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Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Russell Jaslow said:
Apparently from some witnesses, the plane was missing a wing before it crashed. Like wings just fall off planes randomly... :-)
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Kepler said:
Lots of conflicting reports. My favorite rumor is they just flat out took him out with a SAM.

If you start a coup, don't stop.
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The video of that is pretty compelling.

I wouldn't normally link Malcolm nance but here's the video

https://twitter. com/malcolmnance/status/1694413034150670582?s=46&t=JvQUOoGvc38oHKnK9wQOBQ
 
The math of the Ukrainian advance.

Intelligence analysts may look at the map of Southern Ukraine and see distances; military planners will apply the military math and see something very different. They know that to crush the Russian army and strangle the troops in frontline fortifications, they don’t need to advance 50 miles. 10 miles will do it.

Why? Because although it would be great if Ukrainian troops broke through to the shores of the Sea of Azov, they do not have to. Instead, they can achieve a significant operational outcome by bringing Russia’s ground line of communication (GLOC) under their guns.

On or around August 22, Ukraine’s troops liberated the village of Robotyne, some 90km (around 55 miles) from the Sea of Azov, a major accomplishment given the enormous efforts of the Russian invaders to fortify and hold it.

From here, the Ukrainians need to advance by a further 10–15 km (7–10 miles), in order to range their guns on Russia’s east-west transport routes that are critical to the ability of its army and armed forces to fight. If Ukraine can interdict these road and rail links, it’s very hard to see how the Russian army can continue to fight.

This will not be easy, but it’s reasonable to think it will happen. This will be achieved using its indirect capability — first the M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) and the M270 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS), whose reach is about 80km-90km, and later its 155 mm artillery with a range of over 40km. These are hugely more capable than Ukraine’s pre-war 152mm Soviet-style artillery that have a range of only 17–20 km.

Russia’s GLOC does not run along the sands of the Azov Sea’s shores but rather inland and, therefore, closer to Ukraine’s advances. The M14 highway running east-west, and largely parallel to the coastline, is about 7km–10km from the shore. Nearby is the broader logistics corridor where the Russians place supply and ammunition dumps, fuel storage, higher-echelon command posts, reserve units, and logistic railheads.

This logistics corridor becomes increasingly narrow for every inch the Ukrainians liberate. Once the Russian assets mentioned above are within Ukrainian MLRS reach, the Russian senior leadership will have an almost impossible choice to make — will they be able to sustain operations west of Melitopol when every aspect of their fighting effort is under fire?

As winter approaches, the logistic situation west of Melitopol is likely to get worse and worse. As occurred on the western bank of the River Dnieper last fall, even Vladimir Putin will be forced to acknowledge reality – he can fight on and risk mass troop surrenders, or pull back. Either way, the so-called land bridge from Russia to Crimea will be snapped.

So Russian commanders will not think they have 90km of space to play with behind their backs. Their only consolation is that the Ukrainians can’t place MLRS artillery at the forward edge of the battle area; these units are extremely valuable and must be used from safer positions 10km–15km behind the frontline.
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I nominate Georgia, Ukraine, Turkey, Switzerland, Bosnia, and Georgia.

And Novgorad.

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And the free city of Koenigsberg.

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ISW reports on the "breakthrough"-y advance.

Ukrainian forces have made further tactically significant gains in western Zaporizhia Oblast, and several Ukrainian and Russian sources reported that Ukrainian forces are advancing through what Ukrainian and US sources suggested may be the most challenging series of prepared Russian defensive positions. Geolocated footage published on August 25 indicates that Ukrainian forces advanced 1.5km southward northeast of Novoprokopivka (13km south of Orikhiv).[1] US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley stated on August 25 that Ukrainian forces are currently attacking through the main set of Russian defensive preparations along the axis of Ukrainian advance.[2] Reuters reported on August 26 that a Ukrainian commander fighting in southern Ukraine stated that Ukrainian forces believe they have broken through the most difficult line of Russian defenses in the area and will now be able to advance more quickly.[3] The Ukrainian commander reportedly stated that Ukrainian forces have entered areas where they encountered only Russian ”logistics groups" and that he expects that further Ukrainian breakthroughs in these areas will be easier.[4] A Russian milblogger claimed on August 25 that Ukrainian forces were attacking in the direction of rear defensive lines near Verbove (18km southwest of Orikhiv), suggesting that Ukrainian forces may be near tactical rear areas within the series of Russian defensive positions that they are currently penetrating - though these reports should not be misinterpreted to indicate Ukrainian forces have entered Russian rear areas at the operational level.
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Also, the Pope put his pantofola lisciap in it:

The Vatican on Tuesday sought to calm the uproar that followed a Pope Francis video conference with Russian Catholic youths, insisting he never intended to encourage or condone modern-day Russian aggression in Ukraine.

The pope had told youngsters in off-the-cuff remarks to "never forget your inheritance. You are the heirs of the great Russia. The great Russia of the saints, of the kings, of the great Russia of Peter the Great, or Catherine II."

The comments prompted sharp criticism from Sviatoslav Shevchuk, Ukraine's Greek Catholic leader. He said the references to Russia's imperial leaders "refer to the worst example of Russian imperialism and extreme nationalism."
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For the first time, the Robotnye breakthrough us showing up on the interactive maps.

This is the first non-trivial adjustment of positions I remember for at least 6 months.
 
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Bunch of drones hit Russian airport, some folks are saying they came from Estonia. That might escalate it if true?
 
The call is coming from inside the house.

The drone attack on an airbase in the Russian city of Pskov on Tuesday was launched from inside Russia, Ukraine's military intelligence chief has said.

Kyrylo Budanov said two Ilyushin cargo planes were destroyed and two damaged. Russia says four were damaged.

Mr Budanov did not say whether the attack was carried out by Ukrainian or Russian operatives.

Ukraine's drone attacks on Russia occur almost daily. It had already admitted the Pskov attack.

But Mr Budanov's comments appear to end speculation that it was caused by a long-range weapon.

On Thursday President Volodymyr Zelensky said that a Ukrainian-made weapon had hit a target at a distance of 700km. Pskov is nearly 700km (434 miles) from the Ukrainian border.

"We are working from the territory of Russia," Mr Budanov told the War Zone website on Thursday, without saying what type or quantity of drones were used.

He said the drones targeted the tops of the aircraft - the location of the fuel tanks and a critical section of the wing spar.
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BTW, this is something to keep in mind the next time Uncle Sam decides to "liberate" somebody. Considering my house is within a few miles of the mostly densely packed IC corridor in the world, I'd kind of appreciate it if we didn't do that, m'kay?

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