>> RIT Tigers 2011-12 Part II: Making Some Noise at the House that Roars <<

[lmg6841]

Re: >> RIT Tigers 2011-12 Part II: Making Some Noise at the House that Roars <<

Re: >> RIT Tigers 2011-12 Part II: Making Some Noise at the House that Roars <<

It says a lot about our pedigree though that a 3rd seed, first round bye is disappointing. Teams like AIC are thrilled to finish 9th!

Looking at college hockey as a whole, the way I see it is that we had a hard time holding onto 3rd place in the weakest D1 conference.

 

[blazer777]

Re: >> RIT Tigers 2011-12 Part II: Making Some Noise at the House that Roars <<

Re: >> RIT Tigers 2011-12 Part II: Making Some Noise at the House that Roars <<

Looking at college hockey as a whole, the way I see it is that we had a hard time holding onto 3rd place in the weakest D1 conference.

I think that has to do more with scheduling than anything else. Most of the other conferences dont' have their top 6 teams playing each other going into the last three weekends.

17 OOC wins this year, most of them on the road too While we're not there yet, we're getting close to not being the weakest in D1.

 

[MattS]

Re: >> RIT Tigers 2011-12 Part II: Making Some Noise at the House that Roars <<

Re: >> RIT Tigers 2011-12 Part II: Making Some Noise at the House that Roars <<

I think they got votes for winning their conference but if you look at the teams behind them, even though they have a higher RPI and PWR, their records within their conferences are not stellar.

This is probably the voters (bad) reasoning.

Anybody know where one could find the rankings at this time over the last few years to see where the AHA Season Champion was ranked?

Here you go:

2011-12: Air Force 20th
2010-11: RIT 23rd
2009-10: RIT 23rd
2008-09: Air Force 21st
2007-08: Army 29th
2006-07 RIT 22nd

I didn't go back any farther than that because the league was so different before then.

 

[MattS]

Re: >> RIT Tigers 2011-12 Part II: Making Some Noise at the House that Roars <<

Re: >> RIT Tigers 2011-12 Part II: Making Some Noise at the House that Roars <<

While we're not there yet, we're getting close to not being the weakest in D1.

The AHA as a whole still has a long ways to go to reach the ECAC. Based upon current KRACH rankings (which is the best ranking system) the average rank for each conference:


CCHA: 14
HE: 20
WCHA: 20
ECAC: 37
AHA: 50

 

[TigerFan86-87]

Re: >> RIT Tigers 2011-12 Part II: Making Some Noise at the House that Roars <<

Re: >> RIT Tigers 2011-12 Part II: Making Some Noise at the House that Roars <<

17 OOC wins this year, most of them on the road too While we're not there yet, we're getting close to not being the weakest in D1.

17 wins out of something like 83 games? Not all that close, really. The fact that most were on the road is a function of the fact that most OOC games are on the road. Also... The AHA OOC record was 17-58-8 while ECAC's was 49-48-19, including a 25-7-8 record versus AHA opponents. Since ECAC is widely considered the "weakest" of the big four (i.e. 24-41-14 record vs. non-AHA opponents) and AHA is nowhere close to them, then...

 

[RIT Winters]

Re: >> RIT Tigers 2011-12 Part II: Making Some Noise at the House that Roars <<

Re: >> RIT Tigers 2011-12 Part II: Making Some Noise at the House that Roars <<

The biggest difference is by far the bottom half of the league. I don't think there is any doubt that the top 6 teams in AHA this year could go to ECAC and be successful. Not winning the league or anything, but not being terrible either. AHA is dragged down by teams like AIC, Army, perennial bottom dwellers who get destroyed OOC.

If you look at the records of the top 6 OOC it's a lot less terrible. Still not a winning %, but a lot closer than the league as a whole. ECAC has stronger teams from top to bottom so overall it looks a lot better, but the teams that RIT is losing against (mostly) and fighting for position against are all teams that would succeed outside of the AHA.

 

[MattS]

Re: >> RIT Tigers 2011-12 Part II: Making Some Noise at the House that Roars <<

Re: >> RIT Tigers 2011-12 Part II: Making Some Noise at the House that Roars <<

If you look at the records of the top 6 OOC it's a lot less terrible. Still not a winning %, but a lot closer than the league as a whole. ECAC has stronger teams from top to bottom so overall it looks a lot better, but the teams that RIT is losing against (mostly) and fighting for position against are all teams that would succeed outside of the AHA.

Huh? Well, yes, maybe "less terrible" is the best way to put it. By my quick count the top 6 teams (by KRACH) in the league are 11-25-3 in OOC games. While those 6 teams would be better in the ECAC than the bottom AHA teams I still think they would be middle of the pack at best. And in the Top 3 conferences, bottom 3rd for sure.

I am basing this on the following for the top 6 teams:

Signature AHA win: Ferris St. (3rd KRACH)
Very Good Wins: NoDak, Denver, Lake Superior, Colorado College (12, 14, 19, & 20 in KRACH)
Decent wins: Cornell, Quinnipiac, Colgate, St. Lawrence (21, 33, 34, 36)
Should Wins: Brown, UAH (51 & 55 KRACH)

"Good" Losses: Mich, BU, Mich St. (2, 5, 7)
OK Losses: Merrimack, Ohio St., Union (15, 17, 18)
Meh Losses: Cornell, Wisc., Alaska, Neb-O, Mass, Quinnipiac, Colgate (21, 22, 27, 28, 29, 33, 34)
Bad Losses: Clarkson,Alaska - Anch, Dartmouth, RPI (39, 40, 44, 49)

Good Ties: Union
Bad Ties: Princeton, UAH

 

[blazer777]

Re: >> RIT Tigers 2011-12 Part II: Making Some Noise at the House that Roars <<

Re: >> RIT Tigers 2011-12 Part II: Making Some Noise at the House that Roars <<

Huh? Well, yes, maybe "less terrible" is the best way to put it. By my quick count the top 6 teams (by KRACH) in the league are 11-25-3 in OOC games. While those 6 teams would be better in the ECAC than the bottom AHA teams I still think they would be middle of the pack at best. And in the Top 3 conferences, bottom 3rd for sure.

I am basing this on the following for the top 6 teams:

Signature AHA win: Ferris St. (3rd KRACH)
Very Good Wins: NoDak, Denver, Lake Superior, Colorado College (12, 14, 19, & 20 in KRACH)
Decent wins: Cornell, Quinnipiac, Colgate, St. Lawrence (21, 33, 34, 36)
Should Wins: Brown, UAH (51 & 55 KRACH)

"Good" Losses: Mich, BU, Mich St. (2, 5, 7)
OK Losses: Merrimack, Ohio St., Union (15, 17, 18)
Meh Losses: Cornell, Wisc., Alaska, Neb-O, Mass, Quinnipiac, Colgate (21, 22, 27, 28, 29, 33, 34)
Bad Losses: Clarkson,Alaska - Anch, Dartmouth, RPI (39, 40, 44, 49)

Good Ties: Union
Bad Ties: Princeton, UAH

Looks like you're right. Only AFA, HC and RIT had better OOC records this year. MU had more wins too but more losses than years prior so not a banner OOC season.

These teams accounted for 12 of the 17 OOC wins.

W.L.T
<table>
<tr><td width='15%'></td><td width='15%'>2009/2010</td><td width='15%'>2010/2011</td><td width='15%'>2011/2012</td></tr>
<tr><td>RIT</td><td>0.6.0</td><td>1.5.1</td><td>3.4.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>AFA</td><td>0.6.0</td><td>2.4.0</td><td>2.3.1</td></tr>
<tr><td>MU</td><td>0.6.0</td><td>2.3.2</td><td>3.6.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>RMU</td><td>n/a</td><td>5.2.0</td><td>1.5.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>NU</td><td>n/a</td><td>2.2.2</td><td>1.4.2</td></tr>
<tr><td>BLY</td><td>2.3.1</td><td>1.4.1</td><td>0.6.1</td></tr>
<tr><td>HCU</td><td>1.4.1</td><td>1.6.0</td><td>2.5.0</td></tr>

</table>

 

[RIT Winters]

Re: >> RIT Tigers 2011-12 Part II: Making Some Noise at the House that Roars <<

Re: >> RIT Tigers 2011-12 Part II: Making Some Noise at the House that Roars <<

Well when you consider that the top 6 were 11-25-3 and the league as a whole was 17-58-8, that kind of explains my point pretty clearly. Not that 11-25-3 is good, but consider that the vast majority of those games were away games or neutral site games and then maybe it's not quite as bad.

If the top 6 in the league were able to play, say, half of their total OOC games at home, would that number improve? Probably.

The bottom half of the AHA is so notably bad that it drags the entire conference down with it. These aren't the teams that RIT was battling for position the last few weeks of the season. We were playing Air Force, Canisius, RMU, and Niagara. Any one of those teams (except Canisius this year) are teams that are going to be worthy of varying degrees of respect outside of the AHA, and as middle of the pack teams (Bentley, UConn, MHurst) get stronger and stronger it makes our whole league tougher and tougher.

Of course we want to finish first every year and of course we want to go back to the NCAA Regionals, but no team can expect to do that every single year, especially a team that can't offer scholarships! As the Frozen Four gets further and further away in the rear-view mirror, RIT is going to have a harder time getting top of the line recruits (again) and we have to adjust our (realistic) expectations accordingly.

That said, we still beat a lot of **** good teams this year and if we can keep our heads in the game, this team can beat anybody.

 

[TigerFan86-87]

Re: >> RIT Tigers 2011-12 Part II: Making Some Noise at the House that Roars <<

Re: >> RIT Tigers 2011-12 Part II: Making Some Noise at the House that Roars <<

That said, we still beat a lot of **** good teams this year and if we can keep our heads in the game, this team can beat anybody.

Prone to exaggeration, eh?
A lot of **** good teams????
OK, whatever.
I'll give you Ferris State and Air Force (although there are 2 losses to AFA as well), but the rest of the wins would be against **** good AHA teams, mediocre OOC teams or just plain bad teams.
RIT's record:
vs. .500+ teams: 8-8-5
vs. .500+ teams in AHA: 6-5-5
vs. < .500 teams 9-3-1
vs. < .500 teams in AHA 8-2-1
IMHO, even the top teams in AHA would have trouble competing too well in the CCHA, WCHA, or Hockey East night in and night out for an entire season. They may win a few here and there in the ECAC, but with full conference schedules against those teams knowing more about them, the difficulty level would ratchet up a notch or two. I would imagine the top AHA teams battling for a home ice spot in the first round ECAC playoffs and that's about it. Maybe one would surprise now and then and sneak up into the top half every couple seasons. In general, however it would take a leap upwards in overall size, speed and talent level for AHA teams to compete week in and week out October through March on the national stage.

 

[Ed Trefzger]

Re: >> RIT Tigers 2011-12 Part II: Making Some Noise at the House that Roars <<

Re: >> RIT Tigers 2011-12 Part II: Making Some Noise at the House that Roars <<

If the top 6 in the league were able to play, say, half of their total OOC games at home, would that number improve? Probably.

Air Force coach Frank Serratore made that exact point tonight as our guest on USCHO Live.

 

[MattS]

Re: >> RIT Tigers 2011-12 Part II: Making Some Noise at the House that Roars <<

Re: >> RIT Tigers 2011-12 Part II: Making Some Noise at the House that Roars <<

If the top 6 in the league were able to play, say, half of their total OOC games at home, would that number improve? Probably.

It would probably increase but I don't think by that much. Consider the top 6 AHA teams by KRACH were:

Home: 3-7-1
Neutral: 2-4-1
Away: 7-15-0

The KRACH of their opponents was:

Home: 27
Neutral: 23
Away: 27

So this suggest this season that the AHA would be better if they played more at home but not a whole lot better.

Note: I did the math very quickly so there might be a slight mathematical error.

 

[blazer777]

Re: >> RIT Tigers 2011-12 Part II: Making Some Noise at the House that Roars <<

Re: >> RIT Tigers 2011-12 Part II: Making Some Noise at the House that Roars <<

Air Force coach Frank Serratore made that exact point tonight as our guest on USCHO Live.

Tigers had 3 OOC games at home this year, went 1-2.

AFA had 1 OOC game at their rink which they lost to Denver. They played Colorado College at Colorado Springs which you can't really count as a road game. They won that.

 

[blazer777]

Re: >> RIT Tigers 2011-12 Part II: Making Some Noise at the House that Roars <<

Re: >> RIT Tigers 2011-12 Part II: Making Some Noise at the House that Roars <<

Prone to exaggeration, eh?
A lot of **** good teams????
OK, whatever.
I'll give you Ferris State and Air Force (although there are 2 losses to AFA as well), but the rest of the wins would be against **** good AHA teams, mediocre OOC teams or just plain bad teams.
RIT's record:
vs. .500+ teams: 8-8-5
vs. .500+ teams in AHA: 6-5-5
vs. < .500 teams 9-3-1
vs. < .500 teams in AHA 8-2-1
IMHO, even the top teams in AHA would have trouble competing too well in the CCHA, WCHA, or Hockey East night in and night out for an entire season. They may win a few here and there in the ECAC, but with full conference schedules against those teams knowing more about them, the difficulty level would ratchet up a notch or two. I would imagine the top AHA teams battling for a home ice spot in the first round ECAC playoffs and that's about it. Maybe one would surprise now and then and sneak up into the top half every couple seasons. In general, however it would take a leap upwards in overall size, speed and talent level for AHA teams to compete week in and week out October through March on the national stage.

But is this based on the status quo or would you think differnetly if the playing fields were leveled?

Let's say you take the top 6 from ECAC and from AHA and create a new league (EACHA), everybody gets to give scholarships, everybody plays an even number of games at home and away, even some Canadians at AFA, does that change the thinking here that the former AHA teams would do just as well as the top ECAC ones?

Some benefits of this

Expands the talent pool (No offense to the current AHA players)
Even number of high-quality games at home. (Benefits everybody)
East Coast teams playing at the higher elevation of AFA (benefits AFA mainly but if others are struggling there, it keeps the race close)

I suspect the AHA teams would do just as well as the ECAC teams after a few years in this conference.

Looking at the other conferences, I think they would have a higher hill to climb but you never know.

 

[LtPowers]

Re: >> RIT Tigers 2011-12 Part II: Making Some Noise at the House that Roars <<

Re: >> RIT Tigers 2011-12 Part II: Making Some Noise at the House that Roars <<

I suspect the AHA teams would do just as well as the ECAC teams after a few years in this conference.

Yes, but that's hardly the point, is it? If you change all of the available variables to be equal, of course the teams will be more comparable.


Powers &8^]

 

[LtPowers]

Re: >> RIT Tigers 2011-12 Part II: Making Some Noise at the House that Roars <<

Re: >> RIT Tigers 2011-12 Part II: Making Some Noise at the House that Roars <<

They also beat CC during the year which is some 50 points ahead of them.

RIT beat Ferris State. =)


Powers &8^]

 

[blazer777]

Re: >> RIT Tigers 2011-12 Part II: Making Some Noise at the House that Roars <<

Re: >> RIT Tigers 2011-12 Part II: Making Some Noise at the House that Roars <<

Yes, but that's hardly the point, is it? If you change all of the available variables to be equal, of course the teams will be more comparable.


Powers &8^]

No, not really!

But let's say you throw out the scholarships (probably the biggest factor) and just have home-away series equal for each team, the wins and losses would eventually even out.

Teams and players generally adjust to each other the more they play and unless one teams players are increadably skilled year in and year out, any dominance would be diminished.

If you change all of the available variables to be equal, of course the teams will be more comparable.

Powers &8^]

If this was the case, wouldn't there be a 10 to 12 teams in the hunt for first place every year?

 

[blazer777]

Re: >> RIT Tigers 2011-12 Part II: Making Some Noise at the House that Roars <<

Re: >> RIT Tigers 2011-12 Part II: Making Some Noise at the House that Roars <<

RIT beat Ferris State. =)


Powers &8^]

I know, I was there

And after that weekend, they garnered votes while Ferris State dropped in the rankings.

The Tigers then went 7-5-4 while losing to Wisconson, Air Force and Niagara.

The polls are a pretty much based on how you're doing at that time. AFA won the conference regular season and they either beat or split with the top teams in the conference, hence the ride into the polls while not having a much better record that the Tigers. Plus, if you read higher, you would have seen that the AHA season champion hovered near the top 20 for the past few years.

By Air Force getting into the top 20, I think it reflects on the improvement in AHA teams play.

 

[RITProf]

Re: >> RIT Tigers 2011-12 Part II: Making Some Noise at the House that Roars <<

Re: >> RIT Tigers 2011-12 Part II: Making Some Noise at the House that Roars <<

But let's say you throw out the scholarships (probably the biggest factor) ...

I know this is beating a dead horse to this crowd, but scholarships are not the biggest factor (perhaps the coach is???) ... Union is exhibit A (and arguably Cornell is exhibit B).

I think what is needed more is a competitive league (top to bottom) with the historical wins and the facilities to allow scheduling of as many home OOC games as away. Scholarships might help to get there, but they are just one of many variables in the equation.

 

[blazer777]

Re: >> RIT Tigers 2011-12 Part II: Making Some Noise at the House that Roars <<

Re: >> RIT Tigers 2011-12 Part II: Making Some Noise at the House that Roars <<

I know this is beating a dead horse to this crowd, but scholarships are not the biggest factor (perhaps the coach is???) ... Union is exhibit A (and arguably Cornell is exhibit B).

I think what is needed more is a competitive league (top to bottom) with the historical wins and the facilities to allow scheduling of as many home OOC games as away. Scholarships might help to get there, but they are just one of many variables in the equation.

Well said!

What I’ve written is theoretical as it's highly unlikely that any of this would ever be put into place to prove or disprove it.