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pairwise -- post jan 8th
- Thread starter mookie1995
- Start date
Shirtless Guy
Old Dirty Basterd
Re: pairwise -- post jan 8th
I could be wrong but it does appear that it is impossible for to get the top 8 & Notre Dame out of the tournament because the only way they finish below 10, is with enough AQs above them to guarantee the cut line is below them.
I could be wrong but it does appear that it is impossible for to get the top 8 & Notre Dame out of the tournament because the only way they finish below 10, is with enough AQs above them to guarantee the cut line is below them.
Patman
Rodent of Unusual Size
Re: pairwise -- post jan 8th
No, but really, Monte Carlo simulation implies the chances are god awfully small.
edit: technically, they aren't the "most likely"... they're just draws from a generated distribution. For instance, I have a hard time believing the situation that puts Mankato at 3rd overall is more likely than the others in between with no results. Its just a generation in the tails... therefore (probably) not likely yet be drawn.
No, but really, Monte Carlo simulation implies the chances are god awfully small.
edit: technically, they aren't the "most likely"... they're just draws from a generated distribution. For instance, I have a hard time believing the situation that puts Mankato at 3rd overall is more likely than the others in between with no results. Its just a generation in the tails... therefore (probably) not likely yet be drawn.
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ticapnews
Never graduate.
I haven't looked that far ahead yet (I so miss the PairWise calculator at slack.net) but there appears to be an RPI cushion at 12 that it will take some unusual results for any of them to miss. The bubble really is down to 13-18.
Shirtless Guy
Old Dirty Basterd
Re: pairwise -- post jan 8th
There is a huge RPI cliff after 10 that is hard for anyone to overcome. UML and Harvard also have a great shot if they don't get swept and there are a ton of AQs below 12 in the final RPI.
I missed the slack.net page so much that I built my own excel calculator. Tech Hockey Guide is hoping to have a working web based pairwise calculator with ability to enter results for all remaining games by tomorrow night (if all goes well). I'll keep this thread posted. Big issue might be handling a load if enough people like us want to fiddle with things. As nice as CHN's calculator has been, it has never included conference tournaments (until games are scheduled) and was very difficult to tweak results (having to start from scratch every time).
There is a huge RPI cliff after 10 that is hard for anyone to overcome. UML and Harvard also have a great shot if they don't get swept and there are a ton of AQs below 12 in the final RPI.
I missed the slack.net page so much that I built my own excel calculator. Tech Hockey Guide is hoping to have a working web based pairwise calculator with ability to enter results for all remaining games by tomorrow night (if all goes well). I'll keep this thread posted. Big issue might be handling a load if enough people like us want to fiddle with things. As nice as CHN's calculator has been, it has never included conference tournaments (until games are scheduled) and was very difficult to tweak results (having to start from scratch every time).
ticapnews
Never graduate.
Re: pairwise -- post jan 8th
Jayson Moy's bracketology
I differ on the B1G champion. Since I deal only with PairWise I assume Michigan will win and put the cut line at 15. Since Minnesota is hosting it makes a huge difference for North Dakota.
Jayson Moy's bracketology
I differ on the B1G champion. Since I deal only with PairWise I assume Michigan will win and put the cut line at 15. Since Minnesota is hosting it makes a huge difference for North Dakota.
Shirtless Guy
Old Dirty Basterd
Re: pairwise -- post jan 8th
As I mentioned a few posts ago ticapnews, THG is proud to announce our very own pairwise predictor. More features to come, but for now, you can predict results for everything this weekend and it will auto fill the rest as you go, including 3rd games in series if necessary and semifinal, third place, championship matchups for all conference tournaments!
Check it out:
http://techhockeyguide.com/news/2016/3/10/introducing
As I mentioned a few posts ago ticapnews, THG is proud to announce our very own pairwise predictor. More features to come, but for now, you can predict results for everything this weekend and it will auto fill the rest as you go, including 3rd games in series if necessary and semifinal, third place, championship matchups for all conference tournaments!
Check it out:
http://techhockeyguide.com/news/2016/3/10/introducing
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ticapnews
Never graduate.
Sweet! I'll check it out in the morning!
ticapnews
Never graduate.
Re: pairwise -- post jan 8th
http://www.uscho.com/bracketology/2...rfinals-are-solid-bets-to-stay-as-no-1-seeds/
Bracketology Blog
http://www.uscho.com/bracketology/2...rfinals-are-solid-bets-to-stay-as-no-1-seeds/
Bracketology Blog
Patman
Rodent of Unusual Size
Re: pairwise -- post jan 8th
So far, I would take from this that the CHN simulation still has bugs in it... or this has bugs in it... or both... I'm leaning tothe idea CHN has bugs... Mankato to a 3rd place in PWR would require a lot of ground to cover in terms of RPI.
So far, I would take from this that the CHN simulation still has bugs in it... or this has bugs in it... or both... I'm leaning tothe idea CHN has bugs... Mankato to a 3rd place in PWR would require a lot of ground to cover in terms of RPI.
Shirtless Guy
Old Dirty Basterd
Re: pairwise -- post jan 8th
yeah, that 0% there doesn't make any sense, no way Minnesota State gets to 3rd but can't get to 4-12...not sure about that one.
yeah, that 0% there doesn't make any sense, no way Minnesota State gets to 3rd but can't get to 4-12...not sure about that one.
Patman
Rodent of Unusual Size
Re: pairwise -- post jan 8th
in theory one could just get a long tail pull... as I said before... but not enough can actually happen for it to occur once you get in the weeds.
Let's put it this way, I'd check it if I were them even without pushing from others.
in theory one could just get a long tail pull... as I said before... but not enough can actually happen for it to occur once you get in the weeds.
Let's put it this way, I'd check it if I were them even without pushing from others.
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Shirtless Guy
Old Dirty Basterd
Re: pairwise -- post jan 8th
yeah, its one thing to have the 0% by MTU for getting to 10th, even though I can't seem to get there.
yeah, its one thing to have the 0% by MTU for getting to 10th, even though I can't seem to get there.
Patman
Rodent of Unusual Size
Re: pairwise -- post jan 8th
trust and programming are two things that don't belong together
trust and programming are two things that don't belong together
Shirtless Guy
Old Dirty Basterd
Re: pairwise -- post jan 8th
it doesn't mean it isn't possible...it takes just the right outcomes to maximize MTU's RPI while hurting the right teams. I tried to calculate who MTU wants to win every game based on their schedule, but that's tough too...haven't quite gotten it right yet.
it doesn't mean it isn't possible...it takes just the right outcomes to maximize MTU's RPI while hurting the right teams. I tried to calculate who MTU wants to win every game based on their schedule, but that's tough too...haven't quite gotten it right yet.
ticapnews
Never graduate.
Re: pairwise -- post jan 8th
I was just playing with the new PairWise Predictor and the first scenario I put in yielded an interesting result. All 6 conference autobids went to teams in the top 16, meaning no cut line for the first time in history. To do this I had all #1 seeds except Minnesota win the conference playoffs. It also works if Minnesota wins the B1G and Omaha and Cornell both get swept in the first round.
ETA: Also if Penn State wins the B1G. Basically, if RMU wins the AHA autobid and Michigan Tech the WCHA autobid then if any of the high seeds in the other four conferences win then there will be no cut line.
I was just playing with the new PairWise Predictor and the first scenario I put in yielded an interesting result. All 6 conference autobids went to teams in the top 16, meaning no cut line for the first time in history. To do this I had all #1 seeds except Minnesota win the conference playoffs. It also works if Minnesota wins the B1G and Omaha and Cornell both get swept in the first round.
ETA: Also if Penn State wins the B1G. Basically, if RMU wins the AHA autobid and Michigan Tech the WCHA autobid then if any of the high seeds in the other four conferences win then there will be no cut line.
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Patman
Rodent of Unusual Size
And I'm saying once one tests for bugs they should test again
ticapnews
Never graduate.
Re: pairwise -- post jan 8th
Eliminated:
Alabama-Huntsville
Alaska-Anchorage
American International
Arizona State
Brown
Colgate
Connecticut
Maine
Massachusetts
New Hampshire
Niagara
Princeton
Sacred Heart
Union
Need AQ:
Air Force
Alaska
Army
Bemidji State
Bentley
Bowling Green
Canisius
Colorado College
Dartmouth
Ferris State
Holy Cross
Lake Superior
Mercyhurst
Merrimack
Miami
Michigan State
Minnesota
Minnesota State
Northern Michigan
Ohio State
Rensselaer
RIT
Robert Morris
St. Lawrence
Vermont
Western Michigan
Wisconsin
Eliminated:
Alabama-Huntsville
Alaska-Anchorage
American International
Arizona State
Brown
Colgate
Connecticut
Maine
Massachusetts
New Hampshire
Niagara
Princeton
Sacred Heart
Union
Need AQ:
Air Force
Alaska
Army
Bemidji State
Bentley
Bowling Green
Canisius
Colorado College
Dartmouth
Ferris State
Holy Cross
Lake Superior
Mercyhurst
Merrimack
Miami
Michigan State
Minnesota
Minnesota State
Northern Michigan
Ohio State
Rensselaer
RIT
Robert Morris
St. Lawrence
Vermont
Western Michigan
Wisconsin
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ThePowerConference
Registered User
Re: pairwise -- post jan 8th
Minnesota State (Mankato) is #20 and Miami is #25. Is it possible that they could win every game except the championship of their conference tournament and still get an at-large bid? For example, if Mankato beats Lake Superior, beats Bowling Green/Northern Michigan, and then loses to Michigan Tech, that may be enough to get them in. Same for Miami if they win 2 at UMD, beat North Dakota, and then lose to Denver or St Cloud if those scenarios play out.
Minnesota State (Mankato) is #20 and Miami is #25. Is it possible that they could win every game except the championship of their conference tournament and still get an at-large bid? For example, if Mankato beats Lake Superior, beats Bowling Green/Northern Michigan, and then loses to Michigan Tech, that may be enough to get them in. Same for Miami if they win 2 at UMD, beat North Dakota, and then lose to Denver or St Cloud if those scenarios play out.