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Russian Invasion of Ukraine

RaceBoarder said:
So did Russia's check bounce with the mercenaries? I don't get why mercenaries care here.
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If you believe the guy leading all of this it is because the generals are morons who are so stupid they are killing their own soldiers. They would ignore that except they are also being killed.
 
RaceBoarder said:
So did Russia's check bounce with the mercenaries? I don't get why mercenaries care here.
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It appears the mercenaries care about their death count, unlike the regular Russian military which is much more tolerate of high body counts.

Edit: But I'm sure the real reason is power. It is always power.
 
Kinzinger is on CNN and he has a very solid point. Even if this goes nowhere as a coup Wagner is who protects Russian interests around the world and if they are now against the Kremlin Russia is going to have some serious issues. This could lead to serious chaos.

The Kremlin is denying this yet they are cornering off the Kremlin.

And the generals are begging the Wagner soldiers not to be part of a rebellion.

The Ruble is dropping in value and Russian stocks are way down.
 
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MichVandal said:
Well, now they are covering it. Both of them. This is getting crazy.

But this doesn't seem to be an actual improvement for russia or the world- just more conflict. Maybe it will let Ukraine get their territory back, though.

This is really nuts.
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Oh I think in the long run it is. Wagner will never be in control and even if people are correct and this is more about the Ministry of Defense and not Putin, there is going to be severe blowback for this. As most experts are saying, the Russian People for the first time are hearing from someone fighting for Russia that all of this is BS, the leaders are morons and people are dying because of a lie. Half the Russian military doesn't want to fight this war and now their families (and they) are having all their trepidations validated.

Now, if this ends fast maybe nothing comes of it but not that isn't likely. The war has already dragged on too long. If Putin can't stop the narrative and fast he will likely lose complete control. He might fight off this coup attempt but the Russian people only really abide by any government as long as they feel safe. A war going badly and Moscow so afraid of an attack from their own ranks they are securing the friggin Kremlin is not a good thing. This is starting to resemble the downfall of the Communist Regime in the 1990s.

We will see, the problem with Russia is the same problem as China...neither side can be believed and we are so far away from it that it is hard to know what to believe.
 
Handyman said:
Oh I think in the long run it is. Wagner will never be in control and even if people are correct and this is more about the Ministry of Defense and not Putin, there is going to be severe blowback for this. As most experts are saying, the Russian People for the first time are hearing from someone fighting for Russia that all of this is BS, the leaders are morons and people are dying because of a lie. Half the Russian military doesn't want to fight this war and now their families (and they) are having all their trepidations validated.

Now, if this ends fast maybe nothing comes of it but not that isn't likely. The war has already dragged on too long. If Putin can't stop the narrative and fast he will likely lose complete control. He might fight off this coup attempt but the Russian people only really abide by any government as long as they feel safe. A war going badly and Moscow so afraid of an attack from their own ranks they are securing the friggin Kremlin is not a good thing. This is starting to resemble the downfall of the Communist Regime in the 1990s.

We will see, the problem with Russia is the same problem as China...neither side can be believed and we are so far away from it that it is hard to know what to believe.
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What's really odd about this whole thing is that Wagner was such a prominent part of the recent fighting. And now Pergozin is saying none of that was needed- they should have negotiated before invading??? How did that turn so fast?
 
MichVandal said:
What's really odd about this whole thing is that Wagner was such a prominent part of the recent fighting. And now Pergozin is saying none of that was needed- they should have negotiated before invading??? How did that turn so fast?
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Because he claims his troops got bombed by the Russian military.
 
MichVandal said:
What's really odd about this whole thing is that Wagner was such a prominent part of the recent fighting. And now Pergozin is saying none of that was needed- they should have negotiated before invading??? How did that turn so fast?
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If he is to be believed (and he isn't reliable obviously) yesterday the Russian Military attacked a Wagner Camp. He has been verbally attacking the military leadership for months and blaming them for the war going badly, which of course is true. Russia was not ready for this war, the generals did not have a plan in any way they just assumed they would walk in like Hitler in Czechoslovakia, and when they were met with resistance they crumbled. Putin let him get away with it because they are friends...

BTW unofficial reports and videos that Wagner has taken Rostov region where the Southern Military Defense Headquarters. Tough to tell if it is true or not but it is all over Twitter.

Ukraine is loving this...the Ukraine Defense Force even tweeted they are watching!
 
MichVandal said:
What's really odd about this whole thing is that Wagner was such a prominent part of the recent fighting. And now Pergozin is saying none of that was needed- they should have negotiated before invading??? How did that turn so fast?
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ISW does an excellent job breaking this situation down. This fight between Prigozhin and Shoigu/Geramisov has been simmering for months. I didn’t think Prigozhin would attempt an insurrection with such little (current) support from the Russian military structure though. Hell, even Wagner-affiliated Russian general Surovikin told them all to stand down. Prigozhin must have thought this route was better than being a loudmouth Kremlin critic without an army.
 
psych said:
ISW does an excellent job breaking this situation down. This fight between Prigozhin and Shoigu/Geramisov has been simmering for months. I didn’t think Prigozhin would attempt an insurrection with such little (current) support from the Russian military structure though. Hell, even Wagner-affiliated Russian general Surovikin told them all to stand down. Prigozhin must have thought this route was better than being a loudmouth Kremlin critic without an army.
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Richard Engel on NBC (and a few others either former military or former Intelligence) I think broke it down best...basically said that Wagner was making Russian Military look bad and they were often the soldiers thrown into the battle first so the death tolls were rather high. Prigozhin believes most of the Military Leaders are just in it for "stars on their uniform" and have been lying to Putin. Wagner has by some estimates 25k soldiers and have access to millions of dollars because of their ability to extract gold and blood diamonds from The Central African Republic so they have resources. He basically had to decide whether his men were better off dying for leaders who are using them as cannon fodder or go to the Kremlin and force a change in leadership.

Remember he claims this is not a coup. From all accounts he is not trying to overthrow Putin, he is overthrowing the Defense Ministry.

FWIW Wagner is saying they control the Southern Military Headquarters and there is videos of what appear to not be Russian Troops on the streets in Rostov.
 
https://twitter.com/brianschatz/stat...36251541258240

Probably a good time to check in on the tech bros for some foreign policy analysis.
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A lot of the tech bros are Putin lovers (you know the type, they think Ukraine should quit and there is all sorts of false flags) and lets say most are much quieter today than yesterday! They are still getting roasted though!

edit: Pitchbot does it again! https://twitter.com/DougJBalloon/status/1672442045359595521

We wanted to understand what's going on in Russia. So we talked to three cryptocurrency traders at a Tesla charging station in Menlo Park.
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https://twitter.com/DougJBalloon/status/1672446006611329024

Today is the day that Vladimir Putin truly became president of Russia.
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