What's new
USCHO Fan Forum

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

  • The USCHO Fan Forum has migrated to a new plaform, xenForo. Most of the function of the forum should work in familiar ways. Please note that you can switch between light and dark modes by clicking on the gear icon in the upper right of the main menu bar. We are hoping that this new platform will prove to be faster and more reliable. Please feel free to explore its features.

pairwise -- post jan 8th

Re: pairwise -- post jan 8th

CHN's simulations apparently have found ways for BU to fall out.

Not after yesterday's results...
They now have the top 9 as locks, and 10-12 above 98.9% with Harvard and UML winning, that makes it nearly impossible for MTU or below to catch them without winning their own conference.
 
Re: pairwise -- post jan 8th

Eliminated with loss tonight:
Alaska
Bowling Green
Canisius
Clarkson
Colorado College
Cornell
Holy Cross
Lake Superior
Mercyhurst
Merrimack
Miami
Nebraska-Omaha
Northern Michigan
Rensselaer
Robert Morris
Vermont
Western Michigan
 
Re: pairwise -- post jan 8th

Minnesota State (Mankato) is #20 and Miami is #25. Is it possible that they could win every game except the championship of their conference tournament and still get an at-large bid? For example, if Mankato beats Lake Superior, beats Bowling Green/Northern Michigan, and then loses to Michigan Tech, that may be enough to get them in. Same for Miami if they win 2 at UMD, beat North Dakota, and then lose to Denver or St Cloud if those scenarios play out.

That is the scenario I use to determine if teams need the AQ or not. I then tweak teams around them as needed. I only need to get them into the tournament in one scenario (however unlikely) before I assign them to a list. I have not been able to find a scenario to get either team into the tournament.

The BU question was raised to me on Facebook, however tiebreakers (H2H) give the advantage to BU in those scenarios meaning BU gets in and Harvard (etc) miss. I tried like the dickens to get BU out but could not find a scenario that gets them below 10th.

Just because I can't find a scenario doesn't mean one doesn't exist. There are several million permutations and I'm not a computer. :)
 
Re: pairwise -- post jan 8th

In the race for the overall #1 position the teams still alive are
North Dakota
Quinnipiac
St Cloud
Boston College
Providence

Denver loses a comparison because of an earlier tie with Wisconsin so I can find no way to get them to #1, even with a superior RPI.
 
Re: pairwise -- post jan 8th

The BU question was raised to me on Facebook, however tiebreakers (H2H) give the advantage to BU in those scenarios meaning BU gets in and Harvard (etc) miss. I tried like the dickens to get BU out but could not find a scenario that gets them below 10th.

you deserve some pudding for all this work :D
 
Re: pairwise -- post jan 8th

In the race for the overall #1 position the teams still alive are
North Dakota
Quinnipiac
St Cloud
Boston College
Providence

Denver loses a comparison because of an earlier tie with Wisconsin so I can find no way to get them to #1, even with a superior RPI.

What if they end up winning the NCHC tournament?
 
What if they end up winning the NCHC tournament?
Even if UND SCSU QU PC & BC all lose in the conference quarters and DU wins. They lose the comparison with (I think) BU because of the common opponent category which they cannot change. If not for the tie vs Wisconsin they would split COp and win the comparison.
 
Re: pairwise -- post jan 8th

What are your thoughts about Yale still being in the tourney after these two bad losses to Dartmouth Jim?
 
Re: pairwise -- post jan 8th

man, so sad that just about every result went against MTU as far as PWR is concerned...sweep and fall from 13th to 15th and possibly 16th if Cornell wins tomorrow.
Looking more and more like WCHA will be a one-bid league this year
 
What are your thoughts about Yale still being in the tourney after these two bad losses to Dartmouth Jim?

I'd say very, very likely still. Contrary to CHN's results, they look in better shape to me than BU (though both are very likely). I personally don't have the tools to guarantee at this point that there aren't some edge cases that exclude them, but we can be fairly confident that at worst they'll land near the top of the bubble, so it would take a really bad cutline to exclude them.
 
Back
Top