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RPI 2011-12 season

Re: RPI 2011-12 season

Ralph Baer said:
How does one quantify that? :)
Click to expand...

Degree to which RPI is playing above their position in the standings recently (on a scale of 1-10) : 7.
Degree to which I think that Alicia Harrison wants to keep playing hockey for a few more weekends (same scale): 10

7 X 10 = 70% probability that the Engineers make the playoffs. Simple math.
 
Re: RPI 2011-12 season

Engineers outplayed Princeton tonight but lost 2-1. Was watching it on video so it was hard to tell with a lot of the scoring opportunities whether it was a good save by the Tiger goalie, or a missed shot, but it looked like a hot goalie. Hopefully the same kind of effort tomorrow will result in a win and a playoff spot.
 
Re: RPI 2011-12 season

Hmm, I was at the game, thought Princeton outplayed RPI. Tigers out shot them anyway, 26-23. Weber did make a lot of good saves.
 
Re: RPI 2011-12 season

I won't post the expected standings again, as they haven't changed from last weekend and they're no different than the current standings. I did however calculate our chances of making the playoffs as 21.34% (assuming the chance of tie is 8.7% and the tie chance comes equally from each team). Now, this doesn't account for the fact that we'll be playing to extend our season and Quinnipiac will finish 6th win, loss, or tie. Unfortunately, the same could be Brown, who will be facing a Dartmouth team that will finish the season in 5th regardless of the game's outcome (at least I think that's how the tie would fall...).
 
Re: RPI 2011-12 season

lugnut92 said:
I won't post the expected standings again, as they haven't changed from last weekend and they're no different than the current standings. I did however calculate our chances of making the playoffs as 21.34% (assuming the chance of tie is 8.7% and the tie chance comes equally from each team). Now, this doesn't account for the fact that we'll be playing to extend our season and Quinnipiac will finish 6th win, loss, or tie. Unfortunately, the same could be Brown, who will be facing a Dartmouth team that will finish the season in 5th regardless of the game's outcome (at least I think that's how the tie would fall...).
Click to expand...

Dartmouth has lots to play for. If they win, they can still finish fourth and grab home ice.

The odds are better for RPI to grab points from Quinnipiac than they are for Brown to grab points from Dartmouth.
 
OnMAA said:
Dartmouth has lots to play for. If they win, they can still finish fourth and grab home ice.

The odds are better for RPI to grab points from Quinnipiac than they are for Brown to grab points from Dartmouth.
Click to expand...

According to the Dartmouth game notes, if SLU could upset Cornell tomorrow, they own the 4th tie-breaker against Darty
 
Re: RPI 2011-12 season

lugnut92 said:
a Dartmouth team that will finish the season in 5th regardless of the game's outcome (at least I think that's how the tie would fall...).
Click to expand...
A Dartmouth win AND a SLU loss to Cornell AND any Clarkson point against Colgate gives Dartmouth 4th place on the 3rd tiebreaker (Points vs Top 4) with a 2-3-1 record against a 1-4-1 record. Dartmouth has plenty to play for.
pakidnyc said:
According to the Dartmouth game notes, if SLU could upset Cornell tomorrow, they own the 4th tie-breaker against Darty
Click to expand...
A SLU upset over Cornell means that SLU and Dartmouth won't be tied. :p
 
Re: RPI 2011-12 season

Let's do a real quick-hitter here.

Cornell 38 - 40 [1-1]
Harvard 33 - 35 [2-2]
Clarkson 30 - 32 [3-4]
--- Home Lock - 30+
St. Lawrence 30 - 32 [3-5]
Dartmouth 28 - 30 [4-5]
--- Home Eligible - 30+
Quinnipiac 24 - 26 [6-6]
Princeton 20 - 22 [7-7]
--- In - 16+
Brown 14 - 16 [8-9]
Rensselaer 14 - 16 [8-10]
--- Out - 14+
Colgate 12 - 14 [9-10]
Union 6 - 18 [11-12]
Yale 3 - 5 [11-12]

St. Lawrence holds 3rd place based on H2H record (1-0-1 vs 0-1-1). But, since they haven't clinched home-ice and Clarkson has, they are listed in reverse order.

Brown holds 8th place based on H2H record (1-0-1 vs 0-1-1).

Remaining League Schedules:
Code: 
---------------------------
|              |    |S2/18|
---------------------------
| Cornell      | CR |  SL |
| Harvard      | HA |  YA |
| Clarkson     | CK | @CG |
| St. Lawrence | SL | @CR |
| Dartmouth    | DA |  BN |
| Quinnipiac   | QN |  RP |
| Princeton    | PN |  UN |
| Brown        | BN | @DA |
| Rensselaer   | RP | @QN |
| Colgate      | CG |  CK |
| Union        | UC | @PN |
| Yale         | YA | @HA |
---------------------------

Best-case scenarios:
Cornell (1st Place)
Already clinched

Harvard (2nd Place)
Already clinched

Clarkson (3rd Place)
1) Earn more points against Colgate than SLU does against Cornell

St. Lawrence (3rd Place)
1) Earn at least as many points against Cornell as Clarkson does against Colgate (Yes, this can be 0 and 0. That still gets SLU into the #3 seed.)

Dartmouth (4th Place)
1) Win AND St. Lawrence loses to Cornell AND Clarkson earns at least one point against Colgate

Quinnipiac (6th Place)
Already clinched

Princeton (7th Place)
Already clinched

Brown (8th Place)
1) Earn at least as many points against Dartmouth as RPI does against Quinnipiac (Yes, this can be 0 and 0. That still gets Brown into the #8 seed.)

RPI (8th Place)
1) Earn more points against Quinnipiac than Brown does against Dartmouth

Colgate (9th Place)
1) Win AND RPI loses to Quinnipiac

Union (11th Place)
Already clinched

Yale (12th Place)
Already "clinched"

Other intriguing scenarios:
St. Lawrence (Home-ice)
1) Earn any point against Cornell
2) Clarkson loses to Colgate
3) Dartmouth does not win against Brown

Tiebreakers: (winning teams listed first)
3rd-5th Place
St. Lawrence / Clarkson - H2H Record (1-0-1 vs 0-1-1)

Clarkson / Dartmouth - H2H Record (1-0-1 vs 0-1-1)

Dartmouth / St. Lawrence - Points vs Top 4 (2-3-1 vs 1-4-1)

St. Lawrence / Clarkson / Dartmouth - H2H Record (3-0-1 (SLU) vs 1-1-2 (CCT) vs 1-2-1 (DC)) earns SLU 3rd place. Clarkson wins the resulting tiebreaker against Dartmouth for 4th place.

8th-10th Place
Brown / RPI - H2H Record (1-0-1 vs 0-1-1)

Brown / Colgate - H2H Record (1-0-1 vs 0-1-1)

Colgate / RPI - Points vs Top 4 (1-7-0 vs 0-8-0). A win by Colgate against Clarkson gives them a win over a team that has already clinched home-ice AND guarantees that Dartmouth will not be a Top 4 team. The season split and equal number of wins gives the tiebreaker to Colgate.

Brown / Colgate / RPI - H2H Record (2-0-2 (Brown) vs 1-2-1 (Colgate, RPI)) earns Brown 8th place. Colgate wins the resulting tiebreaker against RPI for 9th place.
 
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Re: RPI 2011-12 season

burgie12 said:
A Dartmouth win AND a SLU loss to Cornell AND any Clarkson point against Colgate gives Dartmouth 4th place on the 3rd tiebreaker (Points vs Top 4) with a 2-3-1 record against a 1-4-1 record. Dartmouth has plenty to play for.
Click to expand...

See, that's why I should just leave those things to you. I went in assuming a three-way tie. I didn't consider what might happen if it was just between SLU and Dartmouth.
 
Re: RPI 2011-12 season

If you think about it, RPI and Brown are somewhat in playoff mode already. Today is win or tie or go home (sorry for the trite cliche). I realize through burgie's excellent analysis that Brown could conceivably lose today and still make it. But as a former coach once told me "Don't expect someone else to do your work for you. Take care of business today and let the other guy worry about what he has to do to succeed". That would seem to be good advice for both squads today. I'm just wondering in looking at both games, what the probability or % of success is for the road team based on the home team's 1. regular season home record 2. Dartmouth and Q-Pac's home record vs Brown and RPI for the past 3 or 4 seasons if this even matters. Also, does the fact that Quinny has clinched sixth place affect how they will approach the game vs. Dartmouth having something to play for? Doesn't that help RPI more than Brown?
 
Re: RPI 2011-12 season

5-1 QU final in Hamden with two empty netters. Just a bad outing for the Engineers who needed to play a good game to get into the playoffs and simply didn't do it. Penalty troubles in the first cost them a goal and no ability to sustain pressure throughout the game against a good QU squad was a recipe for disaster.
 
Re: RPI 2011-12 season

Good season guys. Unfortunately we couldn't make it work in the end, but there is always next year. We'll do better.
 
Re: RPI 2011-12 season

I noticed that the player pages have been updated with this year's highlights. The following are what has been added to the pages of the players who didn't play.

Shannon Ramelot: 2011-12: Did not play due to injury ...
Katie Daniels: 2011-12: Red-shirted due to injury ...
Clare Padmore: 2011-12: Did not play due to injury ...
Kristen Jakubowski: 2011-12: Red-shirted due to injury ...

That may be an indication that Daniels and Jakubowski will be back, but Ramelot and Padmore won't. Then again, I could be reading too much into the wording. :)
 
Re: RPI 2011-12 season

Ralph Baer said:
I noticed that the player pages have been updated with this year's highlights. The following are what has been added to the pages of the players who didn't play.

Shannon Ramelot: 2011-12: Did not play due to injury ...
Katie Daniels: 2011-12: Red-shirted due to injury ...
Clare Padmore: 2011-12: Did not play due to injury ...
Kristen Jakubowski: 2011-12: Red-shirted due to injury ...

That may be an indication that Daniels and Jakubowski will be back, but Ramelot and Padmore won't. Then again, I could be reading too much into the wording. :)
Click to expand...

I think you are reading too much into it. Daniels and Jakubowski are seniors that have apparently decided to return so this year would formally be considered a red-shirt season. Ramelot and Padmore can come back for their senior season and then decide if they want to treat this as a red-shirt year to get an additional year of eligibility.

Edit: Padmore's bio was apparently changed to specify a red-shirt season. That probably clarifies things a bit for both players.
 
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Re: RPI 2011-12 season

The CWHL wraps up this weekend with the Clarkson Cup games, so this is a good time to mention a couple of grads of the RPI Engineers who had good seasons. Whitney Naslund had 9 goals and 8 assists in 26 games for second place Boston (fourth highest on the team in both goals and total points), and a +/- of +14. Sonja van der Bliek played only three games in net for third place Brampton but won all three and posted impressive stats of 2.67 GAA and .902 save percentage.
 
Re: RPI 2011-12 season

All the known recruits are now in the RPI directory.

Name: Marielle Katherine Mankey
Class: First-Year Student
Curriculum: Chemistry
 
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