Re: RPI 2009-10 Part IV: The Boys are Back in Town
Finally-I think I understand this stuff a little bit better.
What Jayson said, plus a little extra...
First off, a sweep this weekend probably isn't enough to make the Engineers a TUC. We're in 31st in RPI. Moving up 6 spots in one weekend wouldn't be unheard of, but it's not terribly likely in a weekend where you're taking on the #55 out of 58 RPI team (Clarkson).
Second, St. Lawrence is 23rd in RPI. That's tenuous, and we're playing them. Beating them could make us 7-7 against TUCs, but it could also make us 6-6 (assuming BU, who's also pretty tenuous, stays above the golden 25 level).
Third, to go right along with what Jayson said, even a 7-7 record against TUCs isn't lighting the Pairwise on fire - and RPI is the most important component of the comparisons since it's the nominal tiebreaker. If the Engineers were a TUC right now (assuming their RPI was about at 25, meaning they don't win that criteria with anyone), they don't win the comparison with anyone (although BU and Minnesota would be close). Simply having .500 record against TUCs can help you win that criteria against lower-end PWR teams, but RPI is the most important, and losing the common opponent criteria (as the Engineers do with BU, SLU, and the Gophers) makes the TUC thing a wash anyway.
Realistically, the Engineers are only making the NCAA tournament if they hoist the Whitelaw Cup in Albany. They could go on a tear that would make them a TUC, but I just don't see them being able to rise high enough, fast enough, to make a splash in the PWR.
Oh... and totally agree on Colgate. Their record against quality teams makes them look like a paper tiger.
Finally-I think I understand this stuff a little bit better.