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The 2012 Presidential Election Part I - The guns of August

Re: The 2012 Presidential Election Part I - The guns of August

Interesting "take" from Dick Morris:

Several key swing states have Republican governors.

Thanks to the policies implemented by these governors, unemployment in these states is declining below the national average.

Will the success of Republican governorship thereby lead to a loss for the Republican presidential candidate?


or will the governors somehow be able to say "we need to replicate the results from our state on a national level" ?


Morris thinks the former will occur, not the latter.
That's a level of nuance that the general public is unlikely to notice, so Morris is probably right.
 
Re: The 2012 Presidential Election Part I - The guns of August

I've heard people arguing over whether we should cut defense spending, or maintain it at a certain level, or increase it, and I think there is a bigger picture question we need to ask first, after which the answer to the funding question will follow.
Rather than argue about the amount we spend on defense, doesn't it make more sense to say, first, what is the role of the military in our international relations? What kind of equipment and personnel do we need to support those roles? how important are these priorities relative to other important priorities? and how do we balance them out?

Many people forget that it was President Dwight Eisenhower, former general, who coined the term "military-industrial complex" to describe the incestuous relationships among government procurement officials, defense contractors, and lobbyists for the same; it was Eisenhower who warned us to beware the seduction of fancy gadgets that distract us from the meat-and-potatoes basics that should be our first priority.

Couple of points.

There has not been much argument over whether to maintain or increase military spending on this board as supporters have been silent.

We do need to adjust our military to match our policy (as you and Kep say). But the policy really needs to reflect international reality of today. And that is that the cold war is over, day to day international business now dwarfs political headlines we read here, the world is more democratic, governments more beholden to its people, and the UN has more sway in terms of opinion outside the US than ever before. So an aggressive conventional army military stance was likely overstated during the cold war and has very few outcomes anymore, except making it more difficult for us conduct business overseas.

The benefits derived from military spending is minimal. We may get a once in a generation freeway system type benefit...but there's no evidence that that outcome would not have happened if our military was say 30% smaller. Indeed, there is little or no benefit compared to benefits that directly impact society...esp education..where the ripple effect of real societal benefits could well have resulted in multiple freeway system type benefits. In stark contrast, the vast, vast majority of tanks simply sit in hangers their whole life (except in the extremely rare case where they're killing folks). Likewise, spending is frequently frivolous. I'm sure if the EU wanted to put a massive military base in the middle of Kansas...with the only purpose to drive massive amounts of capital into our great plains...I'm sure we'd shake our heads also.

All this would be less important but we are in a critical time of overspending. And this is of the utmost importance as US taxpayers are burdened with nearly half of the world's military costs...for a military that isn't even designed for the realities of US needs today of antiterror. And this fact is evidence 1A of why true 'fiscal conservatives' are largely an extinct breed (or at least rarely exist on the right). Whether anyone sees it or likes to admit it...nearly everyone has their own pet government project.
 
Re: The 2012 Presidential Election Part I - The guns of August

Couple of points.

There has not been much argument over whether to maintain or increase military spending on this board as supporters have been silent.
This almost seems to be true all over. I don't understand why the Republicans all seem to inflexible on this issue when there is so much support for cutting. Are the campaign contributions from defense contractors worth that much, or what?

the UN has more sway in terms of opinion outside the US than ever before.

I'm curious where this statement comes from. With very tiny knowledge, I had the opposite impression that they had lost a lot of influence and respect globally due to inability to stop genocide, or stop nuclear weapons programs, or even provide security in Haiti, etc. Was I wrong?
 
Re: The 2012 Presidential Election Part I - The guns of August

The UN is a mess and largely useless in times of crisis.

It was designed that way. People overseas having a nice opinion of the blue hats isn't going to change that. Thinking they're going to fill the gap we leave behind as we withdraw as opposed to China, India and other regional actors is wondering why that boat you bought doesn't fly.
 
Re: The 2012 Presidential Election Part I - The guns of August

The UN is a mess and largely useless in times of crisis.

It was designed that way. People overseas having a nice opinion of the blue hats isn't going to change that. Thinking they're going to fill the gap we leave behind as we withdraw as opposed to China, India and other regional actors is wondering why that boat you bought doesn't fly.
Agreed on the UN. Of course that doesn't change the fact that long term we can't afford to police the whole world and have bases all over the place. We will have to scale back and let others pick up some more of the burden. Defense spending will have to be cut, along with other major parts of the budget. We can do it now and it'll be less painful, or we can do it later when fiscal realities give us no choice, and the pain will likely be much greater. That said, I'm sure we'll kick the can down the road as we always do.
 
Re: The 2012 Presidential Election Part I - The guns of August

When is an increase not an increase?

The "Ryan budget" calls for Federal spending to increase at an annual rate of 3.1%.

The Obama "budget" (such that it is...nothing has passed the Senate in three years! :eek:), calls for Federal spending to increase at an annual rate of 4.3%.


Wow, those mean nasty vicious Republicans with all their budget "cuts", eh? :p
 
Re: The 2012 Presidential Election Part I - The guns of August

This almost seems to be true all over. I don't understand why the Republicans all seem to inflexible on this issue when there is so much support for cutting. Are the campaign contributions from defense contractors worth that much, or what?

I'm curious where this statement comes from. With very tiny knowledge, I had the opposite impression that they had lost a lot of influence and respect globally due to inability to stop genocide, or stop nuclear weapons programs, or even provide security in Haiti, etc. Was I wrong?

Comment 1: I think it comes down to a combination of defense contractor money...and concerns that it will cost swing votes (IMO based on voter misperceptions). These are cornerstones of the flaws in our governing process.

Comment 2: I've been to approximately 30 countries and this is my read on what's going on outside the US. The UN is not typically seen as the world problem conflict ender (to Bronco's point its not been allowed to have that role). But rather its seen as the conscience of what we should be doing and the place for international cooperation to get stuff done...but without any means of enforcing its ramifications. So in a the first Iraq war, the UN was the lightning rod by which world governments and people got behind the effort. It was jointly decided on how to accomplish it and it was executed on. There is no way that that 'war' would have occurred as efficiently and as cheaply and with as much global support as it did without the UN.

This is really happening every day with the UN on many other issues...its just boring day to day and never reaches US headlines. Unlike in the US where these other activities don't see the light of day, the rest of the world does get this. And as with the smaller states vs. the opinions of the larger governments of the US and the EU, the UN globally has significant sway and respect in other countries. These countries rarely have the kind of governmental strength and pervasiveness like we do here...while they're culture is not so isolated as it is here. Imagine countries where the modern governments are just a generation or two old...like Litbuania, Thailand and Peru.

The UN is a mess and largely useless in times of crisis.

IMO that's an overstatement. Although you are correct that it is not designed to operate at full functionality, many of its complimentary roles in times of crisis are very significant lifesaving endevors. But just as with overseas business...you wouldn't know it based on the fact US media outlets report news that excite their readers.
 
Re: The 2012 Presidential Election Part I - The guns of August

When is an increase not an increase?

The "Ryan budget" calls for Federal spending to increase at an annual rate of 3.1%.

The Obama "budget" (such that it is...nothing has passed the Senate in three years! :eek:), calls for Federal spending to increase at an annual rate of 4.3%.


Wow, those mean nasty vicious Republicans with all their budget "cuts", eh? :p

Either receive a quick beheading, or be purified by pain (i.e. hanged, drawn, and quartered).
 
Re: The 2012 Presidential Election Part I - The guns of August

Couple of points.

There has not been much argument over whether to maintain or increase military spending on this board as supporters have been silent.

We do need to adjust our military to match our policy (as you and Kep say). But the policy really needs to reflect international reality of today. And that is that the cold war is over, day to day international business now dwarfs political headlines we read here, the world is more democratic, governments more beholden to its people, and the UN has more sway in terms of opinion outside the US than ever before. So an aggressive conventional army military stance was likely overstated during the cold war and has very few outcomes anymore, except making it more difficult for us conduct business overseas.

The benefits derived from military spending is minimal. We may get a once in a generation freeway system type benefit...but there's no evidence that that outcome would not have happened if our military was say 30% smaller. Indeed, there is little or no benefit compared to benefits that directly impact society...esp education..where the ripple effect of real societal benefits could well have resulted in multiple freeway system type benefits. In stark contrast, the vast, vast majority of tanks simply sit in hangers their whole life (except in the extremely rare case where they're killing folks). Likewise, spending is frequently frivolous. I'm sure if the EU wanted to put a massive military base in the middle of Kansas...with the only purpose to drive massive amounts of capital into our great plains...I'm sure we'd shake our heads also.

All this would be less important but we are in a critical time of overspending. And this is of the utmost importance as US taxpayers are burdened with nearly half of the world's military costs...for a military that isn't even designed for the realities of US needs today of antiterror. And this fact is evidence 1A of why true 'fiscal conservatives' are largely an extinct breed (or at least rarely exist on the right). Whether anyone sees it or likes to admit it...nearly everyone has their own pet government project.

Where on earth did you get to be such an expert on the needs, capabilities, lack of planning and nature of our military? So dogmatic. So assured. So wrong. My guess is you wouldn't know an M-16 from an M1A2. I suppose all of the base closures, command restructuring and strategic weapons dismantling has just escaped your attention. How could someone so well informed on defense matters not have noticed?

And in this world of yours where the UN has "more sway," who do you figure is going to pay for all of those paratroopers from Burundi to keep the peace in Afghanistan? And what, exactly, is the UN going to do about Russian military adventurism (we learned just this week they had a nuclear armed Akula cruising in the Gulf)? And what, exactly, is the UN going to do about a nuclear armed Iran? Because there's certainly nothing the UN can or will do to stop them from completing their weapons program. And what, exactly, is the UN planning to do to meet the threat posed by the Chinese?

And what, exactly, did you mean by that gibberish about a "conventional army military stance" that was "likely overstated" in the cold war? Again, being an expert on military matters, you might have noticed that what defined the cold war was the growth and proliferation of strategic nuclear weapons. Our army and conventional forces were always outnumbered by the Warsaw Pact. Naturally, in your analysis the cold war was an "overstatement" by the United States, and not a reaction to efforts at achieving global hegemony by the Soviet Union. We just misunderstood them.

Your posts are generally characterized by dreamy, socialist utopian crapola. But you outdid yourself with your hypothetical about the EU and some giant military installation in America's heartland. What in the world did you mean by that? In your world, I guess, it would be a good thing for foreign governments to establish a military base on our soil if it would help bring capital to Kansas. The concept of sovereignty being just one more thing you need to brush up on.

And your penetrating analysis of our tanks not being used until they're needed could easily be expanded to include every weapons sytem. Heck, every soldier, sailor, airman or marine. We should just start with a clean sheet of paper every time. Why would we want to have all that stuff just sitting around until it's time to "kill some people?" Add preparedness to the list of concepts you need to brush up on.

If the war against global Islamo-fascism was the only threat we faced, then you might have a point (albeit just barely) about our military not being capable of dealing with the "real" threats. But of course Islamo-facism isn't the only threat to the peace or the safe conduct of the world's business. What will your precious UN do when Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz (as they constantly threaten to do)? Send them a note? Embargo Tootsie Rolls? What?

Besides, we have made great strides technologically and organizationally to deal with Islamo-fascists. You may not have noticed (although I don't see how that's possible, given that the President takes credit for it five or six times a day) but our special ops people and their advanced training and weapons made sure Bin Laden took one in the face. And we are daily increasing our capacity and accuracy with drones to reach out and touch these mother effers.

And can we get someone to translate your "point" about military spending would be better suited to education and the creation of "multiple freeway systems." You figure we don't have enough? Would these "multiple freeways" be side by side with the ones we already have or double deckers? The fact that we spend way more per pupil than any nation on earth has obviously also escaped your attention. Our problems in education have nothing to do with the amount we spend on defense. Spending more, at the expense of defense, will not usher in an educational nirvana.

Finally, your assertion that fiscal conservatives "rarely exist on the right," is a howler, even by your semi-informed standards. Are there fiscal conservatives on the left? In the offices of ACORN? Or LaRaza? Or the NAACP? Or SEIU?

The world is a dangerous place. And it has fallen to us to try to ameliorate that danger. And no international body is capable of doing that. Just us. And if, as you say, the world is more democratic now than it has ever been, what do you suppose is largely responsible for that? The United States and its military.
 
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Re: The 2012 Presidential Election Part I - The guns of August

When is an increase not an increase?

The "Ryan budget" calls for Federal spending to increase at an annual rate of 3.1%.

The Obama "budget" (such that it is...nothing has passed the Senate in three years! :eek:), calls for Federal spending to increase at an annual rate of 4.3%.


Wow, those mean nasty vicious Republicans with all their budget "cuts", eh? :p

I don't think the amount of federal spending is the difference that I'm concerned about.
 
Re: The 2012 Presidential Election Part I - The guns of August

I thought Ryan was the Fiscal Jesus Christ/Ronald Regan and was going to cut spending and balance the budget? How can you do that and increase spending since no Republican is allowed to raise taxes? Oh yeah, he spends on the things he cares about while cutting the crap he dislikes.

Meet the new boss, same as the old boss. He is as fiscally pure as I am Catholic...
 
Re: The 2012 Presidential Election Part I - The guns of August

This almost seems to be true all over. I don't understand why the Republicans all seem to inflexible on this issue when there is so much support for cutting. Are the campaign contributions from defense contractors worth that much, or what?
It's several things.

1. Kickbacks from contractors. The campaign bribes are pretty big. But this reason holds for both parties.

2. Demographics. The military is a welfare plantation for some of the GOP's biggest demo groups.

3. Image. Particularly in the south, G. I. Jesus reins.

4. Ideology. The Neocon worldview has us ever marching for political and economic lebensraum.

Put it all together and the GOP is completely wedded to military spending.
 
Re: The 2012 Presidential Election Part I - The guns of August

Where on earth did you get to be such an expert on the needs, capabilities, lack of planning and nature of our military? So dogmatic. So assured. So wrong. My guess is you wouldn't know an M-16 from an M1A2. I suppose all of the base closures, command restructuring and strategic weapons dismantling has just escaped your attention. How could someone so well informed on defense matters not have noticed?

And in this world of yours where the UN has "more sway," who do you figure is going to pay for all of those paratroopers from Burundi to keep the peace in Afghanistan? And what, exactly, is the UN going to do about Russian military adventurism (we learned just this week they had a nuclear armed Akula cruising in the Gulf)? And what, exactly, is the UN going to do about a nuclear armed Iran? Because there's certainly nothing the UN can or will do to stop them from completing their weapons program. And what, exactly, is the UN planning to do to meet the threat posed by the Chinese?

And what, exactly, did you mean by that gibberish about a "conventional army military stance" that was "likely overstated" in the cold war? Again, being an expert on military matters, you might have noticed that what defined the cold war was the growth and proliferation of strategic nuclear weapons. Our army and conventional forces were always outnumbered by the Warsaw Pact. Naturally, in your analysis the cold war was an "overstatement" by the United States, and not a reaction to efforts at achieving global hegemony by the Soviet Union. We just misunderstood them.

Your posts are generally characterized by dreamy, socialist utopian crapola. But you outdid yourself with your hypothetical about the EU and some giant military installation in America's heartland. What in the world did you mean by that? In your world, I guess, it would be a good thing for foreign governments to establish a military base on our soil if it would help bring capital to Kansas. The concept of sovereignty being just one more thing you need to brush up on.

And your penetrating analysis of our tanks not being used until they're needed could easily be expanded to include every weapons sytem. Heck, every soldier, sailor, airman or marine. We should just start with a clean sheet of paper every time. Why would we want to have all that stuff just sitting around until it's time to "kill some people?" Add preparedness to the list of concepts you need to brush up on.

If the war against global Islamo-fascism was the only threat we faced, then you might have a point (albeit just barely) about our military not being capable of dealing with the "real" threats. But of course Islamo-facism isn't the only threat to the peace or the safe conduct of the world's business. What will your precious UN do when Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz (as they constantly threaten to do)? Send them a note? Embargo Tootsie Rolls? What?

Besides, we have made great strides technologically and organizationally to deal with Islamo-fascists. You may not have noticed (although I don't see how that's possible, given that the President takes credit for it five or six times a day) but our special ops people and their advanced training and weapons made sure Bin Laden took one in the face. And we are daily increasing our capacity and accuracy with drones to reach out and touch these mother effers.

And can we get someone to translate your "point" about military spending would be better suited to education and the creation of "multiple freeway systems." You figure we don't have enough? Would these "multiple freeways" be side by side with the ones we already have or double deckers? The fact that we spend way more per pupil than any nation on earth has obviously also escaped your attention. Our problems in education have nothing to do with the amount we spend on defense. Spending more, at the expense of defense, will not usher in an educational nirvana.

Finally, your assertion that fiscal conservatives "rarely exist on the right," is a howler, even by your semi-informed standards. Are there fiscal conservatives on the left? In the offices of ACORN? Or LaRaza? Or the NAACP? Or SEIU?

The world is a dangerous place. And it has fallen to us to try to ameliorate that danger. And no international body is capable of doing that. Just us. And if, as you say, the world is more democratic now than it has ever been, what do you suppose is largely responsible for that? The United States and its military.
That's classic Old Pio right there. I love this stuff. You mind if I use the bold part?
 
Re: The 2012 Presidential Election Part I - The guns of August

Where on earth did you get to be such an expert on the needs, capabilities, lack of planning and nature of our military? So dogmatic. So assured. So wrong. My guess is you wouldn't know an M-16 from an M1A2. I suppose all of the base closures, command restructuring and strategic weapons dismantling has just escaped your attention. How could someone so well informed on defense matters not have noticed?

And in this world of yours where the UN has "more sway," who do you figure is going to pay for all of those paratroopers from Burundi to keep the peace in Afghanistan? And what, exactly, is the UN going to do about Russian military adventurism (we learned just this week they had a nuclear armed Akula cruising in the Gulf)? And what, exactly, is the UN going to do about a nuclear armed Iran? Because there's certainly nothing the UN can or will do to stop them from completing their weapons program. And what, exactly, is the UN planning to do to meet the threat posed by the Chinese?

And what, exactly, did you mean by that gibberish about a "conventional army military stance" that was "likely overstated" in the cold war? Again, being an expert on military matters, you might have noticed that what defined the cold war was the growth and proliferation of strategic nuclear weapons. Our army and conventional forces were always outnumbered by the Warsaw Pact. Naturally, in your analysis the cold war was an "overstatement" by the United States, and not a reaction to efforts at achieving global hegemony by the Soviet Union. We just misunderstood them.

Your posts are generally characterized by dreamy, socialist utopian crapola. But you outdid yourself with your hypothetical about the EU and some giant military installation in America's heartland. What in the world did you mean by that? In your world, I guess, it would be a good thing for foreign governments to establish a military base on our soil if it would help bring capital to Kansas. The concept of sovereignty being just one more thing you need to brush up on.

And your penetrating analysis of our tanks not being used until they're needed could easily be expanded to include every weapons sytem. Heck, every soldier, sailor, airman or marine. We should just start with a clean sheet of paper every time. Why would we want to have all that stuff just sitting around until it's time to "kill some people?" Add preparedness to the list of concepts you need to brush up on.

If the war against global Islamo-fascism was the only threat we faced, then you might have a point (albeit just barely) about our military not being capable of dealing with the "real" threats. But of course Islamo-facism isn't the only threat to the peace or the safe conduct of the world's business. What will your precious UN do when Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz (as they constantly threaten to do)? Send them a note? Embargo Tootsie Rolls? What?

Besides, we have made great strides technologically and organizationally to deal with Islamo-fascists. You may not have noticed (although I don't see how that's possible, given that the President takes credit for it five or six times a day) but our special ops people and their advanced training and weapons made sure Bin Laden took one in the face. And we are daily increasing our capacity and accuracy with drones to reach out and touch these mother effers.

And can we get someone to translate your "point" about military spending would be better suited to education and the creation of "multiple freeway systems." You figure we don't have enough? Would these "multiple freeways" be side by side with the ones we already have or double deckers? The fact that we spend way more per pupil than any nation on earth has obviously also escaped your attention. Our problems in education have nothing to do with the amount we spend on defense. Spending more, at the expense of defense, will not usher in an educational nirvana.

Finally, your assertion that fiscal conservatives "rarely exist on the right," is a howler, even by your semi-informed standards. Are there fiscal conservatives on the left? In the offices of ACORN? Or LaRaza? Or the NAACP? Or SEIU?

The world is a dangerous place. And it has fallen to us to try to ameliorate that danger. And no international body is capable of doing that. Just us. And if, as you say, the world is more democratic now than it has ever been, what do you suppose is largely responsible for that? The United States and its military.
Impressive and comprehensive disassembling of 5mn's kooky ideas. Not that it'll stop 5mn for one moment. But kudos nonetheless.
 
Re: The 2012 Presidential Election Part I - The guns of August

And can we get someone to translate your "point" about military spending would be better suited to education and the creation of "multiple freeway systems."..

hearts & minds! :D
 
Re: The 2012 Presidential Election Part I - The guns of August

If the war against global Islamo-fascism was the only threat we faced, then you might have a point (albeit just barely) about our military not being capable of dealing with the "real" threats. But of course Islamo-facism isn't the only threat to the peace or the safe conduct of the world's business. What will your precious UN do when Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz (as they constantly threaten to do)? Send them a note? Embargo Tootsie Rolls? What?

This is just necessary...

<iframe width="420" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/UIPSvIz9NDs" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
 
Re: The 2012 Presidential Election Part I - The guns of August

Agreed on the UN. Of course that doesn't change the fact that long term we can't afford to police the whole world and have bases all over the place. We will have to scale back and let others pick up some more of the burden. Defense spending will have to be cut, along with other major parts of the budget. We can do it now and it'll be less painful, or we can do it later when fiscal realities give us no choice, and the pain will likely be much greater. That said, I'm sure we'll kick the can down the road as we always do.

switch to the gambino pricing model. 'you want protection, you gotta pay.'
 
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