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Russian Invasion of Ukraine

"You don't need millions of soldiers to overthrow Putin. A couple of tens of thousand motivated fighters are quite enough." Caesar, commander of the Freedom of Russia Legion, has written an article on his conclusions from Prigozhin's rebellion:

Full translation:

A new turmoil is coming, or conclusions from the rebellion of Yevgeny Prigozhin:


​
The rebellion of the owner of Wagner PMC Yevgeny Prigozhin against the regime of the maniac Putin showed that his Russia is not so different from a banana republic.

​
The institutions are not well-founded, the president is not in control of the situation, and the actual power is in the hands of the leaders of the gangs.​
From what is happening, I have drawn a number of conclusions . They are important not only for Russia, but for the whole world. The stakes are extremely high, and the current situation is without precedent.​

  • First. Chaos in Russia paralyzed the state in less than a day. The Russian army and power structures de facto ceased to exist as a single organism, and did not put up any resistance. Putin's power and the fate of the nuclear arsenal hung in the balance. Prigozhin retreated, but there is a possibility that a nuclear weapon fell into his hands. The situation can repeat itself at any moment. Then all treaties and deals on the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons will lose their meaning, and the threat of their use will become absolutely real.

  • Second. Fight not by number, but by skill. Millions of soldiers and hundreds of thousands of tanks are not needed to overthrow Putin. A couple of tens of thousands of well-trained and motivated fighters are quite enough. As Prigozhin's voyage showed, there is not even a hint of a security system in Russia itself, and its law enforcement agencies are only capable of dispersing demonstrations. The almighty Major Smirnov is just a hero from jokes, like Vovochka, Chapaev or Lieutenant Rzhevsky. Rostov-on-Don took control of several thousand. Where were the FSB, the police, the National Guard and the garrison service at that time? They withdrew themselves and tried not to notice what was happening.

  • Third. Putin is not only insane, he is incompetent. Previously, his power rested on the skilful moderation of clan conflicts and the timely elimination of potential opponents. This is in the past. The conflict was actually settled by Alexander Lukashenko, the Belarusian dictator, who until recently was considered a buffoon-potato. But even he turned out to be more effective than Putin: he settled the conflict, which Putin was incapable of. In fact, it was Lukashenka who saved Putin and helped him stay in power.

  • Fourth. Putin no longer has support on the street and among the security forces. The parade of sovereignties of national republics is only a matter of time. His local proteges relied on his authority and on his vertical. They are no more. So now it is untenable to talk about any influence of proteges on the regions entrusted to them. In such a situation, as has happened more than once in the history of Russia, local clans will tear a single country into small patches. The events from "Mad Max" will become a reality: where there is no state, there begins a war of all against all. The elite will run away, as they fled from Moscow, and the population will take a sip of grief in full.

  • Fifth. The Kadyrovites are a media project, not a military force. Until Lukashenka agreed with Prigozhin, Kadyrov was stubbornly silent, and his vaunted "Akhmat" made every effort to be late for Rostov-on-Don. Why engage in battle with Prigozhin's PMC, when to report to the centre it is enough just to shoot videos about armed bearded men in dirty cars?
Everyone in the world should finally understand that the security of the international community directly depends on the anti-Putin military coalition, including the Legion. Only our quick victory at the front and our successful intervention will be able to establish control over the nuclear arsenal, prevent it from falling into the hands of terrorists and ensure its non-use.

​
Putin's regime has lost not only its legitimacy, but also its influence, and is no longer able to provide at least some security guarantees to the world community. In less than a day, Prigozhin took control of two warehouses with nuclear weapons at once, and, I repeat, there are no guarantees that nuclear weapons did not fall into his hands.

​
Maximum assistance to Ukraine - military-technical, diplomatic or in the form of effective sanctions - is no longer just an act of solidarity with the victim of unjustified aggression, but direct steps to ensure your own security.

​
The Legion has drawn important conclusions and continues to prepare the liberation of Russia. soon. I invite all former and current military personnel, officers and other patriots to join us.

​
I have the honour!​
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Eh. The first time isn't exactly representative of what would happen if someone were to attempt it again. Two weeks ago I don't think any of us would have guessed that Wagner could have gotten that close to Moscow. Initiated a coup? Sure. But this was far, far more successful than I could have imagined.

now that there's been an attempt and we've seen the woeful response, I would expect a normal military would overhaul their break-glass-in-case-of-emergency plans. Who knows with how deep the roots of kleptocracy have penetrated Russian soil.

But I imagine a man with a staff of body doubles isn't going to get grazed by a coup and merely say, "Man, we dodged a bullet there!"

Edit: WHICH ISN'T TO SAY THERE WON'T BE ATTEMPTS IN THE FUTURE
 
Surovikin is (was?) besties with Prigozhin and has ties to Wagner. He publicly denounced the rebellion while it was ongoing, so either he got cold feet or it was a CYA move.
 
Or he had nothing to do with it and Ukrainian intelligence is working a (pretty brilliant) psyop to discredit the one capable general left in Russian command.
 
Kepler said:
Generals who support coups typically get the piano wire treatment first. They know things.
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I figured they would throw him in a hole and lose the hole.

I realize short term the Ukraine is dealing with stuff, but man they have to be loving this. In the last 4 days or so the head of Wagner and the Deputy Commander of the Russian Military Operations (who probably has some of the most actual military experience in the Russian Command) have been taken off the board and Ukraine had nothing to do with it. Not to mention Putin was made to look like a flaccid cuck by his own countrymen. Hell they showed how easy it would be to march on Moscow if you can get across the border!
 
Handyman said:
I figured they would throw him in a hole and lose the hole.

I realize short term the Ukraine is dealing with stuff, but man they have to be loving this. In the last 4 days or so the head of Wagner and the Deputy Commander of the Russian Military Operations (who probably has some of the most actual military experience in the Russian Command) have been taken off the board and Ukraine had nothing to do with it. Not to mention Putin was made to look like a flaccid cuck by his own countrymen. Hell they showed how easy it would be to march on Moscow if you can get across the border!
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I would still worry about Wagner and Prig trying to get back into MoscowDump's good graces by trying to take Kiev from Belarus.

But this is certainly something Ukraine can take to the West and say "Send lawyers, guns, and money, these guys are teetering."
 
ISW has this fun little story:

Russian sources speculated that Wagner’s rebellion is already having widespread impacts on the Russian command structure. A prominent Russian milblogger claimed that Wagner’s rebellion has prompted “large-scale purges” among the command cadre of the Russian armed forces and that the Russian MoD is currently undergoing a “crash test” for loyalty.[7] The milblogger claimed that the Russian Federal Protective Service (FSO) is conducting a review of the Russian military leadership as well as the individual unit commanders.[8] The milblogger claimed that Russian officials are using the MoD’s “indecisiveness” in suppressing the rebellion and “support for paramilitary companies (PMCs)” as pretexts to remove “objectionable” personnel from their positions. The milblogger notably claimed that Russian Airborne Forces (VDV) commander and rumored deputy theater commander Colonel General Mikhail Teplinsky assumed responsibilities as overall theater commander in Ukraine from Chief of the General Staff and current overall theater commander Army General Valery Gerasimov on an unspecified date, but likely after the rebellion. The milblogger emphasized that Gerasimov will retain his post as Chief of the General Staff but will no longer have responsibilities for Russian operations in Ukraine. Another Russian source claimed that an “atmosphere of suspicion has enveloped the General Staff” and that affiliates of Gerasimov are accused of indecision and failure while the affiliates of deputy commander of the joint grouping of forces in Ukraine Army General Sergei Surovikin are accused of complicity in the rebellion.[9] The sources publishing these speculations have largely been accurate in previous reporting on Russian command changes, although the ongoing disruption to human networks and the severe potential consequences related to Prigozhin’s armed rebellion may affect these sources’ accuracy. ISW cannot confirm any of these speculations about the command changes at this time, but it is evident that the armed rebellion is continuing to have substantial ramifications in the information space.
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Yo Dawg, I heard you like Stalin so I put some Stalin in your Stalin.
 
If Putin was half as smart as Glenn Greenwald and Edward Snowden think he is he would end the war. This isn't the 1860s changes like this mid war are never smart.

He isn't so...yeah. Ukraine needs to pull a Biden and just let the idiots eat their own. Shore up your defenses in case this is a some ridiculously stupid ploy and by the time the dust settles you can repel the conscripts in a much better position.
 
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