>>>>> RIT TIGERS - Offseason 2011 - Dreaming About 2011-2012 <<<<<

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: >>>>> RIT TIGERS - Offseason 2011 - Dreaming About 2011-2012 <<<<<

Re: >>>>> RIT TIGERS - Offseason 2011 - Dreaming About 2011-2012 <<<<<

People who post in this thread have heard this before, but since we have the attention of others...

I think its increditable unfair to judge any AHA team by just their out of conference record because the odds are stacked against them. Most of RIT OOC games have been early in the season and on the road. With the size of the AHA and imporantance of winning the conference, it leaves only a half dozen games out of conference and really the only time a coach has to experiament with in these games. This coming year should be interesting to watch RIT face many out of conference teams later in the year than they have in recent years past.

If you look at the games, you see RIT plays a lot of them close and has come up with some impressive wins. I think also 2010s run to the frozen four shows that when RIT puts its best out there and has time to gel, they are very dangours...

You have as many OOC games as mostly everyone else (6-8, close enough) with exception to the ECAC non-ivies (12) and UAH (34). Lots of teams put their NC games in early October (except the Ivies; they have no choice), and also a few in December as well, mostly because that is how leagues schedule things. At least half of the teams have to travel for each game or series of games. The size of all the leagues is pretty much the same at this point (obviously it won't be in two years). It sounds like a fairly even keel to me, which would also explain, to your credit, why you play close games. I do wish your team well in 6 of your 7 NC games , and all the best in your league games.

 

[Tweedle Dee]

Re: >>>>> RIT TIGERS - Offseason 2011 - Dreaming About 2011-2012 <<<<<

Re: >>>>> RIT TIGERS - Offseason 2011 - Dreaming About 2011-2012 <<<<<

You have as many OOC games as mostly everyone else (6-8, close enough) with exception to the ECAC non-ivies (12) and UAH (34). Lots of teams put their NC games in early October (except the Ivies; they have no choice), and also a few in December as well, mostly because that is how leagues schedule things. At least half of the teams have to travel for each game or series of games. The size of all the leagues is pretty much the same at this point (obviously it won't be in two years). It sounds like a fairly even keel to me, which would also explain, to your credit, why you play close games. I do wish your team well in 6 of your 7 NC games , and all the best in your league games.

In our other NC game you just hope we don't embarass you guys to bad, right?

 

[komey1]

Re: >>>>> RIT TIGERS - Offseason 2011 - Dreaming About 2011-2012 <<<<<

Re: >>>>> RIT TIGERS - Offseason 2011 - Dreaming About 2011-2012 <<<<<

You have as many OOC games as mostly everyone else (6-8, close enough) with exception to the ECAC non-ivies (12) and UAH (34). Lots of teams put their NC games in early October (except the Ivies; they have no choice), and also a few in December as well, mostly because that is how leagues schedule things. At least half of the teams have to travel for each game or series of games. The size of all the leagues is pretty much the same at this point (obviously it won't be in two years). It sounds like a fairly even keel to me, which would also explain, to your credit, why you play close games. I do wish your team well in 6 of your 7 NC games , and all the best in your league games.

The other thing about OOC games is that the AHA rarely hosts those games. Typically the teams are on the road. I believe RIT and Air Force have been able to consistantly get home non-conference games. I guess UConn always gets 1 for their tournament.

 

[Tom Naeger]

Re: >>>>> RIT TIGERS - Offseason 2011 - Dreaming About 2011-2012 <<<<<

Re: >>>>> RIT TIGERS - Offseason 2011 - Dreaming About 2011-2012 <<<<<

One of the best posts I have ever read and couldn't agree more!

Thanks Zyklon, all though every old timer here now hates you for you strengthing my ego

One more point FlagDude, the other difference is that the odds of AHA teams getting an at-large bid to the NCAA is next to zero. There was a year or two when RIT and Air Force got close with a few OOC wins that where very impressive. Problem was to get them over the hump mathmatically was that both teams bascially had to win the AHA Tournament and at that point a at-large bid is irrelevant. So basically all AHA teams know from the start of the season the only way to get into the tourament is to win the auto-bid. So that makes every conference game big and every OOC game good for nothing but self pride and a little bit of experimenting...

 

[TigerFan86-87]

Re: >>>>> RIT TIGERS - Offseason 2011 - Dreaming About 2011-2012 <<<<<

Re: >>>>> RIT TIGERS - Offseason 2011 - Dreaming About 2011-2012 <<<<<

There was a year or two when RIT and Air Force got close with a few OOC wins that where very impressive.

Just as a clarification... RIT has never won more than 2 OOC games in one season (2007-08 Cornell & UMn). They weren't very close to an at-large bid that season. Air Force did have that one season where they were hovering around the fringes of the at-large discussion, but RIT really hasn't except for 2009-10. However, in 2009-10, they were not in that discussion based on "a few OOC wins" since they were 0-6 in OOC games that regular season.

 

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: >>>>> RIT TIGERS - Offseason 2011 - Dreaming About 2011-2012 <<<<<

Re: >>>>> RIT TIGERS - Offseason 2011 - Dreaming About 2011-2012 <<<<<

Thanks Zyklon, all though every old timer here now hates you for you strengthing my ego

One more point FlagDude, the other difference is that the odds of AHA teams getting an at-large bid to the NCAA is next to zero. There was a year or two when RIT and Air Force got close with a few OOC wins that where very impressive. Problem was to get them over the hump mathmatically was that both teams bascially had to win the AHA Tournament and at that point a at-large bid is irrelevant. So basically all AHA teams know from the start of the season the only way to get into the tourament is to win the auto-bid. So that makes every conference game big and every OOC game good for nothing but self pride and a little bit of experimenting...

The biggest thing with the at-large bids is not only you have to do well out-of-conference, but your conference mates also need to do well out-of-conference, and the teams you play need to do well in and out of conference. You still need to do well with your league games should anyone else in your league be a team under consideration (TUC). Obviously we're discussing something you don't control, but it is still very important, especially considering how the RPI and PWR formulas work, should you need to try to get in at-large. The other point is still true that the guaranteed method of getting in is to win your conference title.

Unfortunately for you, Atlantic teams don't do all too well out of conference, so you're pretty much stuck with going via AHA autobid, meaning that any conference move (with a possible exception of going independent) is beneficial for you. There are still more cards in play, though, which is what makes this sort of discussion so interesting.

 

[Zyklon]

Re: >>>>> RIT TIGERS - Offseason 2011 - Dreaming About 2011-2012 <<<<<

Re: >>>>> RIT TIGERS - Offseason 2011 - Dreaming About 2011-2012 <<<<<

So Minnesota State Moorhead gets $15 million right away and we still have not raised the $15 million for our arena. Something is wrong...

 

[komey1]

Re: >>>>> RIT TIGERS - Offseason 2011 - Dreaming About 2011-2012 <<<<<

Re: >>>>> RIT TIGERS - Offseason 2011 - Dreaming About 2011-2012 <<<<<

So Minnesota State Moorhead gets $15 million right away and we still have not raised the $15 million for our arena. Something is wrong...

How much did you donate?

 

[Zyklon]

Re: >>>>> RIT TIGERS - Offseason 2011 - Dreaming About 2011-2012 <<<<<

Re: >>>>> RIT TIGERS - Offseason 2011 - Dreaming About 2011-2012 <<<<<

How much did you donate?

Fair enough. I have not donated much (student), however we are barely over 2 mil from what I understand.

 

[komey1]

Re: >>>>> RIT TIGERS - Offseason 2011 - Dreaming About 2011-2012 <<<<<

Re: >>>>> RIT TIGERS - Offseason 2011 - Dreaming About 2011-2012 <<<<<

Fair enough. I have not donated much (student), however we are barely over 2 mil from what I understand.

I"m actually surprised that there hasn't been any MAJOR fundraiser to my knowledge. It will take a while going $5 and $10 at a time.

 

[blazer777]

Re: >>>>> RIT TIGERS - Offseason 2011 - Dreaming About 2011-2012 <<<<<

Re: >>>>> RIT TIGERS - Offseason 2011 - Dreaming About 2011-2012 <<<<<

You have as many OOC games as mostly everyone else (6-8, close enough) with exception to the ECAC non-ivies (12) and UAH (34). Lots of teams put their NC games in early October (except the Ivies; they have no choice), and also a few in December as well, mostly because that is how leagues schedule things. At least half of the teams have to travel for each game or series of games. The size of all the leagues is pretty much the same at this point (obviously it won't be in two years). It sounds like a fairly even keel to me, which would also explain, to your credit, why you play close games. I do wish your team well in 6 of your 7 NC games , and all the best in your league games.

To reiterate Tom's previous qoute. Wilson generally experiments in the OOC games.

Here are the goalie records four our 7 OOC games last year.

Ropponen 1-2
Watson 0-2
Madalora 1-0-1

As you can see, Wilson wasn't starting Madalora in 5 of the games. Would that have made a difference, don't know but we know how good of a season he had last year.

I'm not sure if the opponents started their starting goalie during these game but it'd be an interesting comparison.

I'm not sure if Wilson do that this year but if the job is Madalora's to lose, then we might see him in more of the OOC games this year.

 

[MattS]

Re: >>>>> RIT TIGERS - Offseason 2011 - Dreaming About 2011-2012 <<<<<

Re: >>>>> RIT TIGERS - Offseason 2011 - Dreaming About 2011-2012 <<<<<

How much did you donate?

I suppose you donated a couple hundred thousand???

Seriously who are you to question someone's donations. I hope this was a bad joke.

 

[RITProf]

Re: >>>>> RIT TIGERS - Offseason 2011 - Dreaming About 2011-2012 <<<<<

Re: >>>>> RIT TIGERS - Offseason 2011 - Dreaming About 2011-2012 <<<<<

Agree with MattS ... there's no need for anyone here to question donations. Every RIT fan on this board is seriously committed to RIT hockey in one way or another. I don't take my shirt off and paint an orange "T" on my chest (thankfully for all of you!), but I do other things (and so on and so forth). I'm sure everyone here has done what they can. It is very tough times out there and I would be shocked if the grass roots fundraising has done anything significant. However, it is a great way for everyone to be involved with the new arena and feel they are part of it. I don't know what's going on behind the scenes, but my guess is that some very big donors are being courted behind the scenes and quietly (that's how it's done at the multi-million dollar level) and that someday (maybe soon, maybe later) we are going to get an announcement that will knock our socks off and a groundbreaking won't be far behind. Look at the campus ... it's an exceedingly rare event that RIT announces they are going to build something and then fails to follow through ... and usually on schedule.

I thought I'd never be seeing D1 hockey on campus and we made it. Likewise with a new arena and I can almost smell the dirt being turned over.
(I'd make a prediction on a new conference too, but I don't want to get flagdude all riled up again!!! )

 

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: >>>>> RIT TIGERS - Offseason 2011 - Dreaming About 2011-2012 <<<<<

Re: >>>>> RIT TIGERS - Offseason 2011 - Dreaming About 2011-2012 <<<<<

To reiterate Tom's previous qoute. Wilson generally experiments in the OOC games.

Here are the goalie records four our 7 OOC games last year.

Ropponen 1-2
Watson 0-2
Madalora 1-0-1

As you can see, Wilson wasn't starting Madalora in 5 of the games. Would that have made a difference, don't know but we know how good of a season he had last year.

I'm not sure if the opponents started their starting goalie during these game but it'd be an interesting comparison.

I'm not sure if Wilson do that this year but if the job is Madalora's to lose, then we might see him in more of the OOC games this year.

I can understand this method of thought. Tinkering with NC works if you're in a strong conference (like the WCHA or the new BHHC) or strong in your league (obviously you are, but so is Air Force), and it is a good way to get ready for league play, I'll agree. Even RPI has done the same thing with tinkering in previous years. Last year we didn't seem to do that, though, and pretty much went York the whole time aside from the UCONN game and injury. (and look where we went compared to other years ) I don't have the calculations in front of me, but I would take a look at the RPI/PWR calculations for previous years, and see what would have happened if, all other factors the same, you had gone 7-0 or even 6-1 (depending on who beat you) in your NC games. Would you have been able to make the tournament at-large? Remember, a couple years ago, Vermont made the tournament at-large despite almost not making the HEA playoffs (last two teams are out after the regular season there).

I realize that tinker time is a coach's decision, and rightuflly it should remain so. Not to mention, giving your other goalies a chance to get in there. It looks like everyone saw time in league play (although one looks like he came in at the end).

 

[komey1]

Re: >>>>> RIT TIGERS - Offseason 2011 - Dreaming About 2011-2012 <<<<<

Re: >>>>> RIT TIGERS - Offseason 2011 - Dreaming About 2011-2012 <<<<<

I suppose you donated a couple hundred thousand???

Seriously who are you to question someone's donations. I hope this was a bad joke.

Partly a bad joke - but more of his complaining about RIT only having 2 million in donations for the new rink. With over 15 years of following RIT hockey and enough RIT hockey shirts that I could wear a differant one for almost a month I think it's safe to say I've put a pretty decent amount of money into RIT's coffers. I'm also ready to jump on the next big fundraising effort for this instead of $5 and $10 texts.

 

[komey1]

Re: >>>>> RIT TIGERS - Offseason 2011 - Dreaming About 2011-2012 <<<<<

Re: >>>>> RIT TIGERS - Offseason 2011 - Dreaming About 2011-2012 <<<<<

Any AHA team that thinks of getting an at large relys a lot on their ranking in the RPI. To get a chance, a team would need to be top 15 there minimum (and that number will likely be lower once the conferences are settled next year). I figure that a team would need to go about .750 in conference and .500 OOC to have a realistic chance. The killer is that they cannot lost to the worst teams in the conference.

 

[kingdobbs]

Re: >>>>> RIT TIGERS - Offseason 2011 - Dreaming About 2011-2012 <<<<<

Re: >>>>> RIT TIGERS - Offseason 2011 - Dreaming About 2011-2012 <<<<<

Any AHA team that thinks of getting an at large relys a lot on their ranking in the RPI. To get a chance, a team would need to be top 15 there minimum (and that number will likely be lower once the conferences are settled next year). I figure that a team would need to go about .750 in conference and .500 OOC to have a realistic chance. The killer is that they cannot lost to the worst teams in the conference.

Actually, as it turns out, no they don't. The deleterious effect of low-end in-league losses is often overstated.

Flipping all 2010-11 results against teams finishing 10-12 in league (Bentley, Sacred Heart, AIC) to losses, and all losses or ties against the rest to wins (22-6), RIT sits at 21 in a simulated pairwise. Changing any one of their NC losses against RPI, Union, or Merrimack to wins puts them in the tournament (and beating Merrimack even gets RIT a third seed).

RIT (or any other AHA team) can afford to lose or tie 6 or 7 games in league before it would have a substantive negative effect on their ability to make a tournament game, and in that position, their non-con results will matter far more (as they generally do).

 

[blazer777]

Re: >>>>> RIT TIGERS - Offseason 2011 - Dreaming About 2011-2012 <<<<<

Re: >>>>> RIT TIGERS - Offseason 2011 - Dreaming About 2011-2012 <<<<<

Any AHA team that thinks of getting an at large relys a lot on their ranking in the RPI. To get a chance, a team would need to be top 15 there minimum (and that number will likely be lower once the conferences are settled next year). I figure that a team would need to go about .750 in conference and .500 OOC to have a realistic chance. The killer is that they cannot lost to the worst teams in the conference.

You are correct but.............

You also need your AHA conference teams (a good number of them) to play .500 or better in their OOC games too. Failing that, you won't get an at-large bid.

 

[blazer777]

Re: >>>>> RIT TIGERS - Offseason 2011 - Dreaming About 2011-2012 <<<<<

Re: >>>>> RIT TIGERS - Offseason 2011 - Dreaming About 2011-2012 <<<<<

I can understand this method of thought. Tinkering with NC works if you're in a strong conference (like the WCHA or the new BHHC) or strong in your league (obviously you are, but so is Air Force), and it is a good way to get ready for league play, I'll agree. Even RPI has done the same thing with tinkering in previous years. Last year we didn't seem to do that, though, and pretty much went York the whole time aside from the UCONN game and injury. (and look where we went compared to other years ) I don't have the calculations in front of me, but I would take a look at the RPI/PWR calculations for previous years, and see what would have happened if, all other factors the same, you had gone 7-0 or even 6-1 (depending on who beat you) in your NC games. Would you have been able to make the tournament at-large? Remember, a couple years ago, Vermont made the tournament at-large despite almost not making the HEA playoffs (last two teams are out after the regular season there).

I realize that tinker time is a coach's decision, and rightuflly it should remain so. Not to mention, giving your other goalies a chance to get in there. It looks like everyone saw time in league play (although one looks like he came in at the end).

I'm an idiot, it's for, not four!

Here are the goalie records four our 7 OOC games last year.

I'm of the mindset that if you win, you're in. Hoping to make it in based off 4 other factors is too painful to think about and doing the math, I'll leave for others on this board.

 

[komey1]

Re: >>>>> RIT TIGERS - Offseason 2011 - Dreaming About 2011-2012 <<<<<

Re: >>>>> RIT TIGERS - Offseason 2011 - Dreaming About 2011-2012 <<<<<

Actually, as it turns out, no they don't. The deleterious effect of low-end in-league losses is often overstated.

Flipping all 2010-11 results against teams finishing 10-12 in league (Bentley, Sacred Heart, AIC) to losses, and all losses or ties against the rest to wins (22-6), RIT sits at 21 in a simulated pairwise. Changing any one of their NC losses against RPI, Union, or Merrimack to wins puts them in the tournament (and beating Merrimack even gets RIT a third seed).

RIT (or any other AHA team) can afford to lose or tie 6 or 7 games in league before it would have a substantive negative effect on their ability to make a tournament game, and in that position, their non-con results will matter far more (as they generally do).

The Merrimack loss stung because it was a home game and the coach's decision to start Watson. My thought at the time was a win would be huge for any at large chances. I"m not saying Madolora wins that game, but he would have given RIT a better chance.