Patty Kazmaier 2014

[Trillium]

Re: Patty Kazmaier 2014

exactly
nice to see that someone is talking about the other end of the rink, the game isn't only about scoring.
and doesn't playing on a team with only one PP unit, instead of 2 like MN, give many of those players a boost in the scoring race?
just look at the stats, MN forwards have less PP goals than most other players for the simple reason they have twice as many playing on it

here are the +/- of the MN players discussed , and the number of goals scored while they have been on the ice:
Bona +43, 4 goals (!) (0 PP)
McMillan +46, 8 goals (3 PP)
Davis +33, 5 goals (!)(3 PP)
Brandt +39, 9 goals (4 PP)
Ramsey +36, 13 goals (4 PP)
Terry +30, 11 goals (3 PP)
all of them get time on the PP & PK
but note, the goals above (PP) were when they were on the PK unit, so McMillan for example, was on the ice for 11 goals

To me, these stats don't look terribly impressive in terms of speaking to the value of an individual player.

If a team as a whole in so dominant (like Minnesota), with a number of very talented players, the opposing teams get very little puck possession and therefore find difficulty getting shots, much less goals. By dominating puck possession and shots, Minnesota will score a lot, no matter what line you play on because of the depth of talent.

As a result, all players will automatically have a very strong plus/minus. This is really no reflection of their individual abilities when compared versus a player on opposing teams with a much lower plus/minus. What can be revealing however is how a player fares relative to other players on their own team and the overall teams average plus/minus. In the above example, actually Terry looks fairly weak defensively: despite being as offensively talented as she is, her plus/minus significantly lags many of her team mates.

 

[ARM]

In the above example, actually Terry looks fairly weak defensively: despite being as offensively talented as she is, her plus/minus significantly lags many of her team mates.

The line with Terry and Cameranesi is usually matched against the top scoring line of the opponent, and thus, they tend to be on for more goals against. Once Terry was moved to center a line just over two years ago, it negatively impacted her personal stats but has made the team much, much stronger.

But I agree with you in that it is hard for any player to win awards on a team that has a number of players at roughly the same level of production.

 

[FredsDeadFriend]

Re: Patty Kazmaier 2014

This isn't how the Kazmaier is awarded, but I think that Kelly Terry has had the best season of anyone to date. She doesn't have quite as many overall points as some others, but her role isn't that of a scorer. She's the best back checker I've ever seen, and she ranks up there with the best forecheckers as well. As far as Minnesota forwards go, I think she has had the best performance in the clutch. She had the primary assist on the tying goal in the first Wisconsin game, scored the game's only goals in the 2-0 win, and scored the first goal and made the play for the third goal in Fill the Bowl. She plays if she's hurting and plays hard all the time, no matter the score. So I'd give her my Erika Lawler Award, honoring the player that has made the most plays to win hockey games.

Hey Arm, I guess my question is, why isn't that how the Kaz is awarded?! I mean, I think its significant that Terry, out of the Top 11 scorers, has the WORST points per game average vs opponents with losing records, yet has the BEST points per game average vs opponents with winning records. That seems to indicate that she rises to the occasion and steps up when she feels she is needed. As to an explanation of why she doesn't light up the scoreboard vs lesser competition? That could be simply that she's experienced, has good leadership qualities, is an all-around team player and simply lets her teammates shine against those lesser opponents maybe? I doubt that its a case of being lazy and playing down to the lesser competition?

It would be interesting to take a more comprehensive look at individual games, for some of those lesser opponents rose up once or twice and made the Gophers work to win those games, usually the 2nd game in the series after the Gophers trounced em in the first game. I wonder how many of Terry's points vs lesser opponents came in those games where the lesser opponent made em work harder for the win in comparison to the blow out wins?! Just adding to what you already wrote.

 

[vicb]

Re: Patty Kazmaier 2014

If you want to bring +/- into the equation for consideration, Erin Ambrose leads the ECAC in +/- with +40 and Jamie Lee Rattray is 3rd in the ECAC at +34. Clarkson has the top 3 in +/- with Vanessa Gagnon in 2nd with +37.

 

[Trillium]

Re: Patty Kazmaier 2014

If you want to bring +/- into the equation for consideration, Erin Ambrose leads the ECAC in +/- with +40 and Jamie Lee Rattray is 3rd in the ECAC at +34. Clarkson has the top 3 in +/- with Vanessa Gagnon in 2nd with +37.

Again, +/ - is a function of the overall teams' offense and defence. You can't rank and compare individual players across teams by + / - to assess their relative performance, only within the team. Having even 2-3 really offensively gifted players and/or an exceptional goalie tends to lift everyones + / - quite a bit versus other teams. Clarkson has both.

But I do agree with you, Ambrose's value definitely stands out on that measure within her team. She has not only the top +/-, but exceeds the average by a significant degree. For a defenseman, that's really the most important stat in my books. She's also 2nd on the team in points and PP goals, and leads the team in assists.

She may actually be the most valuable player on her team, which should make her a frontrunner for the Kaz. She's only a few points behind Rattray.

It would also be nice to see a defenseman considered for the award for a change. They generally get little recognition.

 

[Eeyore]

Re: Patty Kazmaier 2014

You can't rank and compare individual players across teams by + / - to assess their relative performance, only within the team.

You can't even do that. +/- is a horribly flawed statistic that is best ignored entirely. There are several of critical things that it doesn't account for: who are the teammates you're playing with; what is the quality of the opposition you face; where is the puck when you start a shift. All of them have a major impact on +/- and the last one is something that few people stop to consider at all. A player that tends to start their shift with an offensive zone face-off is going to do better in +/-, all else being equal, as a player who tends to start with a defensive zone face-off and you might be surprised at how big the difference between players on the same team can be.

 

[dave1381]

Re: Patty Kazmaier 2014

I think Eeyore is underestimating Leveille. IMO, she had the single most important game of any Gopher this year, in the 2-1 win over Wisconsin. If she doesn't single-handedly keep her team in it when everyone else was AWOL, who knows how the season would have unfolded. It's fine to say that Peters would have done roughly the same thing, but she's never played NCAA hockey. I've seen other goalies come along with similar credentials and never come close to the season that Leveille has had. It is rare to sit at the top of all of the statistical categories among starters.

Agreed

As far as Maschmeyer goes, I liked her more for the Kaz in the first half than in the second, when she has tailed off a bit. At this point, her statistics aren't better than those of Rigsby, so it is tough to say that Maschmeyer has had a better season.

Disagree. The big difference is Maschmeyer has won the majority of Harvard's four most important games of the season, and Rigsby lost all four. Granted, Wisconsin faced the tougher opponent. (To add, as I said, Leveille winning all four of those games should give her top consideration -- so yes, I'd rank them Leveille > Maschmeyer > Rigsby now... though I think Leveille vs. Maschmeyer is close enough that relative performance in conference tournaments could sway results. If Harvard were to win ECACs with that roster, you have to seriously consider Maschmeyer, though the way her season has gone they'll have a tougher time getting past Yale than Cornell & Clarkson!)

At the moment, Maschmeyer, Leveille, and Rigsby all have the same save pct., with Leveille having a tiny edge.

I'd say that Rattray is the favorite. It is likely good for the award if she wins and adds to the list of programs that have won it.

I agree, while of course noting that it shouldn't play a role in the actual outcome.

But I also think it's bad for the award if it seems to keep going to the player simply with the most points every year -- while again noting that I'm not endorsing this being used as an actual negative in deciding the award, obviously it's a positive.

 

[dave1381]

Re: Patty Kazmaier 2014

Also with the +/- it's important to break down the + and -. If the differences are based on who is on the ice more when the 4th to 7th goals are score in a 7-0 win, that's not meaningful. Goals against are something that always should be avoided. It can be a helpful starting point but one needs to look in detail before using it in award consideration.

 

[pokechecker]

Re: Patty Kazmaier 2014

Also with the +/- it's important to break down the + and -. If the differences are based on who is on the ice more when the 4th to 7th goals are score in a 7-0 win, that's not meaningful. Goals against are something that always should be avoided. It can be a helpful starting point but one needs to look in detail before using it in award consideration.

all of these criticisms of the +/- could be said of goals and assists as well
if you just look at numbers as absolutes, you are likely missing hidden meaning

no matter how you cut it, a +/- of 46 & 43 is better than anybody else
and when you look at how much ice time Davis gets, and the number of goals scored while she's on the ice, it tells you what us Gopher fans already know

 

[Trillium]

Re: Patty Kazmaier 2014

You can't even do that. +/- is a horribly flawed statistic that is best ignored entirely. There are several of critical things that it doesn't account for: who are the teammates you're playing with; what is the quality of the opposition you face; where is the puck when you start a shift. All of them have a major impact on +/- and the last one is something that few people stop to consider at all. A player that tends to start their shift with an offensive zone face-off is going to do better in +/-, all else being equal, as a player who tends to start with a defensive zone face-off and you might be surprised at how big the difference between players on the same team can be.

I disagree that it is not valuable or should be ignored. Having been a team stats keeper for many years prior to college, in many ways it is actually the most telling statistic. Over the course of the season, many of the things you cite will average themselves out over time. Unlike the other stats, it at least rewards players who forecheck and back check and are more likely to be where they should be when without the puck, and takes into account that at times the other 4 players on the ice with you are not always exactly the same even if your line mates or D partner is consistent. No other stat does that.

The arguments you make could equally be said for goals and assists. They are largely a function of your total minutes, which line you play on, and the strength of your line mates. If you happen to be paired on a line with a Kaz nominee, your production is going to benefit dramatically versus someone used as a third line checker. Both players may be equally capable of posting similar scoring stats given the same situation. In the latter case, the + / - can show the true overall value of both players to the team although their roles are different.

 

[Trillium]

Re: Patty Kazmaier 2014

Also with the +/- it's important to break down the + and -. If the differences are based on who is on the ice more when the 4th to 7th goals are score in a 7-0 win, that's not meaningful. Goals against are something that always should be avoided. It can be a helpful starting point but one needs to look in detail before using it in award consideration.

Definitely.

 

[ARM]

Disagree. The big difference is Maschmeyer has won the majority of Harvard's four most important games of the season, and Rigsby lost all four. Granted, Wisconsin faced the tougher opponent. (To add, as I said, Leveille winning all four of those games should give her top consideration -- so yes, I'd rank them Leveille > Maschmeyer > Rigsby now... though I think Leveille vs. Maschmeyer is close enough that relative performance in conference tournaments could sway results.

For a goaltender, I don't know that one can ignore results against lower teams. It is a little like the RPI, where maybe we throw out a win against a weak opponent, but we can't disregard entirely struggles versus weak opponents. Over the first half, I considered Maschmeyer to be someone who not only could make the top 10 but win the award overall. She was by far the best player on the ice and the reason that Harvard was having so much success. I haven't seen the same level from her in the second half. Consider the Colgate game. If her offense doesn't rally for three goals late, then that is a loss. The other goalies we are discussing don't have the same type of game where they were scored on to the same extent by a weak opponent. The majority of the games where Leveille gave up three goals came in the first half of the year when she was adjusting to being the starter. Because she started slower and didn't create much buzz then, I don't know that Leveille can win, and I don't know if she'll even make the list of 10. Maschmeyer, OTOH, had a great first half and her weaker games, such as being pulled versus Northeastern, came in the second half.

 

[Trillium]

Re: Patty Kazmaier 2014

Kaz Watch piece on Erin Ambrose is here:
http://www.pattykaz.com/news_article...rrer_id=718465

She gets my vote.
If ever there was a season when a defenseman deserves to be a finalist, if not the winner, it's this one.

Based on comments on the board (and stats), there are a few forwards neck and neck to one another, a few goalies neck and neck to one another, but no one anywhere close to Ambrose on D.

Ambrose's offensive stats are comparable to all the best forwards, and she is the quarterback of Clarksons PP. She also boasts a stellar +/- , the best on her team, so she has not sacrificed defence one iota to achieve them.

 

[HankScorpio]

Re: Patty Kazmaier 2014

Top-10 announced http://www.pattykaz.com/news_article/show/354560?referrer_id=718465

looks to be some glaring omissions imo

 

[mnpokecheck]

Re: Patty Kazmaier 2014

Disagree. The big difference is Maschmeyer has won the majority of Harvard's four most important games of the season, and Rigsby lost all four. Granted, Wisconsin faced the tougher opponent. (To add, as I said, Leveille winning all four of those games should give her top consideration -- so yes, I'd rank them Leveille > Maschmeyer > Rigsby now... though I think Leveille vs. Maschmeyer is close enough that relative performance in conference tournaments could sway results. If Harvard were to win ECACs with that roster, you have to seriously consider Maschmeyer, though the way her season has gone they'll have a tougher time getting past Yale than Cornell & Clarkson!)

So Rigsby has lost 4 games all year, all to Minnesota, and this downgrades her in comparison to Maschmeyer's losses to RPI, Yale and Clarkson....nice try. If Wisconsin and Harvard swap goalies, Maschmeyer now faces Minnesota, UND, and UMD 4 times each; while Rigsby faces Clarkson, Cornell, Quinnipiac, St Lawrence, Princeton, and Yale (top 6 opponents ECAC) 2 times each - how would their records change?

 

[ARM]

Re: Patty Kazmaier 2014

The top 10 list is out:
http://www.pattykaz.com/news_article/show/354560?referrer_id=718465

2014 PATTY KAZMAIER TOP-10 FINALISTS
Name	Year	Pos.	School
Erin Ambrose	Sophomore	D	Clarkson University
Brittany Ammerman	Senior	F	University of Wisconsin
Kelly Babstock	Senior	F	Quinnipiac University
Christine Bestland	Senior	F	Mercyhurst University
Rachael Bona	Junior	F	University of Minnesota
Hannah Brandt	Sophomore	F	University of Minnesota
Sarah Lefort	Sophomore	F	Boston University
Emerance Maschmeyer	Sophomore	G	Harvard University
Jamie Lee Rattray	Senior	F	Clarkson University
Jillian Saulnier	Junior	F	Cornell University

 

[CrazyDave]

Re: Patty Kazmaier 2014

The top 10 list is out:
http://www.pattykaz.com/news_article/show/354560?referrer_id=718465

2014 PATTY KAZMAIER TOP-10 FINALISTS
Name	Year	Pos.	School
Erin Ambrose	Sophomore	D	Clarkson University
Brittany Ammerman	Senior	F	University of Wisconsin
Kelly Babstock	Senior	F	Quinnipiac University
Christine Bestland	Senior	F	Mercyhurst University
Rachael Bona	Junior	F	University of Minnesota
Hannah Brandt	Sophomore	F	University of Minnesota
Sarah Lefort	Sophomore	F	Boston University
Emerance Maschmeyer	Sophomore	G	Harvard University
Jamie Lee Rattray	Senior	F	Clarkson University
Jillian Saulnier	Junior	F	Cornell University

Neither Leveille or Rigsby?

 

[mnpokecheck]

Re: Patty Kazmaier 2014

Top-10 announced http://www.pattykaz.com/news_article/show/354560?referrer_id=718465

looks to be some glaring omissions imo

So the top 8 points leaders as of today + Ammerman + Maschmeyer(goalie).

BTW, where is the BC candidate that was going to win it all during the Olympic Year vacuum?

Oh, and Lamoureux was robbed.

 

[mnpokecheck]

Re: Patty Kazmaier 2014

I could see modifying the PK process and make selections for Forward of the Year(9), Defenseman of the Year(6), and Goalie of the Year(3) with these winners becoming the three finalists?

 

[TonyTheTiger20]

Re: Patty Kazmaier 2014

BTW, where is the BC candidate that was going to win it all during the Olympic Year vacuum?

She played much of the season injured and eventually missed a month of games because of it.

Otherwise she would have wiped the floor with these ten frauds.
I am obviously kidding about that last part. These ten players are all very derserving candidates. Lighten up, Francis.