USCHO Fan Forum
This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
-
The USCHO Fan Forum has migrated to a new plaform, xenForo. Most of the function of the forum should work in familiar ways. Please note that you can switch between light and dark modes by clicking on the gear icon in the upper right of the main menu bar. We are hoping that this new platform will prove to be faster and more reliable. Please feel free to explore its features.
Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`
It seems to me that the first tiebreaker ought to be H2H, if applicable. Isn't that the basic idea of the pairwise, each team considered individually against every other team? Moreover, I'm annoyed that they de-emphasized H2H (don't know quite when - this year?). Used to be if I beat you 3-0 during the season I received 3 comparison points rather than the measly one I would get now. If the point is each pair of teams compared in a vacuum, shouldn't a season sweep be strongly rewarded? With the schedule scrambling that occurred in HE this year, some teams could meet six or seven times. Wouldn't 6-0 or 5-2 in favor of one team be more indicative than the combination of RPI and common opponents for that particular pair?
How come the guys in charge of this stuff aren't as bright as us board denizens?
It seems to me that the first tiebreaker ought to be H2H, if applicable. Isn't that the basic idea of the pairwise, each team considered individually against every other team? Moreover, I'm annoyed that they de-emphasized H2H (don't know quite when - this year?). Used to be if I beat you 3-0 during the season I received 3 comparison points rather than the measly one I would get now. If the point is each pair of teams compared in a vacuum, shouldn't a season sweep be strongly rewarded? With the schedule scrambling that occurred in HE this year, some teams could meet six or seven times. Wouldn't 6-0 or 5-2 in favor of one team be more indicative than the combination of RPI and common opponents for that particular pair?
How come the guys in charge of this stuff aren't as bright as us board denizens?
UnionHockeyManiac
Union Hockey fan for life
Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`
All of you have to do to ignore Union is look down in the standings from where RPI is. You'll never see them.
Why not the Hudson River? Then I could ignore Union.
All of you have to do to ignore Union is look down in the standings from where RPI is. You'll never see them.
TonyTheTiger20
#SOAR
Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`
Where did you see that? As far as I can tell that's still the case...
Patman
Rodent of Unusual Size
Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`
Even if not entirely the case, the removal of one of the points does make the RPI more relevant, afterall, you have to overcome the RPI as its own "point" and then as the tie-break. Making that removal makes that harder.
Even if not entirely the case, the removal of one of the points does make the RPI more relevant, afterall, you have to overcome the RPI as its own "point" and then as the tie-break. Making that removal makes that harder.
Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`
I glanced too quickly at the table. Never-mind
I glanced too quickly at the table. Never-mind
P
Priceless
Guest
Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`
Today's pairwise:
1 Minnesota
2 Boston College
3 Ferris State
4 Quinnipiac
5 St. Cloud State
6 Union
7 Northeastern
8 Providence
9 Wisconsin
10 Mass.-Lowell
11 Cornell
12 Yale
13 New Hampshire
14 Clarkson
15 Michigan
---
16 Notre Dame
17 Vermont
18 Maine
19 North Dakota
20 Minnesota-Duluth
21 Colgate
22 Bowling Green
23 Minnesota State
24 Brown
25 Western Michigan
26 Denver
27 Miami
28 Ohio State
29 Alaska-Anchorage
30 St. Lawrence
31 Lake Superior
32 Air Force
33 Northern Michigan
34 Rensselaer
35 Mercyhurst
36 Bemidji State
37 Alaska-Fairbanks
38 Nebraska-Omaha
39 Massachusetts
40 Harvard
41 Bentley
42 Michigan Tech
43 Michigan State
44 Merrimack
45 Boston University
46 Canisius
47 Connecticut
48 Dartmouth
49 RIT
50 Princeton
51 Penn State
52 Colorado College
53 Niagara
54 Robert Morris
55 American Int'l
56 Holy Cross
57 Alabama-Huntsville
58 Sacred Heart
59 Army
Quick bracketology:
Almost perfect brackets. Switch up Cornell and Lowell to avoid intraconference matchups and swap Michigan and Clarkson for attendance.
Will have a longer update next weekend.
Today's pairwise:
1 Minnesota
2 Boston College
3 Ferris State
4 Quinnipiac
5 St. Cloud State
6 Union
7 Northeastern
8 Providence
9 Wisconsin
10 Mass.-Lowell
11 Cornell
12 Yale
13 New Hampshire
14 Clarkson
15 Michigan
---
16 Notre Dame
17 Vermont
18 Maine
19 North Dakota
20 Minnesota-Duluth
21 Colgate
22 Bowling Green
23 Minnesota State
24 Brown
25 Western Michigan
26 Denver
27 Miami
28 Ohio State
29 Alaska-Anchorage
30 St. Lawrence
31 Lake Superior
32 Air Force
33 Northern Michigan
34 Rensselaer
35 Mercyhurst
36 Bemidji State
37 Alaska-Fairbanks
38 Nebraska-Omaha
39 Massachusetts
40 Harvard
41 Bentley
42 Michigan Tech
43 Michigan State
44 Merrimack
45 Boston University
46 Canisius
47 Connecticut
48 Dartmouth
49 RIT
50 Princeton
51 Penn State
52 Colorado College
53 Niagara
54 Robert Morris
55 American Int'l
56 Holy Cross
57 Alabama-Huntsville
58 Sacred Heart
59 Army
Quick bracketology:
Code:
[B]Bridgeport (Yale) Worcester (Holy Cross) Cincinnati (Miami) St Paul (Minnesota)[/B]
Quinnipiac Boston College Ferris State Minnesota
St Cloud Northeastern Union Providence
Yale Cornell Lowell Wisconsin
New Hampshire Clarkson Michigan Air ForceAlmost perfect brackets. Switch up Cornell and Lowell to avoid intraconference matchups and swap Michigan and Clarkson for attendance.
Will have a longer update next weekend.
Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`
I know Priceless will be back on Sunday with lots of information, but I thought today I would do a quick analysis of how much can change in a few games (note Minnesota has played 3 games since Priceless' last post now).
Sat AM:
#1's: Minnesota, BC, QU, Ferris No change
#2's: St Cloud, Union, N'eastern, Providence No change, but Providence lost some cushion with last night's results
#3's: Wisconsin, Lowell, Cornell, Clarkson Here is where things really tighten up. Yale went from being a #3 to out of the field.
#4's: Notre Dame, Michigan, Maine, Atlantic Champ More changes. New Hampshire out, Maine in.
No need for a bracketology, but some comments: Since the PWR is almost (not entirely) the same as RPI now, just look at RPI numbers to see how your team might be doing.
Minnesota - Looks secure for a #1, because they have .0300 or so on 5th place SCSU.
BC, QU - Strong situation for #1s
Ferris, St Cloud, Union, N'eastern - a good lead on #13, so would appear to safe to at least a #3 seed, maybe higher
From Providence at #8 to Vermont at #21 is the same difference in RPI as from Minnesota to St Cloud. Obviously, this is very tight, and a weekend has the possibility of making a big difference.
I know Priceless will be back on Sunday with lots of information, but I thought today I would do a quick analysis of how much can change in a few games (note Minnesota has played 3 games since Priceless' last post now).
Sat AM:
#1's: Minnesota, BC, QU, Ferris No change
#2's: St Cloud, Union, N'eastern, Providence No change, but Providence lost some cushion with last night's results
#3's: Wisconsin, Lowell, Cornell, Clarkson Here is where things really tighten up. Yale went from being a #3 to out of the field.
#4's: Notre Dame, Michigan, Maine, Atlantic Champ More changes. New Hampshire out, Maine in.
No need for a bracketology, but some comments: Since the PWR is almost (not entirely) the same as RPI now, just look at RPI numbers to see how your team might be doing.
Minnesota - Looks secure for a #1, because they have .0300 or so on 5th place SCSU.
BC, QU - Strong situation for #1s
Ferris, St Cloud, Union, N'eastern - a good lead on #13, so would appear to safe to at least a #3 seed, maybe higher
From Providence at #8 to Vermont at #21 is the same difference in RPI as from Minnesota to St Cloud. Obviously, this is very tight, and a weekend has the possibility of making a big difference.
Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`
There is an earlier thread here which likely could be found be querying "whelan" in which we all were trying to figure that out.
Basically, Vs #1 = +.005; #2, +.00475; #3 +.0045, etc unto #20. I believe these are home/road scaled 0.8/1.2. Use ties as half of the bonus (so a tie with the Gophers on neutral ice = +.0025). And, you go by current rankings RIGHT NOW, not when the game was played. Add those all up, divide by the number of games played (not home/road scaled). And, add that number to the Raw RPI.
Examples here: http://pwr.reillyhamilton.com/pwr.php listed after the order of teams. Hamilton uses a 100.00 scale rather than a 1.000 scale, so be aware of the difference when looking at QWB. But, I think you can follow it easy enough.
I see that he has a slightly different result for Minnesota than the others. My current guess is that it is because there would be some question whether the TCF Bank game last night was Home or Neutral.
And, I believe the Bonus applies all all Top 20 games, but just OOC
There is an earlier thread here which likely could be found be querying "whelan" in which we all were trying to figure that out.
Basically, Vs #1 = +.005; #2, +.00475; #3 +.0045, etc unto #20. I believe these are home/road scaled 0.8/1.2. Use ties as half of the bonus (so a tie with the Gophers on neutral ice = +.0025). And, you go by current rankings RIGHT NOW, not when the game was played. Add those all up, divide by the number of games played (not home/road scaled). And, add that number to the Raw RPI.
Examples here: http://pwr.reillyhamilton.com/pwr.php listed after the order of teams. Hamilton uses a 100.00 scale rather than a 1.000 scale, so be aware of the difference when looking at QWB. But, I think you can follow it easy enough.
I see that he has a slightly different result for Minnesota than the others. My current guess is that it is because there would be some question whether the TCF Bank game last night was Home or Neutral.
And, I believe the Bonus applies all all Top 20 games, but just OOC
Last edited:
TonyTheTiger20
#SOAR
Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`
I thought each win was cumulative? Most of the top teams have a bonus that is >0.005...
Not sure what you mean by cumulative. Each game against a top 20 opponent counts. Add up all the bonus points. That's s big number. For Minnesota, 0.1450. Turn, that number is scaled by the number of games played. For Minnesota,21.
Hope this helps.
TonyTheTiger20
#SOAR
Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`
I must be totally missing something. If the biggest bonus you can get for a win is 0.005, and then add them all up and divide them by the number of games you have, the highest your average can be is 0.005. But we have BC, for example, sitting at 0.009?
Sorry. Try it 0.05 and so on... Look at Reilly Hamilton site. It shoes all the details for each team.
TonyTheTiger20
#SOAR
Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`
Ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhh okay, that makes much more sense -- thank you!
Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`
Sorry again. I was trying to post from my phone. I never really worry about the decimals until the end, and then since I know how it has to work out, I just move them accordingly.
Sorry again. I was trying to post from my phone. I never really worry about the decimals until the end, and then since I know how it has to work out, I just move them accordingly.
Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`
Yes they change. But, you only do it once. No iteration.
1) Rank the teams by RPI (which is numerically labourous, because of the 0.8/1.2 thing depending on home/away).
2) Add QWB points based on results with those teams
3) Re-rank with what now is "Final RPI"
Essentially, the final definition of RPI is not "This is a good number that compares the teams records, adjusted for who they played." No, the final definition is:
This is a good number comparing teams across their schedules, but we want to give incentive to play better teams, especially on the road, so that is figured in.......
Kind of like last years RPI and TUC molded into 1 number.
Yes they change. But, you only do it once. No iteration.
1) Rank the teams by RPI (which is numerically labourous, because of the 0.8/1.2 thing depending on home/away).
2) Add QWB points based on results with those teams
3) Re-rank with what now is "Final RPI"
Essentially, the final definition of RPI is not "This is a good number that compares the teams records, adjusted for who they played." No, the final definition is:
This is a good number comparing teams across their schedules, but we want to give incentive to play better teams, especially on the road, so that is figured in.......
Kind of like last years RPI and TUC molded into 1 number.
P
Priceless
Guest
Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`
In the past 11 years there have been 20 teams that qualified thanks to the autobid and 156 who qualified by being ranked high enough (autobid or not) to make the NCAA tournament. Of the 156 teams, 121 (77.6%) that qualified as of the mid-January PWR would have made the eventual field. For teams ranked in the top 8 that percentage gets better. 41 of the 44 (93.2%) teams that were ranked 1-4 in the mid-January PWR have made the tournament. 37 of the 44 (84.1%) teams ranked 5-8 made it. "Only" 28 of the 44 (63.6%) teams ranked 9-12 qualified. In 2005 11 of the top 12 teams in the mid-January PWR qualified. Last year, #5 Boston University, #10 Western Michigan and #12 Dartmouth did not qualify. As I predicted last year at this time, Wisconsin did make the tournament, coming from 26th in the pairwise.
26 teams fell out of the NCAA tournament that were ranked 1-12 in mid-January. Teams that have fallen out twice include Denver, Minnesota-Duluth, Ohio State, Vermont and they are joined by BU and Dartmouth. Conference affiliations have been shot to hell, but for the period 2003-2013, eight WCHA teams had fallen out of contention, along with seven from Hockey East, six from the CCHA and five from the ECAC.
As for the top of this year's rankings, it's very hard to imagine a scenario where Minnesota or BC fail to make the tournament. I'm sure if someone tries hard enough they can find a way, but for all intents the Gophers and Eagles are in. Likewise, it would take Union and Quinnipiac badly stubbing their toe in conference play to drop out. Ferris should also make it, but that's been said before - they were #5 in 2010 and fell all the way out.
Today's pairwise
1 Minnesota
2 Boston College
3 Quinnipiac
4 Union
5 Ferris State
6 Providence
7 Northeastern
8 St. Cloud State
9 Mass.-Lowell
10 Wisconsin
11 Notre Dame
12 Clarkson
13 Cornell
14 Yale
15 Michigan
--
16 Vermont
17 Minnesota State
18 Maine
19 North Dakota
20 Colgate
21 Western Michigan
22 New Hampshire
23 Denver
24 Bowling Green
25 Minnesota-Duluth
26 Brown
27 Alaska-Anchorage
28 Air Force
29 Ohio State
30 Miami
31 Nebraska-Omaha
32 Lake Superior
33 Northern Michigan
34 Rensselaer
35 St. Lawrence
36 Alaska-Fairbanks
37 Mercyhurst
38 Bemidji State
39 Bentley
40 Michigan State
41 Merrimack
42 Michigan Tech
43 Harvard
44 Massachusetts
45 Connecticut
46 Boston University
47 Canisius
48 Dartmouth
49 RIT
50 Princeton
51 Colorado College
52 Penn State
53 Holy Cross
54 Robert Morris
55 American Int'l
56 Niagara
57 Sacred Heart
58 Alabama-Huntsville
59 Army
Putting teams into bands is going to prove crucial in today's bracketology.
1 seeds - Minnesota, Boston College, Quinnipiac, Union
2 seeds - Ferris State. Providence, Northesatern, St Cloud
3 seeds - Lowell, Wisconsin, Notre Dame, Clarkson
4 seeds - Cornell, Yale, Michigan, Air Force
#1 Minnesota and #14 Yale are hosts so they get placed first.
Then place BC in Worcester, Quinnipiac in Bridgeport (problem 1) and Union in Cincinnati.
The 2 seeds follow - Ferris in Cincy, Providence in Bridgeport, Northeastern in Worcester and St Cloud in St Paul. So far so good.
The 3 seeds go Lowell in St Paul, Wisconsin in Worcester, Notre Dame in Bridgeport (problem 2) and Clarkson in Cincy.
Yale already represents the 4 seeds in Bridgeport. Air Force is the bottom seed so they go to St Paul, Michigan to Worcester and Cornell to Cincinnati (problem 3).
That gives us a bracket that looks like:
Problems all over the place. Now, the rules state that if a conference gets five teams in, intraconference first-round games are allowed. Both Hockey East and the ECAC have five teams so technically this can go forward. However, one look at the Cincinnati bracket shows it will be an attendance wasteland. We can do better, but it is going to require more than a little tinkering.
Minnesota and Yale are both hosts, so can't be moved. There are two #1 seeds from the ECAC so the only possible team to go Bridgeport is BC. Quinnipiac goes to Worcester. Notre Dame and Clarkson trade places to resolve the problem with 3 seeds which leaves us with a dilemma with the 4 seeds. Cornell can't go to either Cincinnati or Worcester so the Big Red have to go to St Paul. #16 Air Force would then be slotted with #2, but that spot is already taken by Yale. They can go to Cincinnati, but looking at attendance, Michigan AND Notre Dame in Ohio is too good to pass up. The Falcons fly to Worcester.
That gives us our final bracket of:
In the past 11 years there have been 20 teams that qualified thanks to the autobid and 156 who qualified by being ranked high enough (autobid or not) to make the NCAA tournament. Of the 156 teams, 121 (77.6%) that qualified as of the mid-January PWR would have made the eventual field. For teams ranked in the top 8 that percentage gets better. 41 of the 44 (93.2%) teams that were ranked 1-4 in the mid-January PWR have made the tournament. 37 of the 44 (84.1%) teams ranked 5-8 made it. "Only" 28 of the 44 (63.6%) teams ranked 9-12 qualified. In 2005 11 of the top 12 teams in the mid-January PWR qualified. Last year, #5 Boston University, #10 Western Michigan and #12 Dartmouth did not qualify. As I predicted last year at this time, Wisconsin did make the tournament, coming from 26th in the pairwise.
26 teams fell out of the NCAA tournament that were ranked 1-12 in mid-January. Teams that have fallen out twice include Denver, Minnesota-Duluth, Ohio State, Vermont and they are joined by BU and Dartmouth. Conference affiliations have been shot to hell, but for the period 2003-2013, eight WCHA teams had fallen out of contention, along with seven from Hockey East, six from the CCHA and five from the ECAC.
As for the top of this year's rankings, it's very hard to imagine a scenario where Minnesota or BC fail to make the tournament. I'm sure if someone tries hard enough they can find a way, but for all intents the Gophers and Eagles are in. Likewise, it would take Union and Quinnipiac badly stubbing their toe in conference play to drop out. Ferris should also make it, but that's been said before - they were #5 in 2010 and fell all the way out.
Today's pairwise
1 Minnesota
2 Boston College
3 Quinnipiac
4 Union
5 Ferris State
6 Providence
7 Northeastern
8 St. Cloud State
9 Mass.-Lowell
10 Wisconsin
11 Notre Dame
12 Clarkson
13 Cornell
14 Yale
15 Michigan
--
16 Vermont
17 Minnesota State
18 Maine
19 North Dakota
20 Colgate
21 Western Michigan
22 New Hampshire
23 Denver
24 Bowling Green
25 Minnesota-Duluth
26 Brown
27 Alaska-Anchorage
28 Air Force
29 Ohio State
30 Miami
31 Nebraska-Omaha
32 Lake Superior
33 Northern Michigan
34 Rensselaer
35 St. Lawrence
36 Alaska-Fairbanks
37 Mercyhurst
38 Bemidji State
39 Bentley
40 Michigan State
41 Merrimack
42 Michigan Tech
43 Harvard
44 Massachusetts
45 Connecticut
46 Boston University
47 Canisius
48 Dartmouth
49 RIT
50 Princeton
51 Colorado College
52 Penn State
53 Holy Cross
54 Robert Morris
55 American Int'l
56 Niagara
57 Sacred Heart
58 Alabama-Huntsville
59 Army
Putting teams into bands is going to prove crucial in today's bracketology.
1 seeds - Minnesota, Boston College, Quinnipiac, Union
2 seeds - Ferris State. Providence, Northesatern, St Cloud
3 seeds - Lowell, Wisconsin, Notre Dame, Clarkson
4 seeds - Cornell, Yale, Michigan, Air Force
#1 Minnesota and #14 Yale are hosts so they get placed first.
Then place BC in Worcester, Quinnipiac in Bridgeport (problem 1) and Union in Cincinnati.
The 2 seeds follow - Ferris in Cincy, Providence in Bridgeport, Northeastern in Worcester and St Cloud in St Paul. So far so good.
The 3 seeds go Lowell in St Paul, Wisconsin in Worcester, Notre Dame in Bridgeport (problem 2) and Clarkson in Cincy.
Yale already represents the 4 seeds in Bridgeport. Air Force is the bottom seed so they go to St Paul, Michigan to Worcester and Cornell to Cincinnati (problem 3).
That gives us a bracket that looks like:
Code:
[B]Bridgeport (Yale) Worcester (Holy Cross) Cincinnati (Miami) St Paul (Minnesota)[/B]
Quinnipiac Boston College Union Minnesota
Providence Northeastern Ferris State St Cloud
Notre Dame Wisconsin Clarkson Lowell
Yale Michigan Cornell Air ForceProblems all over the place. Now, the rules state that if a conference gets five teams in, intraconference first-round games are allowed. Both Hockey East and the ECAC have five teams so technically this can go forward. However, one look at the Cincinnati bracket shows it will be an attendance wasteland. We can do better, but it is going to require more than a little tinkering.
Minnesota and Yale are both hosts, so can't be moved. There are two #1 seeds from the ECAC so the only possible team to go Bridgeport is BC. Quinnipiac goes to Worcester. Notre Dame and Clarkson trade places to resolve the problem with 3 seeds which leaves us with a dilemma with the 4 seeds. Cornell can't go to either Cincinnati or Worcester so the Big Red have to go to St Paul. #16 Air Force would then be slotted with #2, but that spot is already taken by Yale. They can go to Cincinnati, but looking at attendance, Michigan AND Notre Dame in Ohio is too good to pass up. The Falcons fly to Worcester.
That gives us our final bracket of:
Code:
[B]Bridgeport (Yale) Worcester (Holy Cross) Cincinnati (Miami) St Paul (Minnesota)[/B]
Boston College Quinnipac Union Minnesota
Northeastern Providence Ferris State St Cloud
Wisconsin Clarkson Notre Dame Lowell
Yale Air Force Michigan Cornell
Last edited: