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Patty Kaz 2013
- Thread starter PrincetonFan
- Start date
Re: Patty Kaz 2013
When you watch the interviews, Noora is always giving credit to the skaters (always playing with a lead, not having to worry about leaving a rebound), and the skaters are always giving credit to Noora (never having to worry about a bad pass or a turnover). In this situation, each is comfortable knowing neither has to carry the team, so they have less pressure to perform. Because of the intangibles, it strikes me that trying to assign a ranking to the players is futile.
Just glad I don't have to pick the Kaz winner...
When you watch the interviews, Noora is always giving credit to the skaters (always playing with a lead, not having to worry about leaving a rebound), and the skaters are always giving credit to Noora (never having to worry about a bad pass or a turnover). In this situation, each is comfortable knowing neither has to carry the team, so they have less pressure to perform. Because of the intangibles, it strikes me that trying to assign a ranking to the players is futile.
Just glad I don't have to pick the Kaz winner...
Re: Patty Kaz 2013
January 11, 2013. Kessel had four goals and an assist in a 6-3 win over North Dakota. I don't think we need to engage in intangibles and what ifs. There is at least one specific game they don't win without her.
January 11, 2013. Kessel had four goals and an assist in a 6-3 win over North Dakota. I don't think we need to engage in intangibles and what ifs. There is at least one specific game they don't win without her.
Re: Patty Kaz 2013
That's nice.
The difference between the best goalie and an average one is more than half a goal a game but probably isn't much more than one. Overall, Minnesota allows a bit less than two goals a game less than average but some of that is the team in front of Noora. Minnesota allows about 20 shots per game. The replacement for Noora would be Amanda Leveille. I think it's a reasonable assumption that Leveille could manage at least a .900 save percentage; that would put her somewhere around the 32nd best goalie in the country and, having watched her a bit, I think that she'd be better than that but we can use it as a rough estimate. In that case, the Gophers would be allowing almost exactly one goal a game more than they are now.
Kessel's direct effects are a bit harder to piece together because there is not only the drop-off from her to whoever would replace her on the first line, but the follow on effects of whoever replaced that player elsewhere. However, Kessel is averaging 0.72 points per game more than the second highest player in the country and 0.29 goals scored more than the second in that category. The gap between her and an average forward is enormous.
As I said, it's hard to make a direct comparison for a number of reasons. However, the numbers suggest that Kessel's value over her potential replacement is significantly greater than Räty's is. My guess is that some of the intangible things move it back in the other direction and that a case can be made for Räty, but if I had to choose between them I would almost certainly go with Kessel as the best and most valuable player on the team.
I hedge that because, perhaps just to be contrary, my choice might actually be neither of them. I think an equally good case can be made for Megan Bozek as the best player on the team.
That's nice.
The difference between the best goalie and an average one is more than half a goal a game but probably isn't much more than one. Overall, Minnesota allows a bit less than two goals a game less than average but some of that is the team in front of Noora. Minnesota allows about 20 shots per game. The replacement for Noora would be Amanda Leveille. I think it's a reasonable assumption that Leveille could manage at least a .900 save percentage; that would put her somewhere around the 32nd best goalie in the country and, having watched her a bit, I think that she'd be better than that but we can use it as a rough estimate. In that case, the Gophers would be allowing almost exactly one goal a game more than they are now.
Kessel's direct effects are a bit harder to piece together because there is not only the drop-off from her to whoever would replace her on the first line, but the follow on effects of whoever replaced that player elsewhere. However, Kessel is averaging 0.72 points per game more than the second highest player in the country and 0.29 goals scored more than the second in that category. The gap between her and an average forward is enormous.
As I said, it's hard to make a direct comparison for a number of reasons. However, the numbers suggest that Kessel's value over her potential replacement is significantly greater than Räty's is. My guess is that some of the intangible things move it back in the other direction and that a case can be made for Räty, but if I had to choose between them I would almost certainly go with Kessel as the best and most valuable player on the team.
I hedge that because, perhaps just to be contrary, my choice might actually be neither of them. I think an equally good case can be made for Megan Bozek as the best player on the team.
TonyTheTiger20
#SOAR
That's pretty much the point I was tryimg to make, yeah.
I've always been a big fan of VORP. Gives you a meaningful way of comparing players of different positions.
Oh man I hadn't even considered her. Even if I disregard the actual defensive part of her game (since I've never seen it... except when getting tooled on by BC on NCAA's a couple years ago
) isn't she like 8th in points as a defenseman???Boy the boards are definitely more fun now that you're back, Ringo. I had been pretty much without peer in the #TrollSoHard rankings since you left
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Re: Patty Kaz 2013
Bozek is 11th nationally in total points (39) and 15th nationally in points-per-game (1.50). But she's easily the leading full-time defenseman (MLam has 43 pts / 1.65 ppg, but she plays some forward too; Clarkson's Erin Ambrose has 26 pts / 1.18 ppg). Bozek is also tied for third nationally in power-play goals (8), leading the team.
TTT -- Now you made me go look.Oh man I hadn't even considered her. Even if I disregard the actual defensive part of her game (since I've never seen it... except when getting tooled on by BC on NCAA's a couple years ago
Bozek is 11th nationally in total points (39) and 15th nationally in points-per-game (1.50). But she's easily the leading full-time defenseman (MLam has 43 pts / 1.65 ppg, but she plays some forward too; Clarkson's Erin Ambrose has 26 pts / 1.18 ppg). Bozek is also tied for third nationally in power-play goals (8), leading the team.
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I hear you, but not all stats are created equally...
Enter dave and his paragraphs of analytical stat breakdown, god save us all.
frozenfeet
New member
Re: Patty Kaz 2013
Having witnessed both games. You switch goaltenders and that most likley would have been a Sioux sweep.
Bum Phillips once said "he can take his'en and beat yours'en, and then turn around and take yours'en and beat his'en.” I think he was talking about Nora
Having witnessed both games. You switch goaltenders and that most likley would have been a Sioux sweep.
Bum Phillips once said "he can take his'en and beat yours'en, and then turn around and take yours'en and beat his'en.” I think he was talking about Nora
TonyTheTiger20
#SOAR
I was more referring to the general discussion of comparing players to their replacement player at their position. As far as I know there isn't an actual VORP stat for college hockey... and would be incredibly difficult to make useful because of the differences in competition.
But you are correct, not all stats are created equal
Re: Patty Kaz 2013
Maybe, but you don't play them very well. I can't even figure out what your point is. North Dakota had 35 shots in the game. If, again, we assume a drop-off in save percentage from the actual value Räty produced in that game, .914, to the presumed replacement level of .900, you end up with North Dakota scoring an extra half of a goal. If we assume that North Dakota took better than average shots and that the replacement goalie would have suffered the same decline in save percentage that Räty did from usual performance, North Dakota would be expected to have scored about 1.75 goals more than they did, which was still less than the 3 goal difference in the final score.
Stepping back from just looking at the stats and examining the game in question as it was played, the identity of the goalie wouldn't have made much of a difference. The Gophers won that game up front. Kessel scored 24 seconds into the game, although Hannah Brandt deserves a lot of credit for shredding MLam as she broke into the zone. Räty made some nice saves and then got kind of hung out to dry in the third once the team had a six goal lead. Having been there, I feel confident in saying that the Gophers would have won that game if Leveille had played in goal. That game was won by the Brandt/Kessel line and Kessel played the key role.
Maybe, but you don't play them very well. I can't even figure out what your point is. North Dakota had 35 shots in the game. If, again, we assume a drop-off in save percentage from the actual value Räty produced in that game, .914, to the presumed replacement level of .900, you end up with North Dakota scoring an extra half of a goal. If we assume that North Dakota took better than average shots and that the replacement goalie would have suffered the same decline in save percentage that Räty did from usual performance, North Dakota would be expected to have scored about 1.75 goals more than they did, which was still less than the 3 goal difference in the final score.
Stepping back from just looking at the stats and examining the game in question as it was played, the identity of the goalie wouldn't have made much of a difference. The Gophers won that game up front. Kessel scored 24 seconds into the game, although Hannah Brandt deserves a lot of credit for shredding MLam as she broke into the zone. Räty made some nice saves and then got kind of hung out to dry in the third once the team had a six goal lead. Having been there, I feel confident in saying that the Gophers would have won that game if Leveille had played in goal. That game was won by the Brandt/Kessel line and Kessel played the key role.
TonyTheTiger20
#SOAR
Probably not the best weekend to bring up in this discussion seeing as how Kessel had SIX GOALS AND FOUR ASSISTS that weekend...
Agreed! Kessel should thank her for padding her stats so nicely..
Oh, and you know what I say about assumptions...
frozenfeet
New member
Re: Patty Kaz 2013
Oh I'm sorry, I should clarify my statement. I meant by switching goalies... Nora played for the Sioux. I thouht that would have been obvious
Oh I'm sorry, I should clarify my statement. I meant by switching goalies... Nora played for the Sioux. I thouht that would have been obvious
ARM
Fan of chipmunk-like mascots.
What has Noora ever done to you that you'd wish that on her? 
TonyTheTiger20
#SOAR
Re: Patty Kaz 2013
I will say, I think Ra(two dots)ty is totally legit, I just think Kessel's probably better/more valuable to the team/a bigger reason they're undefeated.
No I gotcha haha but I thought we were discussing the "who's more valuable" thing.Oh I'm sorry, I should clarify my statement. I meant by switching goalies... Nora played for the Sioux. I thouht that would have been obvious
I will say, I think Ra(two dots)ty is totally legit, I just think Kessel's probably better/more valuable to the team/a bigger reason they're undefeated.
TonyTheTiger20
#SOAR
Re: Patty Kaz 2013
Now I *know* you're just trolling. Subtlety is the name of the game here. You're out of practice I think. Don't worry; you'll get there.