Tom Naeger
"Happy Talk" Ends Here...
Re: >>> RIT Tigers 2018/2019 - Time For The Tigers to Roar <<<
Paging Russell Jaslow, Fredonia @ Buff State on Wednesday night?
Paging Russell Jaslow, Fredonia @ Buff State on Wednesday night?
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>>> RIT Tigers 2018/2019 - Time For The Tigers to Roar <<<
- Thread starter XCTiger
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Re: >>> RIT Tigers 2018/2019 - Time For The Tigers to Roar <<<
I can't necessarily prove it, but I have a hard time believing the Tigers can still finish 10th with the way the tiebreakers work out.
Basically, the scenario where the sliver of possibility exists is if Robert Morris wins out, RIT loses out, and Holy Cross wins out. This puts all the teams at 27 points. If the rest of the league passes them, then Robert Morris wins the 3 way tiebreaker to finish 8th, RIT finishes 9th, and Holy Cross finishes 10th. (RIT wins the head to head tiebreaker with Holy Cross on the 3rd tiebreaker, H2H goal differential, since if either team ties the rest of the way they can't end the season tied in the final standings).
There has to be some other team (or teams) that Holy Cross did very well against while RIT and Robert Morris did poorly against, to get Holy Cross out of the tiebreaker before it comes down to a head to head vs. Holy Cross (which RIT wins).
Here are all the additional teams that could end up tied at 27 points and the result of the tiebreakers: (Air Force plays Holy Cross, so they can't both end up at 27)
Sacred Heart: SH wins 4 team tiebreak, leaves us with the 3 teams above (RIT finishes 9th)
Mercyhurst: Robert Morris wins 4 team tiebreak, Mercyhurst wins tiebreak between remaining 3, RIT tops Holy Cross (RIT finishes 9th)
Niagara: Robert Morris wins 4 team tiebreak, RIT wins tiebreak between remaining 3 (RIT finishes 8th)
Army: Holy Cross wins 4 team tiebreak, but then Robert Morris wins the tiebreak between the remaining three, then RIT tops Army (RIT finishes 9th)
So basically, for RIT to finish 10th, there would have to be a 5 way or more tie (with the last position being 10th), and RIT would have to lose all tiebreakers, meaning none of Niagara, Army, and Holy Cross could be the other last team standing. Maybe later this week I'll have time to test out all the possible 5 and 6 way tiebreakers :laugh:
I can't necessarily prove it, but I have a hard time believing the Tigers can still finish 10th with the way the tiebreakers work out.
Basically, the scenario where the sliver of possibility exists is if Robert Morris wins out, RIT loses out, and Holy Cross wins out. This puts all the teams at 27 points. If the rest of the league passes them, then Robert Morris wins the 3 way tiebreaker to finish 8th, RIT finishes 9th, and Holy Cross finishes 10th. (RIT wins the head to head tiebreaker with Holy Cross on the 3rd tiebreaker, H2H goal differential, since if either team ties the rest of the way they can't end the season tied in the final standings).
There has to be some other team (or teams) that Holy Cross did very well against while RIT and Robert Morris did poorly against, to get Holy Cross out of the tiebreaker before it comes down to a head to head vs. Holy Cross (which RIT wins).
Here are all the additional teams that could end up tied at 27 points and the result of the tiebreakers: (Air Force plays Holy Cross, so they can't both end up at 27)
Sacred Heart: SH wins 4 team tiebreak, leaves us with the 3 teams above (RIT finishes 9th)
Mercyhurst: Robert Morris wins 4 team tiebreak, Mercyhurst wins tiebreak between remaining 3, RIT tops Holy Cross (RIT finishes 9th)
Niagara: Robert Morris wins 4 team tiebreak, RIT wins tiebreak between remaining 3 (RIT finishes 8th)
Army: Holy Cross wins 4 team tiebreak, but then Robert Morris wins the tiebreak between the remaining three, then RIT tops Army (RIT finishes 9th)
So basically, for RIT to finish 10th, there would have to be a 5 way or more tie (with the last position being 10th), and RIT would have to lose all tiebreakers, meaning none of Niagara, Army, and Holy Cross could be the other last team standing. Maybe later this week I'll have time to test out all the possible 5 and 6 way tiebreakers :laugh:
Russell Jaslow
Registered User
Re: >>> RIT Tigers 2018/2019 - Time For The Tigers to Roar <<<
I'm just going to watch the games and see what happens...
I'm just going to watch the games and see what happens...
Russell Jaslow
Registered User
Re: >>> RIT Tigers 2018/2019 - Time For The Tigers to Roar <<<
That's my plan. However, the icy weather is now supposed to hit right when I need to leave...
That's my plan. However, the icy weather is now supposed to hit right when I need to leave...
TigerFan86-87
R!!!!...I!!!!!...T!!!!!!
Re: >>> RIT Tigers 2018/2019 - Time For The Tigers to Roar <<<
Of course, as I said earlier, I can't imagine a huge number of sweeps these last two weeks, let alone those four specifically on top of RIT being swept and RMU sweeping twice. Regardless of what other scenarios we could cook up, it's highly unlikely that a tie-breaker for the Tigers to avoid 10th place would be something we're talking about come March 3. If it is, I'm just gong to tap out.
How do you figure? Air Force already has 27 points. If HC wins out and Air Force loses out, they both end up with 27. That would then mean that Mercyhurst would end up with 29 points (having swept Air Force) and out of this tie-break.
Of course, as I said earlier, I can't imagine a huge number of sweeps these last two weeks, let alone those four specifically on top of RIT being swept and RMU sweeping twice. Regardless of what other scenarios we could cook up, it's highly unlikely that a tie-breaker for the Tigers to avoid 10th place would be something we're talking about come March 3. If it is, I'm just gong to tap out.
Re: >>> RIT Tigers 2018/2019 - Time For The Tigers to Roar <<<
You're right, I think I had Mercyhurst still on the brain there.
Good news is the four way tiebreak between RIT/AF/RoMo/HC has the same result. Air Force wins that four way tiebreak, leaving the same remaining three team tiebreak that RIT finishes 9th in.
I went through all of the 5 team tiebreakers (except the ones involving Air Force, obviously) yesterday in my spare time, and none of those ended up with RIT finishing 10th either. If things are slow at work tonight I'll do the AF ones and the 6-teamers and the two 7 team tiebreak scenarios :laugh:. The ones involving Air Force might get us a scenario where we could finish 10th since HC will have had to sweep Air Force to get there, which means there's a better chance of Holy Cross leaving the tiebreaker early.
But as of right now I can definitely say it will take at least a 5 team tiebreak (that includes Air Force) at 27 points with none of Sacred Heart/Mercyhurst/Niagara/Army ending up under 27 points for us to finish 10th.
Realistically, RIT should clinch a home ice 1st round series this weekend (it would take not being swept, and even if they are swept there's outside scenarios involving others that could get them there.
You're right, I think I had Mercyhurst still on the brain there.
Good news is the four way tiebreak between RIT/AF/RoMo/HC has the same result. Air Force wins that four way tiebreak, leaving the same remaining three team tiebreak that RIT finishes 9th in.
I went through all of the 5 team tiebreakers (except the ones involving Air Force, obviously) yesterday in my spare time, and none of those ended up with RIT finishing 10th either. If things are slow at work tonight I'll do the AF ones and the 6-teamers and the two 7 team tiebreak scenarios :laugh:. The ones involving Air Force might get us a scenario where we could finish 10th since HC will have had to sweep Air Force to get there, which means there's a better chance of Holy Cross leaving the tiebreaker early.
But as of right now I can definitely say it will take at least a 5 team tiebreak (that includes Air Force) at 27 points with none of Sacred Heart/Mercyhurst/Niagara/Army ending up under 27 points for us to finish 10th.
Realistically, RIT should clinch a home ice 1st round series this weekend (it would take not being swept, and even if they are swept there's outside scenarios involving others that could get them there.
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Re: >>> RIT Tigers 2018/2019 - Time For The Tigers to Roar <<<
Well, I found one scenario where RIT could finish 10th.
Behold the unlikeliest of unlikely scenarios (all of the following must happen):
This week:
Robert Morris sweeps RIT
Army takes exactly 3 points from Sacred Heart
Niagara takes 3 points or more from Canisius
Holy Cross sweeps Bentley
Mercyhurst takes exactly 2 points from Air Force
Following Week:
Canisius and Niagara defeat RIT
AIC sweeps Sacred Heart (you cannot swap where Sacred Heart gets their single point from because the point earned against Army actually switches who wins the initial 6 team tiebreaker)
Army takes exactly 3 points from Bentley (see above)
Holy Cross sweeps Air Force
Robert Morris sweeps Mercyhurst
This results in a 6 way tiebreaker between RIT/SH/MH/ARMY/RoMo/HC where if Army takes exactly 3 points against Sacred Heart in their matchup then Robert Morris wins the initial tiebreaker, leaving RIT/SH/MH/ARMY/HC. Holy Cross then wins that tiebreaker, leaving RIT/SH/MH/ARMY. Army wins that tiebreaker, leaving RIT/SH/MH. RIT lost the season series against both of those teams, so they must finish last among those 3 teams, resulting in a 10th place finish. Here's what the final standings would look like:
1. AIC 39
2. Bentley 31
3 or 4. Air Force 29
3 or 4. Niagara 28-29 (Sweep Canisius to finish at 29 and finish 3rd, take 3 points from Canisius to finish 4th with 28 points.)
5. Robert Morris 27
6. Holy Cross 27
7. Army 27
8. Mercyhurst 27
9. Sacred Heart 27
10. RIT 27
11. Canisius 18 or 19
Literally every series except 1 (Canisius vs. Niagara) has to end in an exact result - and even the CAN/NIA series only has two results that can result in this scenario.
Not quite done testing all the possible tiebreaks, but I wouldn't be surprised if this was the only scenario in which RIT could finish 10th.
EDIT: Unless I made a mistake somewhere, I have confirmed that this is the only scenario where RIT could finish 10th.
Well, I found one scenario where RIT could finish 10th.
Behold the unlikeliest of unlikely scenarios (all of the following must happen):
This week:
Robert Morris sweeps RIT
Army takes exactly 3 points from Sacred Heart
Niagara takes 3 points or more from Canisius
Holy Cross sweeps Bentley
Mercyhurst takes exactly 2 points from Air Force
Following Week:
Canisius and Niagara defeat RIT
AIC sweeps Sacred Heart (you cannot swap where Sacred Heart gets their single point from because the point earned against Army actually switches who wins the initial 6 team tiebreaker)
Army takes exactly 3 points from Bentley (see above)
Holy Cross sweeps Air Force
Robert Morris sweeps Mercyhurst
This results in a 6 way tiebreaker between RIT/SH/MH/ARMY/RoMo/HC where if Army takes exactly 3 points against Sacred Heart in their matchup then Robert Morris wins the initial tiebreaker, leaving RIT/SH/MH/ARMY/HC. Holy Cross then wins that tiebreaker, leaving RIT/SH/MH/ARMY. Army wins that tiebreaker, leaving RIT/SH/MH. RIT lost the season series against both of those teams, so they must finish last among those 3 teams, resulting in a 10th place finish. Here's what the final standings would look like:
1. AIC 39
2. Bentley 31
3 or 4. Air Force 29
3 or 4. Niagara 28-29 (Sweep Canisius to finish at 29 and finish 3rd, take 3 points from Canisius to finish 4th with 28 points.)
5. Robert Morris 27
6. Holy Cross 27
7. Army 27
8. Mercyhurst 27
9. Sacred Heart 27
10. RIT 27
11. Canisius 18 or 19
Literally every series except 1 (Canisius vs. Niagara) has to end in an exact result - and even the CAN/NIA series only has two results that can result in this scenario.
Not quite done testing all the possible tiebreaks, but I wouldn't be surprised if this was the only scenario in which RIT could finish 10th.
EDIT: Unless I made a mistake somewhere, I have confirmed that this is the only scenario where RIT could finish 10th.
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Re: >>> RIT Tigers 2018/2019 - Time For The Tigers to Roar <<<
Good research, now let's hope RIT gets 3 or 4 points to this weekend to shore up there hold on a bye.
Looks like rooting interests are Holy Cross, and Mercyhurst/Air Force depending on how RIT does.
EDIT: and Go ARMY!
Good research, now let's hope RIT gets 3 or 4 points to this weekend to shore up there hold on a bye.
Looks like rooting interests are Holy Cross, and Mercyhurst/Air Force depending on how RIT does.
EDIT: and Go ARMY!
TigerFan86-87
R!!!!...I!!!!!...T!!!!!!
Re: >>> RIT Tigers 2018/2019 - Time For The Tigers to Roar <<<
Is this actually the way they do multiple team tie-breakers in this mickey mouse league, by determining the winner then starting over again with one less until it's down to one? I hope that's not true. On its face, that just seems illocigal. I don't know that I've ever read a definitive explanation how AHA determines such multiple tie-breaks, but I hope that isn't it. If you've got 5 teams and the tie-breaker is (for the sake of argument) cumulative record against the teams involved in the tie, wouldn't you just rank those records by winning percentage in order 1 to 5 and be done with it? Why create 4 levels of potentially very different and confusing tie-breaking scenarios over just one? Plus, I will note that in your scenario you pull out one tie-break winner from 6 to 5, 5 to 4 and 4 to 3, then you do a straight up 3-way tie-break. I'm pretty sure (although with this league, who knows?) they would have to be consistent regardless of how many teams are involved, wouldn't they?
Is this actually the way they do multiple team tie-breakers in this mickey mouse league, by determining the winner then starting over again with one less until it's down to one? I hope that's not true. On its face, that just seems illocigal. I don't know that I've ever read a definitive explanation how AHA determines such multiple tie-breaks, but I hope that isn't it. If you've got 5 teams and the tie-breaker is (for the sake of argument) cumulative record against the teams involved in the tie, wouldn't you just rank those records by winning percentage in order 1 to 5 and be done with it? Why create 4 levels of potentially very different and confusing tie-breaking scenarios over just one? Plus, I will note that in your scenario you pull out one tie-break winner from 6 to 5, 5 to 4 and 4 to 3, then you do a straight up 3-way tie-break. I'm pretty sure (although with this league, who knows?) they would have to be consistent regardless of how many teams are involved, wouldn't they?
I just took a shortcut. If you're down to 3 teams and you have a losing record against both, you won't win the 3 team tiebreaker, and then you can't win a head to head tiebreaker against whichever team doesn't win the 3 way tiebreaker.
And yes, I do believe that's how the AHA (and most other leagues, for that matter, most notably the NFL) do it. My evidence for that is the 2016-17 season...for which I'll fill in the details of when I get a minute.
EDIT: Ok, details of the 2016-17 season. In this season, there was a 3-way tie at the end of the regular season between RIT, Mercyhurst, and Bentley for 6th place. Among the 3 teams, RIT was 4-2-0, Bentley was 3-3-0, and Mercyhurst was 1-3-0. So RIT won 6th. However, instead of going directly to Bentley at 7th, they performed another tiebreaker between Bentley and Mercyhurst. This tiebreaker went down to wins in conference (they split 1-1 between each other) and Mercyhurst was awarded 7th position, with Bentley finishing 8th. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Atlantic_Hockey_Tournament#Standings
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Russell Jaslow
Registered User
Re: >>> RIT Tigers 2018/2019 - Time For The Tigers to Roar <<<
A lot of conferences do this. In fact, probably all of them do.
A lot of conferences do this. In fact, probably all of them do.
Russell Jaslow
Registered User
The student free ticket night is tomorrow.
And the five free nights were planned at the start of the season. This message board had no effect on it whatsoever.
Transplanted Tiger Fan
"Let's Roll" - Todd Beamer, 9/11/01
Re: >>> RIT Tigers 2018/2019 - Time For The Tigers to Roar <<<
Awesome that the free ticket night is tomorrow... I will finally get the chance to experience a packed house up there!!
Cheers!!!
~TTF
Truth... announced back in June (post, containing link). This was part of the 50th anniversary of RIT moving to the Henrietta campus. Having said that, I am hopeful that RIT does not end this after this year, and establishes this as a new tradition that will occur every season.
Awesome that the free ticket night is tomorrow... I will finally get the chance to experience a packed house up there!!
Cheers!!!
~TTF
Re: >>> RIT Tigers 2018/2019 - Time For The Tigers to Roar <<<
Also looking forward to a packed house tomorrow as well. Will be there with my grandson helping to make some noise.
Also looking forward to a packed house tomorrow as well. Will be there with my grandson helping to make some noise.
RIT Winters
Hey, you SUCK!
Re: >>> RIT Tigers 2018/2019 - Time For The Tigers to Roar <<<
Hey, we didn't lose the third! Yay!
Hey, we didn't lose the third! Yay!
Tom Naeger
"Happy Talk" Ends Here...
Re: >>> RIT Tigers 2018/2019 - Time For The Tigers to Roar <<<
Good News is they got the win, bad news clamping down in the 3rd remains an issue with this team. Tough to win Championships that way...
Re: >>> RIT Tigers 2018/2019 - Time For The Tigers to Roar <<<
RIT is 11-1-0 in AHA play this season when leading after two.
RIT is 11-1-0 in AHA play this season when leading after two.
Re: >>> RIT Tigers 2018/2019 - Time For The Tigers to Roar <<<
An RIT win tonight and an Air Force win over Mercyhurst would clinch a first-round bye for RIT.
An RIT win tonight and an Air Force win over Mercyhurst would clinch a first-round bye for RIT.
Re: >>> RIT Tigers 2018/2019 - Time For The Tigers to Roar <<<
Impressive, but not the most relevant metric, necessarily.
The one loss was two weeks ago, to Holy Cross. Last Saturday, RIT was tied going into the third, so doesn't show up in the "leading after two" stats, but had a lead in the third period that they couldn't hold. And last night is one of the 11 wins in your stat, but it only came after RIT gave up their lead. I think there are others among the 11 where that's the case. The perception could be a case of recentism bias.
So what I would be interested to see is the number of games in which RIT had a third-period lead but later gave up that lead, whether RIT ultimately won, lost, or tied.
Powers &8^]
Impressive, but not the most relevant metric, necessarily.
The one loss was two weeks ago, to Holy Cross. Last Saturday, RIT was tied going into the third, so doesn't show up in the "leading after two" stats, but had a lead in the third period that they couldn't hold. And last night is one of the 11 wins in your stat, but it only came after RIT gave up their lead. I think there are others among the 11 where that's the case. The perception could be a case of recentism bias.
So what I would be interested to see is the number of games in which RIT had a third-period lead but later gave up that lead, whether RIT ultimately won, lost, or tied.
Powers &8^]
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