>>> RIT Tigers 2018/2019 - Time For The Tigers to Roar <<<

[Ed Trefzger]

Re: >>> RIT Tigers 2018/2019 - Time For The Tigers to Roar <<<

Lawson Arena at Western Michigan (capacity 3,667) has free tickets for its student section (Lawson Lunatics) every game. The atmosphere there is unbelievable.


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[Tom Naeger]

Re: >>> RIT Tigers 2018/2019 - Time For The Tigers to Roar <<<

You know I'm going to stop talking about a teams flaws or say they aren't doing so well. AIC is preparing a big pile of jurassic park dinosaur droppings that I need to eat. And as soon as I gave up on Bentley they start playing well. All though I still hold that if RIT was more with it they get at least 2 points last weekend, but the sweep last weekend sure makes up for it.

Forgive me, but I do have to give credit to Jablonski for getting the guys together and getting that 2nd goal call correct. Maybe a little to liberal at times, but I am actually fine withe the game they called Saturday.

This weekend will be a good test to gauge where the team will be at if they make the NCAAs. Arizona state is right on the bubble and frankly needs these two teams against the highest AHA ranked team in the Pairwise. I'd only play Drackett one game if he 100% ready and let Ian have the other start. It be interesting to see where RIT would be if they get two wins this weekend in the Pairwise. Even though they probably be the highest and latest rank in the pairwise, they still are probably going to have to win their way into the NCAAs.

If RIT can get a sweep of last place Holy Cross they really be in a brawl for a regular season championship. Air Force, AIC, and RIT all have favorable schedule. SHU has had their number lately, but not blowing anyone else away. RMU seems to finally be having an off year, and RIT does seem to play them well at the GPC. Niagara is holding on, but they don't seem to match up well against RIT. And Canisius seems to only show up this year for North Dakota. If they can get a sweep on Holy Cross and spilt the rest of the series, including one of the last two games (Nia/Can) they should be in the top three and gives them as good chance to WIN a home playoff series to head to Buffalo, which should be a war... Buckle Up!

 

[Tom Naeger]

Re: >>> RIT Tigers 2018/2019 - Time For The Tigers to Roar <<<

I think that can be said of a lot of recruits coming in. I don't follow the recruiting scene really at all outside of this forum, but it seems like most of the players we get put up numbers in juniors. So as a fan who never follows those leagues and has never seen them play, I (and I assume a large number of RIT fans aside from Tom) have absolutely no idea what kind of player they will turn out to be when they get here.

All the work I do, I'd just say I get an educated guess on how they will do. I'd say maybe I'm 60/40 judging on predicting success or failure on each recruit.

Let's look at this year's class, the guy who I thought was going to be a stud this season was Liam Kerins. Now Liam did have a great first two years, but struggles last season and moved on to others things this year. Christian Short, I thought might be a 4 year starter. I mean he is from the BCHL league, can't miss right? All fairness to Christian who is a great kid, I have to admit my biggest disagreement with the coaches was how his sophomore year was handled. It's been really tough and frankly he deserves a ton of credit for how he has professionally handled the situation, but nevertheless my prediction was off.

Valenzuela looked like an under size late bloomer so I saw him as a 50/50. Erik brown was a good player in that CCHL league that many people seem to dismiss. I'd thought he'd be good, but never thought he set a goal scoring record. Girduckis and Logan are probably a bit above the expectations I had for each. Only player I really was right on was Austin Wright as being a bit of a long shot. Like a buddy of mine he found himself in the GOJHL, and put up some great numbers. But when he moved to a better league he had less success. From everything I heard on him he was a good little player so little surprise he didn't find a D-III team to lang on.

Recruiting is always going to be an art instead of a science. I mean think how much changed for most of us as we went to college. That probably even more so for these hockey guys who are trying to make it playing with probably the top 5 to 10 percent of hockey players in the world?

Speaking of Recruits, RIT has their second verbal recruit for the 2020-2021 season. Aiden Hansen-Bukata of Nanaimo (BCHL). Second Defenseman to commit to RIT for that season. The other is Dimitri Mikrogiannakis, my potential typos and Ed is probably not liking these long names...

 

[TigerFan86-87]

Re: >>> RIT Tigers 2018/2019 - Time For The Tigers to Roar <<<

This weekend will be a good test to gauge where the team will be at if they make the NCAAs. Arizona state is right on the bubble and frankly needs these two teams against the highest AHA ranked team in the Pairwise.

Not to mention ASU plays AIC the following weekend. They desperately need to win all four of those contests to stay in an even semi-comfortable position in the PWR. RIT and AIC are two of the top three PWR teams in AHA, but still not very high at all (mid-to-high 30's).

I'd only play Drackett one game if he 100% ready and let Ian have the other start. It be interesting to see where RIT would be if they get two wins this weekend in the Pairwise. Even though they probably be the highest and latest rank in the pairwise, they still are probably going to have to win their way into the NCAAs.

It's about as much of a sure thing as possible that the AHA will be an auto-bid only conference again this year. I can't imagine a team making the jump from #34 to the top 10 - 15 in 5 weeks, especially if their schedule is loaded with bottom-half AHA teams. Two wins over a bubble team in ASU (although likely off the bubble if they don't win against the Tigers and Yellowjackets) would help, but likely be nowhere near enough to move upwards in the rankings.

 

[Tom Naeger]

Re: >>> RIT Tigers 2018/2019 - Time For The Tigers to Roar <<<

It's about as much of a sure thing as possible that the AHA will be an auto-bid only conference again this year. I can't imagine a team making the jump from #34 to the top 10 - 15 in 5 weeks, especially if their schedule is loaded with bottom-half AHA teams. Two wins over a bubble team in ASU (although likely off the bubble if they don't win against the Tigers and Yellowjackets) would help, but likely be nowhere near enough to move upwards in the rankings.

I agree, if RIT wins all the remaining regular season games and ASU, Colgate, Mass-Lowell, and Northeastern wins the rest of their games I think at best it could put RIT on the bubble around. I'm thinking they be around 20, if they had pulled out a tie or win at Northeastern, maybe you'd be talking a possibility...

Of course I am not saying you throw away the game, but I would use it to try things you may not try if you had to have the game.

 

[jflory81]

You know I'm going to stop talking about a teams flaws or say they aren't doing so well. AIC is preparing a big pile of jurassic park dinosaur droppings that I need to eat. And as soon as I gave up on Bentley they start playing well. All though I still hold that if RIT was more with it they get at least 2 points last weekend, but the sweep last weekend sure makes up for it.

Forgive me, but I do have to give credit to Jablonski for getting the guys together and getting that 2nd goal call correct. Maybe a little to liberal at times, but I am actually fine withe the game they called Saturday.

This weekend will be a good test to gauge where the team will be at if they make the NCAAs. Arizona state is right on the bubble and frankly needs these two teams against the highest AHA ranked team in the Pairwise. I'd only play Drackett one game if he 100% ready and let Ian have the other start. It be interesting to see where RIT would be if they get two wins this weekend in the Pairwise. Even though they probably be the highest and latest rank in the pairwise, they still are probably going to have to win their way into the NCAAs.

If RIT can get a sweep of last place Holy Cross they really be in a brawl for a regular season championship. Air Force, AIC, and RIT all have favorable schedule. SHU has had their number lately, but not blowing anyone else away. RMU seems to finally be having an off year, and RIT does seem to play them well at the GPC. Niagara is holding on, but they don't seem to match up well against RIT. And Canisius seems to only show up this year for North Dakota. If they can get a sweep on Holy Cross and spilt the rest of the series, including one of the last two games (Nia/Can) they should be in the top three and gives them as good chance to WIN a home playoff series to head to Buffalo, which should be a war... Buckle Up!

I thought the officiating was god awful Saturday night. Inconsistent application of the rules from period to period, with no real clue how to maintain control of the game as an official. They went to replay for the wrong hit (I'm not convinced the hit on Brown they actually went to replay for was even a penalty, while the 1st period hit should have been looked at again and probably should have been 5).

The goal call was a no-brainer that absolutely did not need to take as long as it did. It was so obvious Army never had possession of the puck that I feel like the Army bench had to have been arguing something else.

I agree that they're in the title race, which is nice to see, and the schedule coming in should be managable.

 

[LtPowers]

Re: >>> RIT Tigers 2018/2019 - Time For The Tigers to Roar <<<

Two wins over a bubble team in ASU (although likely off the bubble if they don't win against the Tigers and Yellowjackets) would help, but likely be nowhere near enough to move upwards in the rankings.

Remember, how you do against specific teams only matters for the Quality Wins component. The main PWR advantage of two games against ASU is their very good strength of schedule -- and we get the benefit of that whether we win or lose.


Powers &8^]

 

[komey1]

Re: >>> RIT Tigers 2018/2019 - Time For The Tigers to Roar <<<

Remember, how you do against specific teams only matters for the Quality Wins component. The main PWR advantage of two games against ASU is their very good strength of schedule -- and we get the benefit of that whether we win or lose.


Powers &8^]

Wins can help in the Common Opponent comparison.

 

[TigerFan86-87]

Re: >>> RIT Tigers 2018/2019 - Time For The Tigers to Roar <<<

The main PWR advantage of two games against ASU is their very good strength of schedule -- and we get the benefit of that whether we win or lose.
Powers &8^]

SOS will drop a bit once they play RIT and AIC...
...but then go up after playing Minnesota, so maybe a wash.

 

[LtPowers]

Re: >>> RIT Tigers 2018/2019 - Time For The Tigers to Roar <<<

Wins can help in the Common Opponent comparison.

Ah, you're right. I forgot about that one.


Powers &8^]

 

[Ed Trefzger]

Re: >>> RIT Tigers 2018/2019 - Time For The Tigers to Roar <<<

The only common opponent RIT will have with Arizona State is AIC. So the best RIT can hope to do from this weekend in the PairWise is to pick up a comparison point with Arizona State after AIC plays them next weekend. So if RIT goes at least 1-0-1 and AIC does worse than that, RIT will win two of three comparisons with Arizona State (head-to-head and common opponents).

 

[TigerFan86-87]

Re: >>> RIT Tigers 2018/2019 - Time For The Tigers to Roar <<<

The only common opponent RIT will have with Arizona State is AIC. So the best RIT can hope to do from this weekend in the PairWise is to pick up a comparison point with Arizona State after AIC plays them next weekend. So if RIT goes at least 1-0-1 and AIC does worse than that, RIT will win two of three comparisons with Arizona State (head-to-head and common opponents).

But RIT will have ASU as a common opponent with anyone else on the Sun Devils' schedule, such as Cornell, BC, BU, Minnesota, etc.
Not that it will ultimately matter much. Flipping enough comparisons with 16 to 21 teams at this point of the season is not likely.

 

[Ed Trefzger]

Re: >>> RIT Tigers 2018/2019 - Time For The Tigers to Roar <<<

But RIT will have ASU as a common opponent with anyone else on the Sun Devils' schedule, such as Cornell, BC, BU, Minnesota, etc.
Not that it will ultimately matter much. Flipping enough comparisons with 16 to 21 teams at this point of the season is not likely.

It's unlikely to change many, if any. If you only have two comparisons, RPI and common opponents, then if you win common opponents but are lower in RPI, you each win one comparison. Since RPI is the tiebreaker, you can't move up.

 

[jflory81]

Re: >>> RIT Tigers 2018/2019 - Time For The Tigers to Roar <<<

I don't really see much chance of moving up to an at-large bid, even in a best-case scenario of winning every game (10 regular season + 3 playoffs) until the AHA championship. In that case, it's unlikely their strength of schedule will improve (their remaining regular season opponents currently have a combined winning percentage of .417, much less than RIT's current strength of schedule), and in conference play the opponents-opponents segment isn't likely to change much either (certainly not enough to counteract the negative effects of the weak schedule coming in). So most if not all of our RPI improvement will have to come from improvement in our own winning percentage.

Well, going 13-1-0 the rest of the way (again, best case scenario where we would still need an at-large bid) improves our winning percentage from .565 to .697 (improvement of .132). Our own winning percentage counts 25% towards the RPI, so that would result in an improvement of about .033 in our RPI number, which would get us to .530, which is only good for 17th as the RPI standings currently stand.

Obviously this is all quick back of the hand calculations, so maybe I'm missing something that would help (bad win adjustment in our favor? Other teams' RPI naturally regressing to the .500 mean?), but from my eyes, even the most pie in the sky optimistic projection has us on the outside looking in using RPI. Although 14 wins in a row could see us avoid the #1 overall seed in the tournament

 

[Ed Trefzger]

Re: >>> RIT Tigers 2018/2019 - Time For The Tigers to Roar <<<

According to Jim Dahl's website, RIT can still hit 14 or 15 in the PWR by winning out (he doesn't include any playoffs in that). So the Tigers are not mathematically eliminated, but would have to go on a great streak to get there. https://collegehockeyranked.com/forecast/pwrbywins/

 

[jflory81]

Re: >>> RIT Tigers 2018/2019 - Time For The Tigers to Roar <<<

According to Jim Dahl's website, RIT can still hit 14 or 15 in the PWR by winning out (he doesn't include any playoffs in that). So the Tigers are not mathematically eliminated, but would have to go on a great streak to get there. https://collegehockeyranked.com/forecast/pwrbywins/

Sure, but I counted a loss in the playoffs in there, because if we win out, we're in the tournament anyway.

EDIT: Ah, I see, that's only taking into account already scheduled games, not the ones that we will have to play in the AHA playoffs (which you did explicitly say...DOH!). And to be clear, even there he has us at only a combined 19.2% chance to be top 16 even if we win all 10 regular season games remaining. (0.3% to be 13, 1.6% to be 14, 4.9% to be 15, and 12.4% to be 16). So even with the 10 game winning streak, we'd have about a 2% chance to be in the top 14, and a 7% chance to be top 15.

 

[Ed Trefzger]

Re: >>> RIT Tigers 2018/2019 - Time For The Tigers to Roar <<<

ICYMI, this week's Atlantic Hockey feature is on RIT: https://www.uscho.com/2019/01/30/ri...ekend-against-nationally-ranked-arizona-state

 

[Russell Jaslow]

Re: >>> RIT Tigers 2018/2019 - Time For The Tigers to Roar <<<

I'm getting a kick out of the fact that of all teams flying into Rochester during subzero temperatures, it's Arizona State.

 

[bakdraft21]

Re: >>> RIT Tigers 2018/2019 - Time For The Tigers to Roar <<<

I'm getting a kick out of the fact that of all teams flying into Rochester during subzero temperatures, it's Arizona State.

Maybe they will bring some warm weather with them…

 

[TigerFan86-87]

Re: >>> RIT Tigers 2018/2019 - Time For The Tigers to Roar <<<

I'm getting a kick out of the fact that of all teams flying into Rochester during subzero temperatures, it's Arizona State.

It is amusing. It would be even better if they had to come in to play last night and tonight.
When you look at their roster, they do have 10 Canadiens, 2 Latvians, a Swede and an Alaskan. This certainly won't bother them... although I'm guessing they chose to play in Phoenix for a reason. They do have two players from Arizona and one from Nevada. Those guys really really don't want anything to do with this weather.