Russian Invasion of Ukraine

[dxmnkd316]

Yeah it feels like there is a lot more happening behind the scenes that we are not aware of yet. I don't know if what is actually happening helps or hurts Putin or others, but there's definitely some missing pieces.

And if I hear one more person say "oh this was all a ruse by Putin" I'm going to punch someone. You don't emasculate yourself militarily and then beg for help from a client state, emasculating yourself politically.

 

[Kepler]

In the beginning I wondered if it was a work between Putin and Prig to smoke out the folks who would jump into a coup. But the aftertaste for Putin is so bad I can't believe that was The Plan.

 

[dxmnkd316]

In the beginning I wondered if it was a work between Putin and Prig to smoke out the folks who would jump into a coup. But the aftertaste for Putin is so bad I can't believe that was The Plan.

Putin isn't a mastermind but he's not a complete idiot. There's no way this was a prearranged fake.

Everything leading up to this made sense.
the coup itself made sense.

the backing down made so very little sense I haven't been able to square it in my mind without someone winding up dead before the announcement or prigozhin is so stupid he doesn't understand he signed his own death warrant. That's the only possible way this makes sense.

it couldn't have been the FSB rounded up Prig's family, right? He would have had to have known before crossing the rubicon* that everything he loved would die. So I just can't imagine that would have been the case. Especially for a guy who has no problem with crimes against humanity.

I don't think Putin would have put a bullet in Shoigu's head. Which is probably the only thing that would have sent Prig packing from the muskie doorstep.

Either way, I hope prig enjoys his last several days on earth.

*hey, cool, I got to use this in a 100% appropriate scenario. I like that.

 

[Handyman]

In the beginning I wondered if it was a work between Putin and Prig to smoke out the folks who would jump into a coup. But the aftertaste for Putin is so bad I can't believe that was The Plan.

If it was, he is truly dumber than Trump. You don't smoke out a coup by having Moscow on lockdown because mercenaries are a short roadtrip away (roughly the distance from my house to Duluth) and let them take control of a city with a major command post. That would be like cutting off your own dick as a child to avoid the chance of being Homosexual.

And I don't think there is much going on behind the scenes, I think it is pretty straight forward. (and idiotic) I think Prigozhin wants more power and autonomy. I think he hates the Russian Military Establishment and he also thinks that a large portion of the boots on the ground agree with him (or at least partially do) and that a lot of citizens do to. I think he wanted to prove a point and figured if he made a play there was a good chance others would join and he could basically hold the Kremlin hostage (not figuratively but just by getting them to lock down and hear his demands) oust the morons in charge and take control of a war that badly needs new leadership. He figured his video telling the "truth" would be enough to rally more support and while Rostov let him in without incident I think he realized pretty quickly that no one was really going to revolt against Putin just to follow him. That is why he took an Amnesty deal. He was pot committed at that point and was likely going to die one way or another the second he and his men got anywhere near Moscow. Better to live in exile and fight another day. My guess is he is looking for places he can go outside of Belarus that will be safer...just not sure where that would be. He is not a sympathetic figure so unless he plans to full on defect he can't stay in the West and none of the autocrats are going to back him over Putin unless they want to join the War.

On the Russian side they got completely blindsided by all of this and completely exposed as not secure at all. I don't know if they actually attacked Wagner or not but either way the second Prigozhin put out that video the die was cast. The problem was they had no idea what to do or how to stop him. The oligarchs are not going to stick around and Putin seems to always be way too late making public addresses about this stuff. State TV was at first completely ignoring it (just like in the 90s during that revolt when they showed Swan Lake) and the Putin lovers in the West were in total spin mode. (the responses to the videos of Wagner in Rostov were classic cult BS reminiscent of Greenwald and Snowden after their guarantee Russia would not invade Ukraine were proven wrong) The second the tanks rolled into Rostov with Moscow only 120 miles or so away they locked down the Kremlin and quickly realized Amnesty was the only way out. If they attack Rostov public opinion tanks fast (you are attacking a Russian town!) and Prigozhin and his men become heroes/martyrs. What started as a 25k person revolution will likely explode into civil war. Better to put him in exile in a friendly state where you can kill him in 2 weeks and no one likely reacts. Lukashenko is not going to protect Prigozhin, because he and Putin are way too close and he won't risk open rebellion in his own country. He needs Russia as his guarantee.

I really don't think it is much more than that. I think it was all a bunch of miscalculations by people making moves that were way beyond their abilities. Prigozhin thought he was a folk hero that could be the face of the revolution. Problem is he is no Lenin. He is a mercenary in charge of criminals and murderers and everyone knows it. They needed a true leader, someone who could rally public opinion and get the people behind him without that they are an army in open revolt with no support. Prigozhin thought he was Caesar...oops. Putin is surrounded by sycophants and morons none of whom could see how easy it would be to put Moscow in danger and they all panicked. They knew even if they ultimately would defeat Wagner there would be riots in the streets because now the populace knows they are not secure. Better to end it and kill him later. Let State TV spin it, let the West move on to whatever new story about rich people doing stupid stuff takes over the narrative and fight on. To them that is the best of all bad options. Problem is the same morons are in charge so...

Meanwhile Ukraine is sitting back and just laughing. Not only is this strengthening their position but these things are never isolated. Not to mention, he just saw on live TV how easy it is to actually put pressure on The Kremlin and how they will react if he does. IF the Ukrainians ever set foot on Russian soil Moscow might fold worse than France.

 

[Handyman]

Putin isn't a mastermind but he's not a complete idiot. There's no way this was a prearranged fake.

Everything leading up to this made sense.
the coup itself made sense.

the backing down made so very little sense I haven't been able to square it in my mind without someone winding up dead before the announcement or prigozhin is so stupid he doesn't understand he signed his own death warrant. That's the only possible way this makes sense.

it couldn't have been the FSB rounded up Prig's family, right? He would have had to have known before crossing the rubicon* that everything he loved would die. So I just can't imagine that would have been the case. Especially for a guy who has no problem with crimes against humanity.

I don't think Putin would have put a bullet in Shoigu's head. Which is probably the only thing that would have sent Prig packing from the muskie doorstep.

Either way, I hope prig enjoys his last several days on earth.

*hey, cool, I got to use this in a 100% appropriate scenario. I like that.

You are overthinking it. These are too mad men in a standoff. Prigozhin knew he was dead the second he, was you so perfectly put it, crossed the Rubicon because no one joined him. (Julius was a popular war hero in Rome hence why his coup worked) Better to "live" in exile than to die a traitor. Putin knew if he killed him he martyrs him and likely guarantees that popular uprising continues and likely builds. Better to get him off the board and kill him in exile when everyone has forgotten about all of this.

There is no higher game to any of this, they are just too strongheaded people in way over their skis (which is what a few CIA people said when this ended) and were so afraid of screwing it up they took the first out they could think of. As someone who taught Negotiations at my school I have seen this stuff a lot, it is exactly the wrong way to do it but it is the easiest way to tell the people making the decisions are scared and in over their heads.

 

[aparch]

I've seen similar assessments to your Handy on Twitter from friends and follows who are from Eastern Bloc countries. This was a couple of hot heads with no plan just "Leeroy Jenkin!"-ing their first response, and they found an out quickly.


An interesting parallel also drawn was to Gorbachev in 1991. Look for the Russian Federation to fall apart by the end of the year.

 

[Kepler]

I don't get the settlement from Putin's POV. This demonstrates you can threaten a coup and cash out. To the sharks who think about challenging him that sends the signal that you can shoot for the king, miss, and live. To the sincere resistors who dream of deposing the regime and restoring democracy, it sends the signal that the Kremlin is undefended and next time just don't stop.

 

[Kepler]

Look for the Russian Federation to fall apart by the end of the year.

Certainly the "captive republics" might now feel like the can get away with secession.

 

[French Rage]

I haven't paid super-duper close attention, but was the coup doing that poorly that he had no choice but to bail? It seemed like a lot of the public was on their side, they took a couple of cities somewhat easily, and were making good progress towards Moscow. I know that things would get exponentially harder the closer you got to Moscow, but it was still doing better out of the gate then I would have ever assumed. I can see bailing in a month or even a week, but in under a day? Why even do it in the first place?

 

[Bronco]

I don't get the settlement from Putin's POV. This demonstrates you can threaten a coup and cash out. To the sharks who think about challenging him that sends the signal that you can shoot for the king, miss, and live. To the sincere resistors who dream of deposing the regime and restoring democracy, it sends the signal that the Kremlin is undefended and next time just don't stop.

Minor quibble, Russia has never had a democracy.

Edit: to keep it all in one post

Also, I don't see the Russian Federation falling apart like the USSR. Putin might fall, but I don't see a lack of national pride from the Russian people. They're just angry at the people in charge of this failing war.

 

[dxmnkd316]

I haven't paid super-duper close attention, but was the coup doing that poorly that he had no choice but to bail? It seemed like a lot of the public was on their side, they took a couple of cities somewhat easily, and were making good progress towards Moscow. I know that things would get exponentially harder the closer you got to Moscow, but it was still doing better out of the gate than I would have ever assumed. I can see bailing in a month or even a week, but in under a day? Why even do it in the first place?

Side story: my cousin used to play StarCraft with his work buddies back in the day. He had a coworker that was excellent at the Zerg rush. If he hadn't beaten you within 10-15 minutes, he forfeited.

I know they're not comparable, but I was reminded of that as I watched this unfold.

 

[MichVandal]

Minor quibble, Russia has never had a democracy.

Edit: to keep it all in one post

Also, I don't see the Russian Federation falling apart like the USSR. Putin might fall, but I don't see a lack of national pride from the Russian people. They're just angry at the people in charge of this failing war.

I agree. Doesn't see that likely that the russian federation falls. But the former USSR areas that were forced back in- I can see them going back out.

This is so confusing, that's about as far as I would speculate.

 

[Handyman]

I've seen similar assessments to your Handy on Twitter from friends and follows who are from Eastern Bloc countries. This was a couple of hot heads with no plan just "Leeroy Jenkin!"-ing their first response, and they found an out quickly.


An interesting parallel also drawn was to Gorbachev in 1991. Look for the Russian Federation to fall apart by the end of the year.

Damnit I can't believe I didn't use a Leroy Jenkins comparison! It's a chefs kiss for this debacle!

 

[Handyman]

I don't get the settlement from Putin's POV. This demonstrates you can threaten a coup and cash out. To the sharks who think about challenging him that sends the signal that you can shoot for the king, miss, and live. To the sincere resistors who dream of deposing the regime and restoring democracy, it sends the signal that the Kremlin is undefended and next time just don't stop.

Easy...he is a puzzy. What do you always say about bullies?

 

[Handyman]

I haven't paid super-duper close attention, but was the coup doing that poorly that he had no choice but to bail? It seemed like a lot of the public was on their side, they took a couple of cities somewhat easily, and were making good progress towards Moscow. I know that things would get exponentially harder the closer you got to Moscow, but it was still doing better out of the gate then I would have ever assumed. I can see bailing in a month or even a week, but in under a day? Why even do it in the first place?

25k troops isn't enough if your goal is Moscow. He was hoping to split off some of tbe "regular" troops but it never happened. A siege would have collapsed as soon as The Kremlin called in some troops and then Prigozhin hangs in Red Square as do his mercenaries.

 

[MichVandal]

This whole episode reminds me very much of Roseanne Roseannadanna.

Although now it's probably time to feel for russians, as some of the speculation of the future is likely to be purges. Sadly, it makes sense.

 

[Handyman]

Oh yeah Putin will not handle this well...

 

[Kepler]

Bad day for Bonzo.

 

[Kepler]

ISW on the coup:

Russian sources speculated on the specifics of the deal mediated by Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko to end the Wagner Group’s June 23-24 armed rebellion, including the possible involvement of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s chief of staff. Russian opposition outlet Meduza, citing unnamed internal Kremlin sources, reported that Prigozhin initially tried to get in touch with the Russian Presidential Administration midday June 24 as Wagner fighters moved north from Rostov-on-Don towards Moscow, but that Putin refused to speak with Prigozhin.[1] Meduza noted that, once Prigozhin observed the lack of widespread military support for Wagner’s actions and changed his mind on Wagner’s prospects, the Kremlin turned to negotiations involving Lukashenko, Chief of Staff of the Russian Presidential Office Anton Vaino, and Russian Ambassador to Belarus Boris Gryzlov. Vaino and Gryzlov’s possible involvement was not reported on June 24. A prominent Kremlin-affiliated milblogger also questioned whether the deal will hold Wagner or Prigozhin accountable in any way for the deaths of at least 13 Russian airman on June 24.[2] Prigozhin’s whereabouts cannot be verified beyond his departure from Rostov-on-Don late on June 24. Russian outlet RTVI claimed that Prigozhin’s press service told RTVI that Prigozhin “sends his regards” and will answer all questions “when he is on normal communication,” and a prominent Wagner-affiliated Telegram channel shared an AI-generated image of Prigozhin holding a finger to his lips and stating “plans love silence,” a copy of the phrase commonly used in Ukraine about operational security.[3] As ISW noted on June 24, the specifics of the deal are still unclear in the open source beyond speculation and rumor. The fallout of Wagner’s armed rebellion has not yet concluded, and it remains to be seen how the deal will be implemented, if all involved parties will comply fully, how the Kremlin and Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) intend to do with Wagner personnel - and if Wagner fighters will cooperate, regardless of Prigozhin’s wishes.

The implications of the Lukashenko-Prigozhin deal for the leadership of the Russian MoD also remain ambiguous. Some Russian sources, including internal Kremlin sources cited by Meduza, suggested that the Kremlin may be considering changes to MoD leadership as part of the deal.[4] Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov have not been seen or heard from since before Prigozhin announced the beginning of the armed rebellion on June 23. Some Russian sources suggested that Alexei Dyumin, the current governor of Tula Oblast, former security officer to Putin, and former head of Russia’s Special Operations Forces, may replace Shoigu as the Defense Minister, although ISW cannot confirm these speculations.[5] Any changes to the MoD leadership would notably represent a significant victory for Prigozhin, who justified his armed rebellion by directly accusing Shoigu and Gerasimov of the deaths of tens of thousands of Russian soldiers in Ukraine.[6]

Wagner forces continued to withdraw from positions in Rostov and on the road to Moscow to their bases on June 25, and the Kremlin’s intended structure for leveraging Wagner fighters remains unclear. Geolocated footage published on June 25 shows armed Wagner forces driving south away from Moscow near Voronezh City.[7] Footage published on June 25 purportedly shows Wagner forces returning to training camps in southern Russia.[8] The fact that Wagner is returning to their training camps with military equipment indicates that the Kremlin intends to maintain at least certain elements of Wagner’s manpower rather than seek to immediately demobilize them, although the future of Wagner’s command and organizational structure are unclear. Russian State Duma Defense Committee Head Andrei Kartapolov announced on June 25 that the State Duma is working on a law that would regulate private military companies (PMCs) but emphasized that it is not necessary to ban the Wagner Group as it is “the most combat-ready unit in Russia.”[9] Kartapolov further noted that the future of the Wagner Group is undetermined and emphasized that the personnel of the Wagner Group in Rostov-on-Don were “following orders of their command” and “did nothing reprehensible.”[10] Kartapolov’s efforts to absolve Wagner personnel of responsibility for taking part in an armed rebellion and separate them from Prigozhin may indicate the Russian government’s desire to continue to use Wagner personnel in some capacity, and as ISW assessed on June 24, the Russian leadership could redeploy Wagner to Ukraine or instead commit them to international missions. Russian state-affiliated news outlets reported on June 24 that the Russian Federal Service for Supervision of Communications, Information Technology and Mass Media (Rozkomnadzor) blocked Prigozhin’s official press service on Russian social media site VKontakte, indicating the Kremlin’s efforts to restrict Prigozhin’s organizational actions.[11]

Further details emerged on the composition of the Wagner units approaching Moscow on June 24, indicating Prigozhin would likely have struggled in an active conflict in Moscow without additional support. Russian sources claimed on June 25 that the first Wagner column that began moving towards Moscow on June 24 consisted of 350 pieces of equipment, including nine tanks, four Tigr infantry fighting vehicles, a Grad MLRS system, and a howitzer.[12] Russian sources claimed that the three other Wagner columns that moved towards Moscow had 375, 100, and 212 pieces of equipment respectively, the majority of which were non-armored trucks, cars, and buses.[13] Russian milbloggers claimed on June 24 that the columns moving towards Moscow were comprised of 4,000 personnel with 40 to 50 pieces of equipment, including MRAPs, T-90M main battle tanks, BMP infantry fighting vehicles, Pantsir air defense systems, and Grad MLRS systems.[14] CNN reported on June 24 that US and Western intelligence officials observed Wagner amassing equipment and ammunition for the rebellion for several weeks, indicating that the columns likely comprised Wagner‘s greatest available strength.[15] ISW cannot confirm the exact composition of the Wagner columns at this time, although current reporting suggests that Prigozhin’s force would have struggled to fully occupy Moscow or conduct prolonged engagements with elements of the Russian Armed Forces, if they deployed. ISW previously assessed that Prigozhin likely sought and failed to win military support for his rebellion, and Wagner’s move on Moscow was likely predicated on the assumption that military support would strengthen the rebellion’s forces and capabilities.[16] Prigozhin may have become more amenable to the alleged negotiations with Lukashenko as these insufficient forces drew nearer to Moscow and that time was running out to garner the necessary military support for a potential armed conflict with the MoD.

The Russian ultranationalist information space fractured on June 25 between those who want to move past the rebellion and those demanding solutions to the internal security flaws that the rebellion had exposed. A Wagner-affiliatedmilblogger praised all of the parties for bringing the rebellion to an end and avoiding bloodshed, ignoring the fact that Wagner forces killed at least 13 Russian pilots and airmen during the rebellion.[17] Other Russian sources continued to characterize the rebellion as solely Prigozhin’s doing and called on Russian authorities to show clemency towards the Wagner fighters who have fought for Russian interests in Ukraine.[18] A Russian milblogger specifically accused Moscow Oblast officials and the MoD of failing to stop the Wagner advance towards Moscow.[19] The milblogger questioned how the MoD would be able to respond to external incursions if it was unable to stop Wagner’s movement towards Moscow.[20] A former Russian occupation official criticized how the internal Russian structures were slow in publicly addressing the rebellion.[21] Several other Russian milbloggers criticized the Russian elites for failing to publicly support Putin and for fleeing Russia.[22] Another Russian ultranationalist bemoaned that Prigozhin’s rebellion indicated that Russia is one step closer to its final and irrevocable death.[23] A prominent milblogger asked how Russian authorities will punish those involved in the deaths of Russian servicemen, indicating that clemency for the Wagner fighters that participated in the rebellion may become a longstanding grievance for elements of the Russian military and the ultranationalist community.[24]

The ultranationalist Angry Patriots Club held a pre-scheduled event in Moscow on June 25 and espoused longstanding criticisms against Putin and the Russian military leadership, suggesting that the Kremlin will not immediately begin cracking down on antagonistic ultranationalist groups in the aftermath of Prigozhin’s rebellion.[25]The Angry Patriots Club is a pro-war social movement that aims to correct perceived issues in the war-effort in Ukraine so that Russian forces can achieve victory, and the club’s members have used that mission to launch routine scathing criticisms of the MoD, the Kremlin, and Putin himself.[26] The Angry Patriots Club has also notably called for “revolution” if the Kremlin freezes the war in Ukraine or pursues negotiations.[27] Former Russian officer and ardent nationalist Igor Girkin spoke at the livestreamed event in Moscow and delivered a set of longstanding theses on what Russia needs to do to win the war in Ukraine.[28] Girkin publicly reiterated that Putin needs to legally transfer certain presidential authorities to other parties if Putin is unwilling to assume control over the war in Ukraine as the supreme Commander-in-Chief.[29] The Angry Patriots Club had promoted the event for several weeks, and Russian officials were likely aware of it to some extent.[30] If the Kremlin intends to use Prigozhin’s rebellion as pretext to start immediately suppressing antagonistic ultranationalists, then this event would have likely been a prime candidate to start that effort. The Kremlin likely risks Prigozhin’s armed rebellion expanding the window of acceptable anti-Kremlin criticism, particularly if the Kremlin does not intend to retaliate further against Prigozhin. The Kremlin’s continued careful response to the armed rebellion will likely prompt other Russian nationalists to test Russian official reactions to more explicitly critical rhetoric.

 

[Russell Jaslow]

This whole episode reminds me very much of Roseanne Roseannadanna.

This is perfect.