But, they matter now. Have their minds been changed or not?
My thesis is the ones who are voting for Biden now stayed home last time, and the ones who voted for Dump last time are staying home. And, writ large, that's my thesis across all demos.
When the "durr values voters durr" stuff all started in the 90s voting stopped being about policy and became completely tribal identity. It always was to some extent -- when the racists were Dixiecrats, and then switched to the GOP with Reagan and Bush Senior, that was strictly identity politics -- but the 90s made it explicit. That's when Hate Radio started talking about
demoncrats and their sheep actually believed it.
Liberals vote more on policy because we practice critical thinking but we are also heavily invested in voting as an identity statement. Nobody with a brain was going to make common cause with racists and misogynists, even
before they also became the knob slobberers of a malignant narcissist traitor.
The gulf will not be bridged until the cultural cancer of the Right is eradicated, and that can only come from time. Even its precursor, slaveholder ideology, was not killed by the war -- it lived through it and to a large extent still lives in the now overt racism of the Right. Education would kill it which is why conservative leaders carefully lead their flock away from education. So that just leaves time: as each older generation dies the next generation is a
little less toxic and stupid. Hence, over time, conservatism recedes, although obviously the rest of us progress so the distance is always the same.