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RPI 2011-12 season

Re: RPI 2011-12 season

Stat Man said:
With 6 games to go and a tie with Brown in the standings, RPI and Brown both have the following opponents in common,
Cornell, Colgate, Dartmouth and Havard. Brown also plays Clarkson and SLU while RPI has Princeton and Qpac.

RPI has to get one more point than Brown over these next 6 games in order to secure the last playoff spot.

Brown is 0-5-1 vs their remaining opponents this year with a 1-1 tie vs Colgate and has 4 gf and 25 GA (1en).

RPI is 1-4-1 vs their remaining opponents and has 10 GF with 16 GA (2(en)).

RPI and Brown each have 2 home games left. Brown vs Colgate and Cornell and RPI vs Harvard and Dartmouth.

I would have to say that 8th spot is still a real possibility.
Click to expand...

Colgate still has a legitamate chance at 8th place as well with games left against, Brown, Yale, Union, RPI, Clarkson and SLU

Currently with 7 points if they can win 4 of their last 6 they could end up with 15 Points and finish ahead of both Brown and RPI.

So their destany is still in their hands. This weekends matchup with RPI should basically eliminate one of the teams unless it ends in a tie. If Colgate were to tie both RPI and Brown and win vs Union and Yale you can still have the possibility of three teams tied with 13 points in eigth spot.
 
Re: RPI 2011-12 season

Stat Man said:
Colgate still has a legitamate chance at 8th place as well with games left against, Brown, Yale, Union, RPI, Clarkson and SLU

Currently with 7 points if they can win 4 of their last 6 they could end up with 15 Points and finish ahead of both Brown and RPI.

So their destany is still in their hands. This weekends matchup with RPI should basically eliminate one of the teams unless it ends in a tie. If Colgate were to tie both RPI and Brown and win vs Union and Yale you can still have the possibility of three teams tied with 13 points in eigth spot.
Click to expand...

If you assume for arguments sake that:
1 - None of RPI/Colgate/Brown will steal any points from teams above them
........AND......
2 - Colgate sweeps both Union and Yale.

You then have RPI and Brown with 12 points, and Colgate with 11 with the the RPI/Colgate and Brown/Colgate game results to decide.

Scenarios are:

Brown wins over Colgate.....Brown is in irregardless of the Colgate/RPI result
RPI wins over Colgate.......RPI is in if Brown does NOT win over Colgate
Colgate wins both games....Colgate is in.

Combinations with ties can get complicated.

If Brown and Colgate tie, and Colgate beats RPI, Colgate is in
If Brown and Colgate tie, and Colgate and RPI tie, Colgate is in (RPI is out on HTH with Brown, Colgate wins over Brown on more wins)
If Brown and Colgate tie, and RPI beats Colgate, RPI is in


Brown has the toughest schedule left, so they are least likely to pick up points elsewhere.
Colgate has the easiest schedule left, BUT they do have to get to points to catch up. A slip up in any of those games could prove costly.
RPI does have an easier schedule than Brown, but they do NOT control their own destiny.

Not too long ago, I indicated, 16 points should be enough to make it in. It could be as low as 14, but doubt will be enough.

Should be a good race to the finish to earn the right to visit Ithaca. :eek:
 
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Re: RPI 2011-12 season

OnMAA said:
If you assume for arguments sake that:
1 - None of RPI/Colgate/Brown will steal any points from teams above them
........AND......
2 - Colgate sweeps both Union and Yale.

Scenarios are:

Combinations with ties can get complicated.

If Brown and Colgate tie, and Colgate and RPI tie, Colgate is in (RPI is out on HTH with Brown, Colgate wins over Brown on more wins)

Should be a good race to the finish to earn the right to visit Ithaca. :eek:
Click to expand...

Note quite sure you have this scenario correct. Yes Brown beats RPI on Head to Head but RPI also beats Colgate on head to head with a win and a tie while Colgate and Brown are tied. Since no clear winner can be determined from head to head the tiebreak would then go to the next level which i think is wins. Brown would have 4, Colgate and RPI 5 and RPI would have a winning record over Colgate.

Anyway both games ending in a Tie and no one getting any other points is a long shot for sure.
 
Re: RPI 2011-12 season

Stat Man said:
Note quite sure you have this scenario correct. Yes Brown beats RPI on Head to Head but RPI also beats Colgate on head to head with a win and a tie while Colgate and Brown are tied. Since no clear winner can be determined from head to head the tiebreak would then go to the next level which i think is wins. Brown would have 4, Colgate and RPI 5 and RPI would have a winning record over Colgate.
Click to expand...
Unfortunately, the tiebreaker is determined by total points earned in games against the other tied teams. Brown would have gone 1-0-3 for 5 points, RPI would have a 1-1-2 record for 4 points, and Colgate with an 0-1-3 record for 3 points. Brown would win the tiebreaker and earn the trip to Ithaca. (Then, the tiebreaker starts over with just RPI and Colgate, with RPI taking 9th place with a 1-0-1 record.)

Of course, that's only if the scenario plays out exactly as detailed as above, with Colgate sweeping Union and Yale, no team "stealing" points, and both the Colgate / Brown and Colgate / RPI games ending as ties. There are other ways that all three teams can end tied and they lead to changes in who wins the tiebreak.
 
Re: RPI 2011-12 season

Inching away from reality (where teams are unlikely to steal points from the upper echelon teams) and into the absurd (where Yale can finish with 14 points)...

--- Home Lock - 32+
Cornell 28 - 40 [1-6]
--- In - 24+
Harvard 23 - 35 [1-9]
CCT 22 - 34 [1-9]
DC 22 - 34 [1-9]
QU 22 - 34 [1-9]
SLU 20 - 32 [1-9]
PU 16 - 28 [2-11]
Brown 12 - 24 [3-12]
RPI 12 - 24 [3-12]
--- Home Eligible - 24
Colgate 7 - 19 [7-12]
UC 6 - 18 [7-12]
Yale 2 - 14 [8-12]
--- Out - 12+

Remaining League Schedules:
Code: 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
|          |   F 2/3  |   S 2/4  |  F 2/10 |  S 2/11 |  F 2/17  |  S 2/18  |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Cornell  |    RPI   |    UC    |  @Brown |  @Yale  |    CCT   |    SLU   |
| Harvard  |    QU    |    PU    |   @RPI  |   @UC   |   Brown  |   Yale   |
| CCT      |   Brown  |   Yale   |   @PU   |   @QU   | @Cornell | @Colgate |
| DC       |    PU    |    QU    |   @UC   |   @RPI  |   Yale   |   Brown  |
| QU       | @Harvard |    @DC   |   SLU   |   CCT   |    UC    |    RPI   |
| SLU      |   Yale   |   Brown  |   @QU   |   @PU   | @Colgate | @Cornell |
| PU       |    @DC   | @Harvard |   CCT   |   SLU   |    RPI   |    UC    |
| Brown    |   @CCT   |   @SLU   | Cornell | Colgate | @Harvard |    @DC   |
| RPI      | @Cornell | @Colgate | Harvard |    DC   |    @PU   |    @QU   |
| Colgate  |    UC    |    RPI   |  @Yale  |  @Brown |    SLU   |    CCT   |
| UC       | @Colgate | @Cornell |    DC   | Harvard |    @QU   |    @PU   |
| Yale     |   @SLU   |   @CCT   | Colgate | Cornell |    @DC   | @Harvard |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Yale needs a miracle to finish 8th or higher.

Cornell inches closer and closer to having a mathematical lock on home-ice.

The Harvard / Clarkson / Dartmouth / Quinnipiac quartet is just waiting for a slight slip-up from either RPI or Brown to clinch themselves a place in the postseason.

Side note: I'm really happy that all twelve teams have six games remaining. I suppose with the women's Beanpot on Tuesdays, the lady Crimson don't need the extra rest that the men do.

The Clarkson / Dartmouth / Quinnipiac tiebreaker is broken by H2H points (5 v 3 v 0 then 2 v 0, where Quinnipiac has a game remaining against each team).

The Brown / RPI tiebreaker is broken by H2H points as well (3 v 1, season series is over).

Brown can still play in the playoffs without taking another point.
 
Re: RPI 2011-12 season

I just made a similar post in response to burgie's thread in the Men's forum, but I'll restate it here. I recently put together a spreadsheet calculating the final point total for each team given their current KRACH (assuming the expected point return from a given game is (chance of winning)*(2 points)) and their remaining schedule. Keep in mind that this doesn't account for home/away games or momentum, so it's in no way perfect. So here are the "expected final standings".

Standings
1. Cornell (39)
2. Harvard (33)
3. Dartmouth (32)
4. Clarkson (30)
-----
5. Quinnipiac (29)
6. St. Lawrence (28)
7. Princeton (21)
8. Brown (15)
-----
9. RPI (15)
10. Colgate (12)
11. Union (7)
12. Yale (2)

Note: All point values are rounded to the nearest point. As such, while some teams may appear to be tied, even though this is not the case (i.e., Brown and RPI appear to be tied at 15, but in actuality, Brown (14.72) is beating RPI (14.56) by a small margin).

So unfortunately, if everything goes "as expected", RPI will be on the outside looking in, but it's definitely close enough to hold out hope.
 
Re: RPI 2011-12 season

Stats aside, I like RPI's chances based on how they have played since the holiday break. But it will be a GREAT 3-team race, with the two key games being Colgate vs. RPI and Colgate vs. Brown. If Colgate wins them both (and doesn't stumble against Yale or Union) they are in; otherwise, it is a battle to the wire between Brown and RPI.
 
Re: RPI 2011-12 season

From the directory


Name: Alexa Leigh Gruschow
Class: First-Year Student
Curriculum: Biology

Everyone but Mankey is there.
 
Re: RPI 2011-12 season

Updated Expected Standings after tonight's games:

1. Cornell (39)
2. Harvard (34)
3. Clarkson (31)
4. Dartmouth (30)
-----
5. St. Lawrence (28)
6. Quinnipiac (28)
7. Princeton (23)
8. RPI (14)
-----
9. Brown (14)
10. Colgate (13)
11. Union (7)
12. Yale (2)

Of note: There were a few switches in position, so this version actually now mirrors the current standings except for the apparent tie between RPI and Brown (RPI actually leading by 0.01 expected points) being split the other way. So we're "in" by a hair for now. The way I see it, we absolutely must win tomorrow and hopefully pick up one more point elsewhere, otherwise we just have to hope that Brown falls to Colgate (at which point we're in danger of losing out to Colgate too).
 
Re: RPI 2011-12 season

lugnut92 said:
Updated Expected Standings after tonight's games:

1. Cornell (39)
2. Harvard (34)
3. Clarkson (31)
4. Dartmouth (30)
-----
5. St. Lawrence (28)
6. Quinnipiac (28)
7. Princeton (23)
8. RPI (14)
-----
9. Brown (14)
10. Colgate (13)
11. Union (7)
12. Yale (2)

Of note: There were a few switches in position, so this version actually now mirrors the current standings except for the apparent tie between RPI and Brown (RPI actually leading by 0.01 expected points) being split the other way. So we're "in" by a hair for now. The way I see it, we absolutely must win tomorrow and hopefully pick up one more point elsewhere, otherwise we just have to hope that Brown falls to Colgate (at which point we're in danger of losing out to Colgate too).
Click to expand...

Hate to burst your bubble but the tiebreak between RPI and Brown goes to Brown so we have to get 1 more point than Brown somewhere along the way in order to finish eigth. Colgate still control their own destiny because if they were to win today and beat Brown and Yale they will move past both RPI and Brown. As stated in your post if RPI can beat Colgate today and Colgate then beats Brown is the simplest scenario to get RPI the last playoff spot.

Basically todays game is huge. Lets hope they come out to play a little better than they did when they had a similiar game vs Brown two weeks ago.
 
Re: RPI 2011-12 season

Stat Man said:
Hate to burst your bubble but the tiebreak between RPI and Brown goes to Brown so we have to get 1 more point than Brown somewhere along the way in order to finish eigth. Colgate still control their own destiny because if they were to win today and beat Brown and Yale they will move past both RPI and Brown. As stated in your post if RPI can beat Colgate today and Colgate then beats Brown is the simplest scenario to get RPI the last playoff spot.

Basically todays game is huge. Lets hope they come out to play a little better than they did when they had a similiar game vs Brown two weeks ago.
Click to expand...

That is true, however you must figure that his formula is based upon predicting the outcome of future games, and that he is rounding to the nearest whole number.
 
Re: RPI 2011-12 season

I don't have the time for a full update, but Harvard, Clarkson, Dartmouth, Quinnipiac, and St. Lawrence all clinched a place in the playoffs and Yale is eliminated from contention.

So, that leaves just Princeton, Brown, RPI, Colgate, and Union mathematically fighting for the last two playoff spots.
 
Re: RPI 2011-12 season

Tough 3-2 loss to Colgate today puts the Engineers' backs against the wall in the race for the final playoff spot. They are currently tied with Brown and one point ahead of Colgate, but Brown and Colgate play each other next weekend, and Colgate also has a game against last place Yale. So.....here is the situation for RPI: they need at least one and probably two upsets in their remaining 4 games against teams above them in the standings: Harvard, Dartmouth, Princeton, and Quinnipiac.
 
Re: RPI 2011-12 season

hab said:
Tough 3-2 loss to Colgate today puts the Engineers' backs against the wall in the race for the final playoff spot. They are currently tied with Brown and one point ahead of Colgate, but Brown and Colgate play each other next weekend, and Colgate also has a game against last place Yale. So.....here is the situation for RPI: they need at least one and probably two upsets in their remaining 4 games against teams above them in the standings: Harvard, Dartmouth, Princeton, and Quinnipiac.
Click to expand...

Mentioned before that it will take 15 or 16 points to make it.

If Colgate beats Yale next Friday you end up with:

Colgate 13
Brown 12
RPI 12

with Colgate vs Brown still to be played.

If Colgate wins that game they end up with 15, and RPI would need at least 16 points to jump over Colgate
If Brown wins that game, they end up with 14 and RPI would need at least 15 points to jump over Brown.
 
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