Preliminary & Ongoing Pairwise Watch and 2013 NCAA Tournament Musing Thread

[OnMAA]

Re: Preliminary & Ongoing Pairwise Watch and 2013 NCAA Tournament Musing Thread

Rather than simple irony, I'm going to go ahead and consider it a full fledged and blatant flaw in the formula.

Rather than blaming the system, you can lay the blame at the Gophers. One uber dominant team and a less than stellar NC record, compared to other years, by the rest of the WHCA lot vs. TUC teams and this is the result.

Wisco is 3-5 in TUC, 3-1 if you eliminate the Gopher games.
ND is 2-8 in TUC, 2-4 if you eliminate the Gopher games.

Even if you take out the Gopher games, ND would still be on the outside looking in. They would move up one spot based on their improved TUC record, but still be behind Wisco and MC.

Bottom line. If ND splits with Wisco instead of going 1-3 they would have a much better shot at it. The way it stands now, they probably have to get to the WCHA final to make it in and even that might not be enough. They have to pass Wisco in the pairwise and hope there are no upset auto-bid winners for them to make it in.

Moral of the story....Win the key games, rather than blaming the system....or Blame those Gophers....Take your pick

 

[brookyone]

Re: Preliminary & Ongoing Pairwise Watch and 2013 NCAA Tournament Musing Thread

Moral of the story....Win the key games, rather than blaming the system....or Blame those Gophers....Take you pick

I guess those "key games" for Mercyhurst weren't actually all that key. Fortunate for them. I'll continue to blame the formula as supremely flawed and basically, a POS.

 

[ARM]

Re: Preliminary & Ongoing Pairwise Watch and 2013 NCAA Tournament Musing Thread

On the women's side team A wins this comparison 30-1 to 1-2.

I'm not sure that it still works that way. The committee placing Minnesota above Mercyhurst two years ago hinted that they did consider the number of games played against common opponents rather than just blind arithmetic.

Rather than blaming the system, you can lay the blame at the Gophers.

It's more of a case of the WCHA schedule. Every year some team falls victim to it. Because you play teams four times, a team that is third takes a beating record-wise from the two teams above it. The CHA has a similar issue, but we've yet to see a season where the second CHA team is really in the national picture. It softens a bit with three games in Hockey East, and teams in the ECAC really don't face the same problem with only a double round robin.

 

[Eeyore]

Re: Preliminary & Ongoing Pairwise Watch and 2013 NCAA Tournament Musing Thread

Moral of the story....Win the key games, rather than blaming the system....or Blame those Gophers....Take you pick

How do you define what are the key games? For North Dakota, there are really ten of them: four against Wisconsin; two against Clarkson; and four against Minnesota State. If they beat the Mavericks instead of tying them, then the COP criterion against Mercyhurst is a tie and RPI becomes the only important one, since it would be used to resolve a tie. You get the same effective result if Mercyhurst loses a game to them. If you are going to put together a system in which you want to isolate certain games as having a disproportionate effect on who makes the NCAA tournament, those against Wisconsin and Clarkson make sense. But, when looking at North Dakota's schedule at the time the games were played, what rationale is there for thinking that Minnesota State is a make-or-break opponent?

Common opponents can be a good way to help decide who should go to the tournament, but only if there is more intersection of schedules. When it is determined solely by playing less than a handful of games against a single, weaker opponent it is meaningless. Why does North Dakota going 3-0-1 against MSU tell us more than Mercyhurst going 1-3 against a Robert Morris team that can't seem to beat anyone else?

I say all of this as someone who will be pleased if North Dakota fails to make the NCAA tournament. That's my desired outcome. It doesn't change the fact that each of the three criteria that goes into PWR is badly flawed.

 

[OnMAA]

Re: Preliminary & Ongoing Pairwise Watch and 2013 NCAA Tournament Musing Thread

I guess those "key games" for Mercyhurst weren't actually all that key. Fortunate for them. I'll continue to blame the formula as supremely flawed and basically, a POS.

Well MC is 2-3 in TUC, better than both Wisco and UND. Take out the Gopher games, and Wisco moves past MC, but UND does not. If UND splits with Wisco and beats Clarkson twice on home ice we would not be having this discussion. So staying with my premise, win your key games, rather than blaming the system. Everyone knows the rules going in.

 

[OnMAA]

Re: Preliminary & Ongoing Pairwise Watch and 2013 NCAA Tournament Musing Thread

It's more of a case of the WCHA schedule. Every year some team falls victim to it. Because you play teams four times, a team that is third takes a beating record-wise from the two teams above it. The CHA has a similar issue, but we've yet to see a season where the second CHA team is really in the national picture. It softens a bit with three games in Hockey East, and teams in the ECAC really don't face the same problem with only a double round robin.

Agree. My post was partly TIC to get the discussion going. Surprised Granddaddy has not chimed in yet. Maybe he is too busy with "Family Day" up here in Canuck land.

 

[David De Remer]

Re: Preliminary & Ongoing Pairwise Watch and 2013 NCAA Tournament Musing Thread

-- As flawed as the Record vs. TUC criteria is, I don't think it's going to matter that UND knocked UMD or OSU out of the top 12. It's all about passing Wisconsin to get #8 in the PWR, which likely happens if UND beats Wisconsin in the WCHA semifinals (and gets the job done against the rest of the WCHA relative to Wisconsin, and if UND doesn't, what's there to complain about?). The Northeastern vs. UND comparison probably is not going to matter.

-- The men have legislated that the common opponents criteria is based on averaging the win pct. against each opponent. The women have not explicitly done that, by the criteria is sufficiently vague and the women's committee has enough discretion so that the committee does not need to change its legislation. As ARM's reference to Mercyhurst and Minnesota suggests, for years the women's committee has de facto been evaluating the common opponents like the men do now.

 

[brookyone]

Re: Preliminary & Ongoing Pairwise Watch and 2013 NCAA Tournament Musing Thread

So staying with my premise, win your key games, rather than blaming the system. Everyone knows the rules going in.

And in the case of Mercyhurst, conveniently omit particular losses as key games apparently. Everyone knows the rules going in. Well swell...that means the system is just peachy then.

In deference to your personal anti WCHA bias "the system" surely is just peachy.

 

[granddaddyscout]

Re: Preliminary & Ongoing Pairwise Watch and 2013 NCAA Tournament Musing Thread

Happy to comment, the bottom line is that there may not be a better system, but the one we have is clearly biased. The WCHA is at a disadvantage because they are much stronger top to bottom than the other conferences and because they play 4 games against each opponent. There have been a lot of comments about the WCHA teams playing Lindenwood, but none about the East coast teams playing the likes of Brown, Yale, Vermont, UConn, Maine, etc... MSU, SCSU, and BSU are much stronger teams than the bottom dwellers in the east but they are rated similarly because they play UM, UW, UND, UMD, etc… 4 times each. This year is particularly onerous because Minny is so strong compared to all other teams everywhere, while the teams in the East in my ever so humble opinion are down compared to the last two years. So the result is that there are more good teams in the east, but no great ones and the west has several good teams as well but with one really great team. The WCHA will once again win the crown, all the system can do is limit the number of WCHA teams in the mix and block a two WCHA team final game.

 

[myStuff]

Re: Preliminary & Ongoing Pairwise Watch and 2013 NCAA Tournament Musing Thread

WCHA fans are very biased in their opinion as to the strength of that league...I would put money on Mercyhurst easily defeating Wisconsin, Clarkson and UND..however...those with an opinion prefer to look down on any team east of Lake Mich..it's rather pathetic

 

[ARM]

Re: Preliminary & Ongoing Pairwise Watch and 2013 NCAA Tournament Musing Thread

I would put money on Mercyhurst easily defeating Wisconsin, Clarkson and UND..

Given Mercyhurst did play Clarkson at home and lost one and won a close one, I don't know that would necessarily qualify as "easily".

 

[brookyone]

Re: Preliminary & Ongoing Pairwise Watch and 2013 NCAA Tournament Musing Thread

WCHA fans are very biased in their opinion as to the strength of that league...I would put money on Mercyhurst easily defeating Wisconsin, Clarkson and UND..however...those with an opinion prefer to look down on any team east of Lake Mich..it's rather pathetic

I'll take the bets per UW and UND should it ever come to pass. It's been so evident you have no bias where Mercyhurst is concerned...

 

[myStuff]

Re: Preliminary & Ongoing Pairwise Watch and 2013 NCAA Tournament Musing Thread

Given Mercyhurst did play Clarkson at home and lost one and won a close one, I don't know that would necessarily qualify as "easily".

Yes they did...and I would still put money on Mercyhurst taking the win

 

[FiveHoleFrenzy]

Re: Preliminary & Ongoing Pairwise Watch and 2013 NCAA Tournament Musing Thread

WCHA fans are very biased in their opinion as to the strength of that league...I would put money on Mercyhurst easily defeating Wisconsin, Clarkson and UND..however...those with an opinion prefer to look down on any team east of Lake Mich..it's rather pathetic

Evidently, fear the Lakers (except if your Robert Morris).

 

[OnMAA]

Re: Preliminary & Ongoing Pairwise Watch and 2013 NCAA Tournament Musing Thread

In deference to your personal anti WCHA bias "the system" surely is just peachy.

Where do you come up with the fact I have an Anti WCHA bias ?. Admittedly biased towards favoring the ECAC, but by no means do I have a anti WCHA bias. Just merely stating facts. For what it is worth, in my opinion there should be at least two, if not three WCHA teams in the tournament. Like you, personally believe MC is overrated and UND and Wisco should both be ahead of them. However, staying with my premise that everyone knows the rules going in. Not unlike years past, the number three team from a league in the pairings is at risk of not getting in. Therefore the match-ups between those No 2 and No 3 teams become key. Right now UND is 1-3 vs the Badgers, and that has them on the outside looking in. If UND manages to get ahead of Wisco they are in. That means at a minimum they have to beat Wisco in the semi's of the WCHA tourney.

 

[Blackbeard]

Re: Preliminary & Ongoing Pairwise Watch and 2013 NCAA Tournament Musing Thread

I'll take the bets per UW and UND should it ever come to pass.

I was about to post something similar and then read your post. You figure you could make some room for someone else to get in on the action? You gotta love shooting big fish in a small barrel.

 

[myStuff]

Re: Preliminary & Ongoing Pairwise Watch and 2013 NCAA Tournament Musing Thread

Evidently, fear the Lakers (except if your Robert Morris).

Robert Morris will likely never come close to beating Mercyhurst again in the years to come..yes they came up on the top side of the scoreboard
this year but it was a combination of injury to Mercyhurst, sheer luck for Robert Morris, (jaw dropping reffing @ RMU) and an unbridled hatred for Mercyhurst on behalf of RMU.
Coach Colontino from RMU recruited nearly every player at Mercyhurst...the last match up is, with out a doubt, a clear example of the Mercyhurst Ladies and coaching staff putting RMU back in their place

Regardless...The Lakers are a team to be feared...they have the potential to take nearly every team in the top 8..(I said "nearly")
My personal opinion .... Minn/Cornell in the final

I predict a whole bunch of blah blah blah ....etc but I base my opinion strictly on knowledge of the game not on rah! rah! rah! ..Ame O Jogo!!!

 

[Eeyore]

Re: Preliminary & Ongoing Pairwise Watch and 2013 NCAA Tournament Musing Thread

However, staying with my premise that everyone knows the rules going in.

Just because you know the rules going in doesn't mean that they aren't wrong. You keep going on about winning the key games without addressing that which games are key is arbitrary, often not predictable at the time they are played, sometimes come in amounts too small to have any meaning, and can involve third party teams that do not in and of themselves merit much "keyness." You talk about how North Dakota would be in better shape if they had just put together a better record against Wisconsin without ever addressing the fact that going 3-0-1 against Minnesota State is just as pivotal in where they sit? Again I ask why it is that North Dakota's games against MSU ought to be more key than Mercyhurst's games against Robert Morris, a team that holds a similar position in the CHA that MSU holds in the WCHA? And they are not just more key, they are vastly so, to the point that an .875 winning percentage in those games hurts North Dakota more than a .250 winning percentage hurts Mercyhurst?

 

[brookyone]

Re: Preliminary & Ongoing Pairwise Watch and 2013 NCAA Tournament Musing Thread

Where do you come up with the fact I have an Anti WCHA bias ?. Admittedly biased towards favoring the ECAC, but by no means do I have a anti WCHA bias. Just merely stating facts. For what it is worth, in my opinion there should be at least two, if not three WCHA teams in the tournament. Like you, personally believe MC is overrated and UND and Wisco should both be ahead of them. However, staying with my premise that everyone knows the rules going in. Not unlike years past, the number three team from a league in the pairings is at risk of not getting in. Therefore the match-ups between those No 2 and No 3 teams become key. Right now UND is 1-3 vs the Badgers, and that has them on the outside looking in. If UND manages to get ahead of Wisco they are in. That means at a minimum they have to beat Wisco in the semi's of the WCHA tourney.

It was you wasn't it...once stating the WCHA's NCAA dynasty thus far was "bad for the sport." Correct me if I'm wrong but I think I'm remembering that right. Maybe I'll put the effort into digging up the comment I know was made by someone.

 

[TonyTheTiger20]

Re: Preliminary & Ongoing Pairwise Watch and 2013 NCAA Tournament Musing Thread

I will contribute to this Mercyhurst-bashing party by stating that as a BC fan, I hope and pray that BC draws the Lakers in the NCAA quarterfinals as it's not too often BC is able to draw a bye to the Frozen Four.

I will also preempt any "ZOMG BUT BC LOST TO MERCYHURST LULZZZZZ" by reminding any Lakers fans with a bad memory of how badly BC dominated them in that game even without Haley Skarupakalifragilisticexpialidocious and if it weren't for that epic goaltending performance BC probably would have had a couple additional field goals, three layups, and a rouge by the time all was said and done.