Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

[goblue78]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

I can still get Yale ... out.

I presume that's with two losses, with a loss to Brown in the second game. I can't seem to get them out with either at least one win or a loss to Union and a loss to Qpac - a QPac loss just doesn't hurt RPI enough. Is that what you get?

 

[Priceless]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

USCHO's Pairwise Predictor

 

[Numbers]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Deleted because the information was really Priceless' list, and he posted it next.

 

[Priceless]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Could you repost that on the top of the next page, and then we can all be reminded henceforth that it is post #681?

And Cornell needs to be added to: No longer playing, but still TUC

Updated list

Clinched:
Quinnipiac, Minnesota, Miami, Boston College, Lowell, North Dakota, New Hampshire, Notre Dame, Mankato

Close:
Yale, Niagara, St Cloud

Bubble, still playing:
Union, Wisconsin, Providence, Boston University

Need autobid:
Michigan, Ohio State, UConn, Canisius, Mercyhurst, Brown, Colorado College

Eliminated from conference playoffs, but still alive:
Alaska, RPI, Western Michigan, Denver, Robert Morris

Eliminated from NCAA consideration, but still a TUC:
Dartmouth, Ferris State, St Lawrence, Nebraska-Omaha, Holy Cross, Cornell

Can still become a TUC:
Mercyhurst

Post 684

 

[Numbers]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Fairbanks Hockey Fan,

To get just 2 CCHA bids requires nothing more special that a few tourney upsets to pull the cutline above 14 and WMU.

 

[Numbers]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Leave yours. I will leave mine, too, but might delete the information so as to not change the post numbers

 

[purpleinnebraska]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Updated list

Clinched:
Quinnipiac, Minnesota, Miami, Boston College, Lowell, North Dakota, New Hampshire, Notre Dame, Mankato

Close:
Yale, Niagara, St Cloud

Bubble, still playing:
Union, Wisconsin, Providence, Boston University

Need autobid:
Michigan, Ohio State, UConn, Canisius, Mercyhurst, Brown, Colorado College

Eliminated from conference playoffs, but still alive:
Alaska, RPI, Western Michigan

Eliminated from NCAA consideration, but still a TUC:
Dartmouth, Robert Morris, Ferris State, St Lawrence, Nebraska-Omaha, Holy Cross, Cornell

Can still become a TUC:
Mercyhurst

Post 684

Where'd Denver go?

 

[Numbers]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

I would be glad to run more scenarios if someone has a question. Or, I would be glad to call it a night.

 

[fairbanks hockey puck]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

like the pwr predictor, but can see AK getting above 21...

 

[Numbers]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

like the pwr predictor, but can see AK getting above 21...

Didn't get that?

 

[fairbanks hockey puck]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

can't

 

[fairbanks hockey puck]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Thought you had said AK needs favorites to win..I punched in the numbers AK in the 20's...am I doing something wrong???

 

[Numbers]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Thought you had said AK needs favorites to win..I punched in the numbers AK in the 20's...am I doing something wrong???

No. It's my bad. I was using Whelan's site, and I had a typo with the Michigan results. I am going back to that. Sorry.

 

[Priceless]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Niagara as the 1-seed in Manchester

Atlantic Hockey
Semifinal #2: Connecticut defeats Mercyhurst
Semifinal #1: Niagara defeats Canisius
Championship game: Niagara defeats Connecticut
CCHA
Semifinal #2: Notre Dame defeats Ohio State
Semifinal #1: Miami defeats Michigan
Championship game: Miami defeats Notre Dame
ECAC
Semifinal #2: Yale defeats Union
Semifinal #1: Quinnipiac defeats Brown
Championship game: Quinnipiac defeats Yale
Consolation game: Union defeats Brown
Hockey East
Semifinal #2: Boston University defeats Boston College
Semifinal #1: Providence defeats Massachusetts-Lowell
Championship game: Providence defeats Boston University
WCHA
Play-in #2: North Dakota defeats Colorado College
Play-in #1: Wisconsin defeats Minnesota State
Semifinal #2: Minnesota defeats North Dakota
Semifinal #1: St. Cloud State defeats Wisconsin
Championship game: St. Cloud State defeats Minnesota


Read more: http://www.uscho.com/rankings/pairwise-predictor/#ixzz2NrUT3dgP

 

[fairbanks hockey puck]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

so any scenario even possible for AK, even though they shot themselves in the foot with michigan state last weekend

 

[fairbanks hockey puck]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

and last question, will this process be easier, more difficult or about the same with the conference realignments????? thank you guys!!!

 

[Chuck Schwartz]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

And now to begin the daunting process of finding scenarios where Wisconsin makes the tournament with only one win at the Final Five...

 

[Numbers]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

so any scenario even possible for AK, even though they shot themselves in the foot with michigan state last weekend

I am looking hard. I am running up against a situation where AK loses to compare to Br, Da, Cr and RM by slight amounts in the RPI - like .0010, and I can't find a way to get them over the hump. It you want to try, I know this much - you need Michigan to win the CCHA.

 

[BC/HE]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Where'd Denver go?

Probably to H-E Double Hockey sticks

 

[Patman]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

I finally got my code up and running on the whole deal (Pairwise was fine, but generating the games and counting the 16 team cutoff had issues). I haven't seen UAF get in but I'm only running like 100 draws.... anyhow

   NAME  NCAA    S1    S2    S3    S4  CONF   TUC
1    AA 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
2    AF 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
3    AH 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
4    AI 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
5    Ak 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.000
6    Ar 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
7    BC 1.000 0.340 0.620 0.040 0.000 0.246 1.000
8    BG 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
9    Bn 0.253 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.253 0.253 1.000
10   BS 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
11   BU 0.254 0.000 0.000 0.004 0.250 0.247 1.000
12   By 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
13   Ca 0.244 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.244 0.244 0.000
14   CC 0.133 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.133 0.133 1.000
15   Cg 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
16   Ck 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
17   Cr 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.000
18   Ct 0.262 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.262 0.262 0.502
19   Da 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.000
20   DU 0.981 0.000 0.003 0.833 0.145 0.000 1.000
21   FS 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.000
22   Ha 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
23   HC 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.000
24   LS 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
25   MA 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
26   MD 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
27   Me 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
28   Mh 0.242 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.242 0.242 0.000
29   Mi 0.237 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.237 0.237 0.506
30   Mk 0.997 0.104 0.235 0.649 0.009 0.130 1.000
31   ML 1.000 0.276 0.687 0.037 0.000 0.258 1.000
32   Mm 1.000 0.814 0.186 0.000 0.000 0.242 1.000
33   Mn 1.000 1.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.249 1.000
34   Mr 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
35   MS 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
36   MT 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
37   ND 1.000 0.090 0.637 0.273 0.000 0.128 1.000
38   NE 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
39   NH 1.000 0.000 0.496 0.504 0.000 0.000 1.000
40   Ni 0.954 0.045 0.266 0.461 0.182 0.252 1.000
41   NM 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
42   NO 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.000
43   Nt 0.811 0.110 0.100 0.436 0.165 0.269 1.000
44   OS 0.252 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.252 0.252 1.000
45   Pn 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
46   PS 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
47   Pv 0.251 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.251 0.249 1.000
48   Qn 1.000 1.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.235 1.000
49   RM 0.005 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.005 0.000 1.000
50   RP 0.080 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.080 0.000 1.000
51   RT 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
52   SC 0.951 0.053 0.251 0.424 0.223 0.245 1.000
53   SH 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
54   SL 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.000
55   Un 0.421 0.000 0.000 0.123 0.298 0.252 1.000
56   Vt 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
57   Wi 0.121 0.000 0.000 0.033 0.088 0.115 1.000
58   WM 0.584 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.584 0.000 1.000
59   Ya 0.967 0.168 0.519 0.183 0.097 0.260 1.000

One thousand draws, every game event is treated as equally likely.

1,000 draws in 78 seconds... lot of code loading overhead accounting for earlier speed claim.

edit: unless I really screwed up, RMU is still alive... barely.

edit #2: I'm actually impressed how well my simulation is running all things considered. Would still love to see what could happen with some C/C++ code and ran in parallel.