This is only an administrative stay. Nothing more.
As background and Not to lose sight of what a lot of folks – myself included – think will show that Trump was laundering $$$ for the Russians – explaining why everything he does seems to help out Putin… Two Federal Appellate Courts – the 2nd Circuit in NY, and the DC Circuit – have now upheld subpoenas to Trump’s accountants Mazers for eight years of his taxes. The NY case is by the NY AG, the DC case is by house oversight committee.
In NY, Trump agreed with the NY AG to “stay” the case (not demand the tax returns be turned over immediately), provided that Trump filed any petition for review in the US supreme Court w/I 10 days. That time ran last week and Trump had to file a “Petition for Certiorari”
That will likely be considered by the Court in conference to see if they take the case on either December 13 or more likely January 10. It takes 4 votes to grant the petition to review the case.
In the DC case, Trump lost 2-1 (the one judge who supported him was appointed by him) then asked the full 11 member Court to review the decision, and he lost that 8-3 (the other Trump judges voted for him, as did a Bush Judge). There, Trump will not only had to petition for review, but he had to immediately ask the Supreme Court for a Stay to allow him to file a Cert. Petition. A stay takes 5 votes. The order on the stay request is what just came down.
I should note that some judges (Breyer in particular) will vote for stays as a “courtesy”, even if he will not vote to grant cert, so a stay being granted does not mean a lot. The reality is that the Court is balancing Trump’s claims vs a delay until either Dec 13 or Jan 10, and it’s hard to argue that the delay - to allow the full court to consider his cert petition is not necessary.
Assuming that the Supreme Court takes the case, we would see oral argument in April, decision by week of June 29 (last week the Court sits). If they deny cert, then his taxes are releases immediately.
The opinion in the NY case is here:
https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/6538570/Trump-v-Vance-20191104.pdf 1
DC Opinion is here: https://www.cadc.uscourts.gov/internet/opinions.nsf/20C16C3C5721030C85258490004DE33C/$file/19-5142-1810450.pdf