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Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

  • Thread starter Thread starter Priceless
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Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

JimDahl said:
It's even rarer than Alaska making the tournament, I'm seeing it in 4 possible outcomes. This one requires a very particular tie in the 3rd place game to knock Brown out of being a TUC, while still keeping Yale ahead of UNH: http://goo.gl/Y0QFl
Click to expand...

Fascinating that in that scenario, Union, Yale, and UNH all have RPI = .5340 and UNH comes out on the bottom in the 5th decimal point. Are the other 3 like it in that way?
 
Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

JimDahl said:
My first run is very close to that posted by PatMan, summarized by Numbers above. This is supposed to be comprehensive, but errors are always a possibility. More detail later.

Quinnipiac #1 100% invite
Minnesota #2 100% invite
Miami #3-8 100% invite
Boston College #3-12 100% invite
Yale #3-18 96.9% invite
Mass.-Lowell #3-11 100% invite
North Dakota #3-12 100% invite
New Hampshire #5-13 100% invite
Notre Dame #3-19 81.8% invite
Mankato #3-14 99.7% invite
Niagara #4-15 95.9% invite
St Cloud #3-15 94.1% invite
Denver #7-15 98% invite
Western Michigan #13-18 56.5% invite
Union #8-22 41.5% invite
Wisconsin #10-23 13.3% invite
Providence #13-26 25.1% invite
Boston University #12-23 25.8% invite
Rensselaer #13-21 8.2% invite
Alaska #16-27 <.01% invite (43 of 393216 scenarios)
Cornell #18-27 No invites
Brown #16-29 Needs to win for invite
Dartmouth #18-25 No invites
Robert Morris #14-27 .7% invite
Colorado College #18-32 Needs to win for invite
Ohio State #17-32 Needs to win for invite
Michigan #21-NonTUC Needs to win for invite
Connecticut #21-NonTUC Needs to win for invite
Canisius NonTUC Needs to win for invite
Mercyhurst #32-NonTUC Needs to win for invite

Anyone see anything outside those ranges?
Click to expand...

Thanks for spelling that all out! Noting the low probability of NH slipping to #13, is it fairly safe to say that if Lowell or Boston College win the HEA tournament, the winner will be the #1 seed in Manchester?
 
Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Is it accurate that all conference tournaments have no consolation games for 2012-13?
 
Fishhawk said:
Thanks for spelling that all out! Noting the low probability of NH slipping to #13, is it fairly safe to say that if Lowell or Boston College win the HEA tournament, the winner will be the #1 seed in Manchester?
Click to expand...

I'd wager "no"... If Jim was able to save all his runs then he should have answer... I'll start working out simple UML contingencies later

Edit: BC can be a 1 w/o winning HEA for certain... I suppose that leads to the question if both BC and UML can be a one seed
 
Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Fishhawk said:
Thanks for spelling that all out! Noting the low probability of NH slipping to #13, is it fairly safe to say that if Lowell or Boston College win the HEA tournament, the winner will be the #1 seed in Manchester?
Click to expand...

I seem to be getting a possibility of Yale (if they beat QU) and NoDak (3 wins makes a difference here. It works with them beating Minny and Mankato anyway) jumping over Lowell in the event all 3 win their conference. Miami stays ahead, too, with a win in the CCHA final. So, Lowell would be 6th only in this case.

So, no is the answer to your question. I am now going to think about the possible question? Who has priority to the 4th overall seed? In other words, who gets auto by winning their tourney? I suspect it may not be possible to phrase it that way, because for Yale, beating Brown is a lot different than beating QU.

Quick Edit: BC has priority. Win HE, and they are a #1. Then, North Dakota. Then, Yale. Lowell is behind them all because they have a lost compare with SCSU which can't be flipped.
 
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Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Fishhawk said:
Thanks for spelling that all out! Noting the low probability of NH slipping to #13, is it fairly safe to say that if Lowell or Boston College win the HEA tournament, the winner will be the #1 seed in Manchester?
Click to expand...

Not definite yet because if Brown wins the ECAC title then they are definitely the #4 seed in Providence as the host school and will kick Quinnipiac to Manchester as a #1 seed. Lowell or BC would then go to Providence.
 
Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

QUAlum2004 said:
Not definite yet because if Brown wins the ECAC title then they are definitely the #4 seed in Providence as the host school and will kick Quinnipiac to Manchester as a #1 seed. Lowell or BC would then go to Providence.
Click to expand...

This is correct. It gets really hairy for the committee if the very strange occurence happens, and Brown and UNH both host as #4s. Then, QU can't go to Prov, and UNH is the highest #4, so QU likely would not be there, playing what amounts to a road game.

In regard to #1 seed priority, see post 725, where it is found that even if Brown loses, and UNH is not a #4, it doesn't matter for Lowell. If NoDak or Yale win out, Lowell can't pass them because of the St Cloud compare. If BC wins out, they have the priority to the last #1 seed.
 
Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Based on Jim Dahl's numbers the new list looks like this:

Clinched: (7)
Quinnipiac, Minnesota, Miami, Boston College, Lowell, North Dakota, New Hampshire

Close: (6)
Mankato, Denver, Yale, Niagara, St Cloud, Notre Dame

Bubble, still playing: (4)
Union, Wisconsin, Providence, Boston University

Need autobid: (7)
Michigan, Ohio State, UConn, Canisius, Mercyhurst, Brown, Colorado College

Eliminated from conference playoffs, but still alive: (3)
Western Michigan, RPI, Robert Morris, Alaska

Eliminated from NCAA consideration, but still a TUC:
Dartmouth, Ferris State, St Lawrence, Nebraska-Omaha, Holy Cross, Cornell

Can still become a TUC:
Mercyhurst
 
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Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Priceless said:
Based on Jim Dahl's numbers the new list looks like this:

Clinched: (7)
Quinnipiac, Minnesota, Miami, Boston College, Lowell, North Dakota, New Hampshire

Close: (6)
Mankato, Denver, Yale, Niagara, St Cloud, Notre Dame

Bubble, still playing: (4)
Union, Wisconsin, Providence, Boston University

Need autobid: (7)
Michigan, Ohio State, UConn, Canisius, Mercyhurst, Brown, Colorado College

Eliminated from conference playoffs, but still alive: (3)
Western Michigan, RPI, Alaska

Eliminated from NCAA consideration, but still a TUC:
Dartmouth, Robert Morris, Ferris State, St Lawrence, Nebraska-Omaha, Holy Cross, Cornell

Can still become a TUC:
Mercyhurst
Click to expand...
curious , without winning hockey east how does pc or bu get in.... would be nice to see one more HE school make it ..
 
Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Priceless said:
Based on Jim Dahl's numbers the new list looks like this:

Clinched: (7)
Quinnipiac, Minnesota, Miami, Boston College, Lowell, North Dakota, New Hampshire

Close: (6)
Mankato, Denver, Yale, Niagara, St Cloud, Notre Dame

Bubble, still playing: (4)
Union, Wisconsin, Providence, Boston University

Need autobid: (7)
Michigan, Ohio State, UConn, Canisius, Mercyhurst, Brown, Colorado College

Eliminated from conference playoffs, but still alive: (3)
Western Michigan, RPI, Alaska

Eliminated from NCAA consideration, but still a TUC:
Dartmouth, Robert Morris, Ferris State, St Lawrence, Nebraska-Omaha, Holy Cross, Cornell

Can still become a TUC:
Mercyhurst
Click to expand...

could be wrong but i see both pc and bu needing autobids , henceforth there should be just two on the bubble as you have described.
 
Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

unh1982 said:
could be wrong but i see both pc and bu needing autobids , henceforth there should be just two on the bubble as you have described.
Click to expand...

JimDahl shows BU with 0.8% chance at At-large, Pv 0.1% chance. Those things are hard to find.
 
Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

unh1982 said:
could be wrong but i see both pc and bu needing autobids , henceforth there should be just two on the bubble as you have described.
Click to expand...

I have seen scenarios where BU gets in by defeating BC on Friday and still losing on Saturday. I have not seen the same for Providence yet but I am still looking. CHN has a scenario where all 5 Hockey East teams get into the tournament.
 
Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Numbers said:
This is correct. It gets really hairy for the committee if the very strange occurence happens, and Brown and UNH both host as #4s. Then, QU can't go to Prov, and UNH is the highest #4, so QU likely would not be there, playing what amounts to a road game.
Click to expand...
That's interesting. Personally I do think they would put QU in Manchester here... not much difference between playing the #15 in, say, Toledo, than playing the 13 in Manchester. I'm sure Quinnipiac would WAY rather be in Manchester.

This 'hosting' nonsense is ****ing stupid.
 
Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

unh1982 said:
could be wrong but i see both pc and bu needing autobids , henceforth there should be just two on the bubble as you have described.
Click to expand...

Here is a fairly reasonable example for BU:

Atlantic Hockey
Semifinal #2: Connecticut defeats Mercyhurst
Semifinal #1: Niagara defeats Canisius
Championship game: Niagara defeats Connecticut
CCHA
Semifinal #2: Notre Dame defeats Ohio State
Semifinal #1: Miami defeats Michigan
Championship game: Miami defeats Notre Dame
ECAC
Semifinal #2: Yale defeats Union
Semifinal #1: Quinnipiac defeats Brown
Championship game: Quinnipiac defeats Yale
Consolation game: Brown defeats Union
Hockey East
Semifinal #2: Boston University defeats Boston College
Semifinal #1: Massachusetts-Lowell defeats Providence
Championship game: Massachusetts-Lowell defeats Boston University
WCHA
Play-in #2: North Dakota defeats Colorado College
Play-in #1: Minnesota State defeats Wisconsin
Semifinal #2: Minnesota defeats North Dakota
Semifinal #1: St. Cloud State defeats Minnesota State
Championship game: Minnesota defeats St. Cloud State


Read more: http://www.uscho.com/rankings/pairwise-predictor/#ixzz2NuoR7APL

The key here seems to be Union losing twice.
 
Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

TonyTheTiger20 said:
That's interesting. Personally I do think they would put QU in Manchester here... not much difference between playing the #15 in, say, Toledo, than playing the 13 in Manchester. I'm sure Quinnipiac would WAY rather be in Manchester.

This 'hosting' nonsense is ****ing stupid.
Click to expand...

I agree about the hosting situation for the east. In the west it is a different situation. Schools much farther apart. Not as many options for drawing fans. Etc.

Do you follow NHL? It's similar to the different needs of eastern and western franchises there.
 
Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

And, Providence gets in without auto bid, by winning the tb with Union via RPI or by winning the compare.....

Your Picks
Atlantic Hockey
Semifinal #2: Connecticut defeats Mercyhurst
Semifinal #1: Niagara defeats Canisius
Championship game: Niagara defeats Connecticut
CCHA
Semifinal #2: Notre Dame defeats Ohio State
Semifinal #1: Miami defeats Michigan
Championship game: Miami defeats Notre Dame
ECAC
Semifinal #2: Yale defeats Union
Semifinal #1: Quinnipiac defeats Brown
Championship game: Quinnipiac defeats Yale
Consolation game: Brown defeats Union
Hockey East
Semifinal #2: Boston College defeats Boston University
Semifinal #1: Providence defeats Massachusetts-Lowell
Championship game: Boston College defeats Providence
WCHA
Play-in #2: North Dakota defeats Colorado College
Play-in #1: Minnesota State defeats Wisconsin
Semifinal #2: Minnesota defeats North Dakota
Semifinal #1: St. Cloud State defeats Minnesota State
Championship game: Minnesota defeats St. Cloud State


Read more: http://www.uscho.com/rankings/pairwise-predictor/#ixzz2NupeFec0
 
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