POTUS Elect Trump I: Get in pu$$y - we're gonna make American great again

[MaizeRage]

Re: POTUS Elect Trump I: Get in pu$$y - we're gonna make American great again

I actually didn't realize they don't employ actual pharmacists for compounding. Most apothecaries do. The general point was that pharmacology is a segment of the economy that is still growing by leaps and bounds. Unlike farriers.
(Perhaps I shouldn't say most, I'm not sure about WalMart either, but anyplace where you can get hormone replacement, etc. has a pharmacist in back doing actual compounding i.e. clinics etc)

And agricultural production will always be important too, but market forces change and less efficient models become obsolete.

 

[joecct]

We are gradually approaching a post-work economy and that is going to be a bigger philosophical leap than even industrialization was. We still have social and moral codes that are tied up with the idea of work as the mark of deserving. Nobody alive right now can wrap their mind around what human cultural mores will be like when people are no longer forced to do stuff they don't want to do in order to eat. We just don't have those ideas yet, much like herders couldn't comprehend farmers and farmers couldn't comprehend factory workers.

We may see "work" -- in the sense of coercion at the point of misery -- end in our lifetimes. Our grandchildren will look at us like we look at serfs.

Kep

While people are pushing electrons around the interwebs, raking off their share, who is going to mow the lawn, fix the car, fix the toilet, furnace, and AC, put out the fires, pick up the trash, maintain order, and teach the children?

We will always need workers.

 

[geezer]

Re: POTUS Elect Trump I: Get in pu$$y - we're gonna make American great again

We are gradually approaching a post-work economy and that is going to be a bigger philosophical leap than even industrialization was. We still have social and moral codes that are tied up with the idea of work as the mark of deserving. Nobody alive right now can wrap their mind around what human cultural mores will be like when people are no longer forced to do stuff they don't want to do in order to eat. We just don't have those ideas yet, much like herders couldn't comprehend farmers and farmers couldn't comprehend factory workers.

We may see "work" -- in the sense of coercion at the point of misery -- end in our lifetimes. Our grandchildren will look at us like we look at serfs.

wait but, "In the sweat of thy face shalt thou eat bread, till thou return unto the ground"

 

[geezer]

Re: POTUS Elect Trump I: Get in pu$$y - we're gonna make American great again

And agricultural production will always be important too, but market forces change and less efficient models become obsolete.

drones and robots can and do already do all that stuff about growing the stuff you make burritos out of for eating in your mouth... It's inevitable but it makes me a little bit sad.

 

[Kepler]

Re: POTUS Elect Trump I: Get in pu$$y - we're gonna make American great again

I generally agree, but I think it's going to take a lot longer than you suggest. But ideally, the conservative party in our country would be arguing for a UBI rather than all our messy social programs. Emailz! set us a long way back in that regard. I also think it is going to take more than a few generations of evolution before our society as a whole has the intellectual curiosity to sustain that. Our forced brushes with not working just brought about heroin/Trump, which isn't good for anybody.

One of the most hard to predict changes will be in the liberal / conservative split. Right now the "work economy" overdetermines the liberal / conservative dichotomy. Liberals are willing to tolerate some freeloaders in order to help the suffering, while conservatives are willing to tolerate some suffering in order to stop the freeloaders. When the concept of "freeloading" itself becomes obsolete, that distinction just won't mean anything anymore. I'm sure there will still be some sort of split between people since that seems to trace all the way to a neuro-biological split. But it will be in a context we literally can't understand or see from here on the other side of the "tunnel."

 

[geezer]

Re: POTUS Elect Trump I: Get in pu$$y - we're gonna make American great again

Kep

While people are pushing electrons around the interwebs, raking off their share, who is going to mow the lawn, fix the car, fix the toilet, furnace, and AC, put out the fires, pick up the trash, maintain order, and teach the children?

We will always need workers.

I'm pushing little geezer to consider either computer science (very interested) or plumbing (less so)
as for that last one, his main teacher seems to be a school-provided ipad loaded up with some common core chicago math nonsense.

 

[Kepler]

Re: POTUS Elect Trump I: Get in pu$$y - we're gonna make American great again

Kep

While people are pushing electrons around the interwebs, raking off their share, who is going to mow the lawn, fix the car, fix the toilet, furnace, and AC, put out the fires, pick up the trash, maintain order, and teach the children?

We will always need workers.

No, we will always need work to be done, but more and more will move out of human control and to robotics, computers, and probably stuff we can't even imagine yet. There is no law that says jobs have to appear in proportion to the population. For example, US manufacturing output is at its all-time high. Manufacturing jobs continue to decline not because of a decline in output, but in a decline in the "human labor ratio" of manufacturing tasks. Machine/AI inputs will continue to increase and eventually slop over into every work segment. Just think of how many jobs have been replaced by computer programs -- not even hardware. Presumably at some point people will be aghast that we ever let human beings drive buses, fly airplanes, fight wars, perform surgery, balance the books, mine coal, etc... Tech just gets faster and more efficient and cheaper, all the way up and down the production system.

 

[The Sicatoka]

Re: POTUS Elect Trump I: Get in pu$$y - we're gonna make American great again

Kep

While people are pushing electrons around the interwebs, raking off their share, who is going to mow the lawn, fix the car, fix the toilet, furnace, and AC, put out the fires, pick up the trash, maintain order, and teach the children?

We will always need workers.

Plumbers and electricians: if you don't have those your happy abode becomes unlivable in no time.

 

[5mn_Major]

Re: POTUS Elect Trump I: Get in pu$$y - we're gonna make American great again

No, Democrats used to be the guys that wore those actual < farm machinery, seed brand, union local > hats, and then moved on to Washington to represent the "little guy". The closest thing I see to that anymore out of the Ds is MN 7th Collin Peterson.

Today a hat is a prop to a D, just like a hat was a prop to Trump. The difference? Trump had the right "sound" while wearing it. Trump preached what the old, pro-union (or pro ND FU person, and that is real) D in the hat would've, and that "message" is best summed up by South Park as: "Dey tuuk ur jeeeerrrrbs!"

I had somebody tell me that the electoral college weighting small states and the general election of Trump was good...simply because food production is important and therefore, farmers should have a disproportionate say in running the country.

Not what I would call a recipe for optimal government.

 

[The Sicatoka]

Re: POTUS Elect Trump I: Get in pu$$y - we're gonna make American great again

No, we will always need work to be done, but more and more will move out of human control and to robotics, computers, and probably stuff we can't even imagine yet. There is no law that says jobs have to appear in proportion to the population. For example, US manufacturing output is at its all-time high. Manufacturing jobs continue to decline not because of a decline in output, but in a decline in the "human labor ratio" of manufacturing tasks. Machine/AI inputs will continue to increase and eventually slop over into every work segment. Just think of how many jobs have been replaced by computer programs -- not even hardware. Presumably at some point people will be aghast that we ever let human beings drive buses, fly airplanes, fight wars, perform surgery, balance the books, mine coal, etc... Tech just gets faster and more efficient and cheaper, all the way up and down the production system.

I do work that automates tasks that are very slow and cumbersome. I worried that what I was doing was costing jobs.

Instead, I found out two things from the folks that run the factories my equipment goes in to:
- their productivity goes up and they end up being able to pay their good workers more, but
- they put in the automation because there's nobody out there willing to work* in their factory so when they find a good one they have to make sure they pay enough to keep them and they do that by ... (see point 1)
I've heard that same chorus from CA to ME, from WA to FL.

*Defined as show up on time, stay on task, put the cell phone away except for breaks. The work in question is far from strenuous.

 

[The Sicatoka]

Re: POTUS Elect Trump I: Get in pu$$y - we're gonna make American great again

I had somebody tell me that the electoral college weighting small states and the general election of Trump was good...simply because food production is important and therefore, farmers should have a disproportionate say in running the country.

Not what I would call a recipe for optimal government.

We do so many things that are remnants from the agrarian history: Daylight savings time, the public school calendar.

Any of those can be changed by using the process to change public policy.

 

[Kepler]

Re: POTUS Elect Trump I: Get in pu$$y - we're gonna make American great again

wait but, "In the sweat of thy face shalt thou eat bread, till thou return unto the ground"

Tell the rich. People will still do tasks. They'll even still do tasks for money. But they won't have to. Even though the vast majority of humans are still trapped inside a scarcity economy, some have always been able to get clear of it. That number gets higher the better our tech gets. Burundi and Zimbabwe will probably still be trapped in a scarcity economy long after a large part of the world has escaped it.

Why did slavery really die out? Did people get more moral? No, it became cost prohibitive. It was just a non-competitive business model. So it will be with work. There will still be plenty of people who do things, even for money, because they want to. But that isn't work, it's a calling. Priests and artists and stamp collectors will go on pretty much as before. (It's actually going to be tough on the artists who will lose "suffering for their art" as a great way to get laid.)

 

[Kepler]

Re: POTUS Elect Trump I: Get in pu$$y - we're gonna make American great again

Plumbers and electricians: if you don't have those your happy abode becomes unlivable in no time.

And when pipes and wires can fix themselves?

 

[unofan]

I do work that automates tasks that are very slow and cumbersome. I worried that what I was doing was costing jobs.

Instead, I found out two things from the folks that run the factories my equipment goes in to:
- their productivity goes up and they end up being able to pay their good workers more, but
- they put in the automation because there's nobody out there willing to work* in their factory so when they find a good one they have to make sure they pay enough to keep them and they do that by ... (see point 1)
I've heard that same chorus from CA to ME, from WA to FL.

*Defined as show up on time, stay on task, put the cell phone away except for breaks. The work in question is far from strenuous.

Tl;dr: Robots are more efficient than unskilled labor, and they're forced to pay their skilled workers more to keep them.

None of that contradicts the premise that manufacturing jobs are lost primarily to robots, not Mexico.

 

[Rover]

Re: POTUS Elect Trump I: Get in pu$$y - we're gonna make American great again

One of the most hard to predict changes will be in the liberal / conservative split. Right now the "work economy" overdetermines the liberal / conservative dichotomy. Liberals are willing to tolerate some freeloaders in order to help the suffering, while conservatives are willing to tolerate some suffering in order to stop the freeloaders. When the concept of "freeloading" itself becomes obsolete, that distinction just won't mean anything anymore. I'm sure there will still be some sort of split between people since that seems to trace all the way to a neuro-biological split. But it will be in a context we literally can't understand or see from here on the other side of the "tunnel."

I believe in the Star Trek timeline you aspire to poverty wasn't eliminated until the 2200's and only after two cataclysmic nuclear wars a century earlier, and first contact with the Vulcans once the human race achieved warp drive. So, not sure that will happen by the time our grandchildren come along.

But you make a good point initially. Lets say the poor working class became fed up of being played for suckers by Dems and now vote GOP (think places like KY, WVA, and most of the Southeast). Well, last time I checked, life in these places still sucks. The premise a lot of people have with Trump seems to be that 1) he really didn't mean most of the things he said (a possibility), and 2) most of their problems stem from trade deals and illegal immigrants.

Even if Trump makes good on walking away from trade deals and increased deportation of illegals, I'm betting life in these places is still gonna suck. So, do they then hold Trump/GOP accountable or do they go back to wallowing in misery? Should be interesting to see how it plays out.

 

[5mn_Major]

Re: POTUS Elect Trump I: Get in pu$$y - we're gonna make American great again

We do so many things that are remnants from the agrarian history: Daylight savings time, the public school calendar.

Any of those can be changed by using the process to change public policy.

And today's policy challenges are based on people and technology/innovation issues. I don't know that farmers are more adept on addressing those than anyone else.

 

[MaizeRage]

Re: POTUS Elect Trump I: Get in pu$$y - we're gonna make American great again

Plumbers and electricians: if you don't have those your happy abode becomes unlivable in no time.

Funny that not that long ago, indoor plumbing and household electricity would have been considered a "cake" solution to many valid opinion havers.

As for repairs even a coastal elite liberal such as myself has(knock on wood) been able to handle about 95% of home repairs with about ten minutes on YouTube, most of which probably would have required a repairman 5-10 years ago. The other 5%? That's why there's a 'B' in UBI.

I believe in the Star Trek timeline you aspire to poverty wasn't eliminated until the 2200's and only after two cataclysmic nuclear wars a century earlier,

So what you're saying is that we're ahead of schedule?

 

[geezer]

Re: POTUS Elect Trump I: Get in pu$$y - we're gonna make American great again

Tell the rich. People will still do tasks. They'll even still do tasks for money. But they won't have to. Even though the vast majority of humans are still trapped inside a scarcity economy, some have always been able to get clear of it. That number gets higher the better our tech gets. Burundi and Zimbabwe will probably still be trapped in a scarcity economy long after a large part of the world has escaped it.

Why did slavery really die out? Did people get more moral? No, it became cost prohibitive. It was just a non-competitive business model. So it will be with work. There will still be plenty of people who do things, even for money, because they want to. But that isn't work, it's a calling. Priests and artists and stamp collectors will go on pretty much as before. (It's actually going to be tough on the artists who will lose "suffering for their art" as a great way to get laid.)

Here's something that has crossed my mind but haven't discussed before: The mean quality of novel has gone WAY downhill since the Kindle etc. made publishing very cheap. It's getting harder to rely on huge marketing campaigns a la Tom Clancy to find a good read, and I've been burned by some cheap and insincere internet marketing gimmicks pushing ****ty books.
How far will democratization negatively affect quality of art? Is this going to be a bad result of too many idiots with free time, when there's virtually no price to pay for some wannabe to produce something of their own? Who gets to say what is worthwhile for the rest of us to invest in? I don't want access to so many books. I want the people who are putting their heart and soul into it to write the books. And paint. And compose. And sell fishing lures. and design seat cushions. and bike paths. and gardens. Is everything going to be diluted when it's easier to accomplish?

 

[Kepler]

Re: POTUS Elect Trump I: Get in pu$$y - we're gonna make American great again

Even if Trump makes good on walking away from trade deals and increased deportation of illegals, I'm betting life in these places is still gonna suck. So, do they then hold Trump/GOP accountable or do they go back to wallowing in misery? Should be interesting to see how it plays out.

The opposition party always tries to make the election a choice between their fantasy whiteboard future and the irritatingly real present. Next time the Democrats will be able to do that.

Also: people always think they have it worse than they really do. The opposition media runs non-stop gloom and doom stories and nobody ever got re-elected telling people to put their big girl panties on.

Now mix in that Trump actually is incompetent and the GOP actually has no workable solutions to any problems, and yeah, it's not going to go well for them (particularly because the former has already shown he'll throw the latter under the bus if he ever feels any heat).

 

[geezer]

Re: POTUS Elect Trump I: Get in pu$$y - we're gonna make American great again

people always think they have it worse than they really do.

This was a fun read. "In search of the good ol' days"