell
#8 Notre Dame

The following teams are extremely likely to make the NCAA tournament, but there are some outlier scenarios that could knock them out:

#9 Providence (in for sure with a win, selected in 97% of 0 win scenarios)
#10 St. Cloud St (not playing, selected in over 99% of scenarios)

The following teams have some chance of making it regardless of outcome:

#11 Michigan (selected in 21% of scenarios with no wins, selected in 96% of scenarios with 1 win)
#12 Minnesota State (selected in 6% of scenarios with no wins, selected in 54% of scenarios with 1 win)
#14 Vermont (not playing, selected in 69% of scenarios)
#15 Colgate (selected in 2% of scenarios with no wins, selected in 77% of scenarios with 1 win)
#16 Cornell (selected in <1% of scenarios with no wins, selected in 85% of scenarios with 1 win)
#18 Northeastern (not playing, selected in 8% of scenarios)

The following teams need a win to make it:

#13 North Dakota (out with two losses, selected in 41% of scenarios with 1 win). UND is an outlier from the group above because the NCHC has a consolation game, so no wins actually means two losses instead of one.

The following teams need to win the conference tournament to get a bid:

#17 New Hampshire
#19 Western Michigan
#21 Ohio State
#24 Bowling Green
#25 Alaska Anchorage
#26 Denver
#31 Mercyhurst
#32 Miami
#37 Michigan State
#47 Robert Morris
#48 Canisius
#49 Niagara
#52 Penn State

 

[Slap Shot]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

I'm still doing a little quality control on my tournament probabilities, but thought I'd share my first pass at PWR possibilities and crowd source some quality control.

Anyone find any PWR outcomes outside these ranges (for teams that can make the tournament at large):
#1 Minnesota 1
#2 BC 2-3
#3 Union 2-3
#4 Ferris State 4-8
#5 Wisconsin 4-9
#6 QU 4-10
#7 Mass.-Lowell 4-10
#8 Notre Dame 4-10
#9 Providence 4-15
#10 St Cloud 8-13
#11 Michigan 6-18
#12 Mankato 9-20
#13 North Dakota 10-20
#14 Vermont 10-16
#15 Colgate 9-19
#16 Cornell 9-19
#17 New Hampshire 12-22 (needs conference tournament)
#18 Northeastern 12-19

Those are some crazy ranges (not your math, just the gaps themselves) from 5 through 18. I realize you can only simulate so much, but I'm not sure we've had as many as 9 teams this late that could still be in or out aside from upsets winning their tournament.

 

[Patman]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

I think next season I build the simulator with gaping holes for in-season tournaments and tie-breakers and then ask for support to fill in the logic holes. That way something actually gets done even if its not perfect.

 

[Priceless]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

Going back to last year at this time
In: (7)
Quinnipiac
Minnesota
Miami
Boston College
Lowell
North Dakota
New Hampshire

At large possibilities: (14)
Mankato - 99.7%
Denver - 98%
Yale - 96.9%
Niagara - 95.9%
St Cloud - 94.1%
Notre Dame: 81.8%
Western Michigan* - 56.5%
Union - 41.5%
Wisconsin* - 13.3%

Canisius won the AHA autobid. Western Michigan had the highest % chance of making the field that didn't qualify; Wisconsin had the lowest % chance of any team that did qualify.

Last year's parlay almost came true. Brown, Michigan, Boston University and Colorado College all went to their conference finals and Niagara didn't win the autobid.
This year's parlay: Colgate/Cornell win the ECAC, UAA or Bowling Green win the WCHA, New Hampshire takes Hockey East, any of the lower three teams in the B1G and anyone but North Dakota wins the LTHC.

 

[red133883]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

priceless, if Colgate or Cornell wins the ECAC championship they will be in the top 16 so I dont get the logic there. There cannot be an "outside the top 16" winner of the ECAC

 

[Priceless]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

priceless, if Colgate or Cornell wins the ECAC championship they will be in the top 16 so I dont get the logic there. There cannot be an "outside the top 16" winner of the ECAC

True. Actually, there are many scenarios where both teams make the tournament. To make it a true parlay I felt I had to include them.

 

[Numbers]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

priceless, if Colgate or Cornell wins the ECAC championship they will be in the top 16 so I dont get the logic there. There cannot be an "outside the top 16" winner of the ECAC

Or, consider it this way. If either wins the ECAC, it takes an at-large bid away from some other team in another conference.

And, in reality, the same applies to New Hampshire. I just ran a scenario with higher-ranked PWR team winning every game except UNH winning HEA, and New Hampshire qualifies at 15th - Autobid, of course, but also would make the field as at-large in that scenario.

Either way, they take a bid from a higher ranked team (ranked higher as of right now).

 

[Numbers]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

Also, for those interested in the BC/Union situation. Union gets #2 overall if something like this occurs (note that they pass BC on the basis of RPI, so we are trying to reduce BC's RPI as much as possible).

1)Notre Dame loses to Lowell (NoDame has played more games with BC than anyone, so NoDame has to lose).
2)Wisconsin and Minnesota have to lose in the Big10 semis (BC has played both, so this reduces BC's RPI).
3)Bowling Green needs at least one win (Union has played Bowling Green).

I am not going to delve too closely to see what else might need to happen, but one scenario would be:
B10 - OSU over Michigan in the final (note that this description determines all games and Michigan winning the final does NOT work)
AHA - Mercyhurst over RoMo (RoMo champion does NOT work)
ECAC - Union over Quinnpiac
HEA - New Hampshire over Lowell (Lowell winning does NOT work)
WCHA - Ferris over Bowling Green (BG winning championship does NOT work)
NCHC - NoDak over WMU in the Champ, Denver over Miami in consolation

 

[Numbers]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

And, for Western fans, I can get 3 teams in from all three western conferences (not counting AHA):
AHA - Many options. Mercyhurst and Niagara winning semis is easiest
ECAC - Quinnipiac over Union
HEA - Providence over Lowell
B10- Michigan needs at least one win, and Mich/Wisc/Minn have to win the tourney
WCHA - Anchorage over Mankato
NCHC - WMU wins championship, UND gets one win{This is if Mich gets 1 win}. If Mich gets 2 wins, it has to be WMU over UND in the championship.

These results leave Mich, UND and Mankato in by a very slight margin over Vermont. All 4 teams within .0010 in the RPI, and Vermont on the bottom. This is of course a tiny sliver.

 

[Steve_MN]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

Also, for those interested in the BC/Union situation. Union gets #2 overall if something like this occurs (note that they pass BC on the basis of RPI, so we are trying to reduce BC's RPI as much as possible).

1)Notre Dame loses to Lowell (NoDame has played more games with BC than anyone, so NoDame has to lose).
2)Wisconsin and Minnesota have to lose in the Big10 semis (BC has played both, so this reduces BC's RPI).
3)Bowling Green needs at least one win (Union has played Bowling Green).

I am not going to delve too closely to see what else might need to happen, but one scenario would be:
B10 - OSU over Michigan in the final (note that this description determines all games and Michigan winning the final does NOT work)
AHA - Mercyhurst over RoMo (RoMo champion does NOT work)
ECAC - Union over Quinnpiac
HEA - New Hampshire over Lowell (Lowell winning does NOT work)
WCHA - Ferris over Bowling Green (BG winning championship does NOT work)
NCHC - NoDak over WMU in the Champ, Denver over Miami in consolation

Wow. Union and BC end up tied at 2nd with this, including a tie in RPI. Union takes the H2H comparison due to a better Common Opponent record.

EDIT: Wait. It shows BC winning the Common Opponent piece, but RPI as a tie, with Union winning anyway.... I guess that the RPI at the 5th digit isn't a tie, and it's just rounding error that makes it look like it is.

 

[Numbers]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

One other oddity that came up. CHN has a bit of a discussion about a Doomsday scenario for the committee, which would go like this:
Miami wins NCHC and therefore comes in at 15th or 16th in the PWR.
AHA Champ is obviously the other of 15 or 16.
What if Northeastern and Vermont (or some other HEA team) comes in at 13 AND 14?

Then, the bracket has issues. Miami is host, so they have to play at Cincinnati. Minny is host, so they have to play in St Paul. You would like to put AHA in StPaul, for Minny is the overall #1. But, if you try, you end up with BC v HEA in Worcester, and you can't have that. So, how do you fix that?
3 possibilities: EITHER move BC to Cincy to play Miami (not the greatest for BC obviously - away from fans, plus it's more or less a home game for Miami) OR swap AHA champ for HEA team and have Minny v NU (not greatest for Minny, obviously... they earned the lower seed as an opponent) OR disregard the conference rule on basis of 5 HEA teams in the field.

So, that's a bad deal.

However, I can't find a way to put Miami in that also puts 2 HEA teams at 13 and 14.

Anybody want to help?

 

[mnstate0fhockey]

One other oddity that came up. CHN has a bit of a discussion about a Doomsday scenario for the committee, which would go like this:
Miami wins NCHC and therefore comes in at 15th or 16th in the PWR.
AHA Champ is obviously the other of 15 or 16.
What if Northeastern and Vermont (or some other HEA team) comes in at 13 AND 14?

Then, the bracket has issues. Miami is host, so they have to play at Cincinnati. Minny is host, so they have to play in St Paul. You would like to put AHA in StPaul, for Minny is the overall #1. But, if you try, you end up with BC v HEA in Worcester, and you can't have that. So, how do you fix that?
3 possibilities: EITHER move BC to Cincy to play Miami (not the greatest for BC obviously - away from fans, plus it's more or less a home game for Miami) OR swap AHA champ for HEA team and have Minny v NU (not greatest for Minny, obviously... they earned the lower seed as an opponent) OR disregard the conference rule on basis of 5 HEA teams in the field.

So, that's a bad deal.

However, I can't find a way to put Miami in that also puts 2 HEA teams at 13 and 14.

Anybody want to help?

“@smclaughlin9: Stumbled on a scenario where HEA gets 7 teams in even with Miami stealing a bid. So that's something. <a href="http://goo.gl/YZTLrA">LINK</a>”

Got to imagine they would have a HE matchup in the first round with the current rules before they would move BC or move a higher first round matchup against the #1 overall seed.

That said, if they donmt want to matchup two conference opponents in the first round, BC should move.

 

[JimDahl]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

My most recent (last?) pre-conference tournament article:

Unlikely outcomes — how BC and Union could swap; Providence and SCSU could miss; and UND, Colgate, and Cornell could make it without any more wins