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Presidential Election Prediction Thread

Re: Presidential Election Prediction Thread

Drew S. said:
Ice cream snickers bar...If there is one thing that I took from this election it is that the media is completely out of touch with a lot of the country.
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Because it takes a college degree to work in the media.

What exactly should they have done? Given credence to flatout lies and BS just because that is what people wanted to hear?
 
Re: Presidential Election Prediction Thread

Anyone notice how Clinton can't get the form of government correct? It is a Constitutional Republic, NOT a democracy.
 
Re: Presidential Election Prediction Thread

MaizeRage said:
What exactly should they have done? Given credence to flatout lies and BS just because that is what people wanted to hear?
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That sounds exactly like The New York Times! "DJT is such a danger that we will drop all pretense of objectivity and work actively to defeat him, even if it means slanting news stories accordingly." [paraphrase, they said pretty much that though].

DJT is a flawed human being with both unique talents and skills, and also some distasteful habits. Only half of that person was described by the mainstream media.

Seriously, he was called a "misogynist" yet all he did was call women names (the same way he treats men), and exaggerate stories of his supposed sexual prowess in order to show off and brag. That got all the headlines; yet in practice he also hired and promoted competent women (ignored by the mainstream, noticed though by Ivanka's many fans; who voted for DJT anyway not because they wanted him but because they admired her).

He said he would protect the LGBTQ community from terrorists, yet the mainstream media described him as "homophobic" without any evidence at all; yet because it so easily fit the narrative "Trump is a monster" it was willingly accepted anyway.

There was plenty of lies and plenty of BS from both sides to go around.
 
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Re: Presidential Election Prediction Thread

Did any pollster predict Trump winning?
 
walrus said:
Did any pollster predict Trump winning?
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/education/two-college-seniors-got-the-election-right-when-almost-everyone-else-got-it-wrong/2016/11/09/81c25706-a52b-11e6-8042-f4d111c862d1_story.html?postshare=7771478736189269&tid=ss_tw

Not exactly what you're looking for, I suppose, but figured I'd pass along. Also, sorry for the link not linking, mobile copy/pasting difficulties apparently.
 
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Re: Presidential Election Prediction Thread

unofan said:
LA Times still got it wrong since it was a national poll, and Clinton won the national vote.
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Come off the democracy crap. This is a Constitutional Republic. If you want a democracy, ex-patriate and find a democracy so you can be happy. Just don't come running back when you find yourself with the wrong mob.
 
Re: Presidential Election Prediction Thread

walrus said:
Did any pollster predict Trump winning?
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Nate Silver at 538 kept saying that Trump has a higher chance of winning than most people realized; his model gave Trump about a 30% chance. He also said that Trump had a better chance of winning the election than the Cubs had of coming back from a 3-1 deficit to win the World Series.
 
Re: Presidential Election Prediction Thread

FreshFish said:
Nate Silver at 538 kept saying that Trump has a higher chance of winning than most people realized; his model gave Trump about a 30% chance. He also said that Trump had a better chance of winning the election than the Cubs had of coming back from a 3-1 deficit to win the World Series.
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I can't help but wonder if Nate's models were actually pointing even closer to a Trump victory but the team let their cognitive bias shift the models, "No way this can be right, we need to compensate for this."

I know they take into account demographics and predicted turnout and whatnot.
 
dxmnkd316 said:
I can't help but wonder if Nate's models were actually pointing even closer to a Trump victory but the team let their cognitive bias shift the models, "No way this can be right, we need to compensate for this."

I know they take into account demographics and predicted turnout and whatnot.
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I don't think so, if only because he issued a mea culpa after the primaries for essentially doing that. He wasn't going to get burned twice in the same cycle for the same thing.
 
Re: Presidential Election Prediction Thread

over 87k ballots cast in MI that were left blank for president (tD is up by what? 15k).
 
Re: Presidential Election Prediction Thread

And you know what? I have zero problem that. I even encouraged people to leave it blank if they can't in good conscience vote for either candidate.
 
Re: Presidential Election Prediction Thread

I don't really buy into the tallest pigmy argument (so and so was very much wrong but less wrong than somebody else). They all got it wrong. Silver had 99/100 states in the previous two elections. This time he was off by a handful of states...many of the important ones that were to determine the election.

I do believe that if you spent time looking at early voting you could have spotted danger. Everyone was focused on how great Nevada was doing for Hillary...but they still gave it to Trump and Hillary won it anyways.

There were plenty of red flags in Florida and more importantly Ohio. BO won them both by the slimmest of margins in the end. Hillary was running far behind him in both states in early voting. Ohio should have been alarming as its so similar to surrounding states and is not just a bellwether for the US...but also for the industrial Midwest.

They should be forgiven for earlier misses...but as soon as the early voting came in, they should have known. They're experts at this.
 
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