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Presidential Election Prediction Thread

Re: Presidential Election Prediction Thread

FreshFish said:
In CT, I will try to check the state results and see if, instead of 7 - 0, it would be more like 4 - 3 or 5 - 2. Typically, the "ground game" in Bridgeport, Hartford, and New Haven is enough to carry the state for D, no matter how the rest of the state votes.
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Never seen a national map like that -- it would be great. I guess a fair approximation is the makeup of the House.

Hunting for it on google it seems like a very popular idea on conservative sites. IMO it gives too much power to the state legs who already gerrymander the House districts. Imagine if they could get a 2-for-1 and heist both the House and the White House?

As somebody said about a different topic, it might seem like a good idea now with a systemic House advantage, but someday that worm will turn.
 
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Re: Presidential Election Prediction Thread

Kepler said:
Never seen a national map like that -- it would be great. I guess a fair approximation is the makeup of the House.

Hunting for it on google it seems like a very popular idea on conservative sites. IMO it gives too much power to the state legs who already gerrymander the House districts. Imagine if they could get a 2-for-1 and heist both the House and the White House?

As somebody said about a different topic, it might seem like a good idea now with a systemic House advantage, but someday that worm will turn.
Click to expand...

If it makes our democratic republic closer reflect the populace, I'm good with that, including worm turns.

Re: State legislature powers --> Senators used to be picked by state legislatures, not statewide popular vote. That's worm turn away from the legislatures already.
 
ScoobyDoo said:
No. Higher chance of Trump or people like him. The system we have is the right system.
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I'm ok for the Congressional District = 1 EC vote system however, it would have to come with a massive overhaul of how districts are defined.
 
Re: Presidential Election Prediction Thread

Jimjamesak said:
I'm ok for the Congressional District = 1 EC vote system however, it would have to come with a massive overhaul of how districts are defined.
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I wasn't advocating the change, I was expressing mild curiosity.
 
Re: Presidential Election Prediction Thread

Based on new information, I'm changing my prediction.

I'm flipping FL from Trump to Clinton.

Clinton 288 Trump 250.












In answer to a television interview question, President Obama apparently said, "Illegal aliens don't have to worry about deportation if they vote....voter registration information is not shared with ICE."

I've seen the Democrat "ground game" in action in person....FL will have a surprisingly large plurality.

Oh well, so it goes.
 
Re: Presidential Election Prediction Thread

Uh huh...can I see a source for that quote?
 
Re: Presidential Election Prediction Thread

The Sicatoka said:
If it makes our democratic republic closer reflect the populace, I'm good with that, including worm turns.

Re: State legislature powers --> Senators used to be picked by state legislatures, not statewide popular vote. That's worm turn away from the legislatures already.
Click to expand...

That was one of the key distinctions between a democracy and a republic: having Senators selected by state legislatures was by deliberate design, it anticipated the 10th Amendment.

Notably, it was the Progressives who did away with that rule. Coincidentally, the Progressive in charge at that time actually did write that it was okay deliberately to deceive the people in pursuit of a noble cause, because the people aren't all that bright and lack the capacity to understand subtle distinctions.

The Founders wanted it to be really hard for one faction to gain control. Again notably, it seems like one faction is deliberately doing its best to subvert that purpose, all in pursuit of a noble cause. and of course, in order to implement that noble cause, one has to be in office, and so ....
 
Re: Presidential Election Prediction Thread

Hillary cruising in Palm Beach and Duval. Outpacing Obama '12.
 
Re: Presidential Election Prediction Thread

Drew S. said:
I'm not sure what the final outcome will be but I think Trump will do significantly better than people expect in ME, NH, CO, PA, MI, WI, and MN. It seems to me LePage (ME governor) did much better in the actual voting than the polls leading up to the election and in a lot of ways those elections were similar to this years presidential election. He is similar to Trump and ran against very flawed democrats. They were flawed in different ways than Clinton but flawed nonetheless.
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Well done.
 
Re: Presidential Election Prediction Thread

There is a difference between what one expects and what one wants. If the weather forecast says cold and rainy, I am going to bring a windbreaker and umbrella, even if I'd rather have warm and sunny.


D*mn, I wish I had not chickened out in my original prediction. WI, MI, OH, PA, <strike>FL</strike>[oops]. 279-259 was actually on the low side.
 
Re: Presidential Election Prediction Thread

The Sicatoka said:
Watch just 3 things:

- The ME 2 district
- PA
- NC

If those all go to Clinton the night's done early.
If two of those three go Trump, suddenly you're watching FL and OH. <-- If those go Trump, you then look at VA and MI (believe it or not).
Click to expand...

Missed by that much ...

(I went VA not knowing WI could be in play.)
 
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