fairbanks hockey puck
Registered User
Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition
many thanks!!!! we will try and crunch some more numbers...
many thanks!!!! we will try and crunch some more numbers...
many thanks!!!! we will try and crunch some more numbers...
Niagara as the 1-seed in Manchester
Atlantic Hockey
Semifinal #2: Connecticut defeats Mercyhurst
Semifinal #1: Niagara defeats Canisius
Championship game: Niagara defeats Connecticut
CCHA
Semifinal #2: Notre Dame defeats Ohio State
Semifinal #1: Miami defeats Michigan
Championship game: Miami defeats Notre Dame
ECAC
Semifinal #2: Yale defeats Union
Semifinal #1: Quinnipiac defeats Brown
Championship game: Quinnipiac defeats Yale
Consolation game: Union defeats Brown
Hockey East
Semifinal #2: Boston University defeats Boston College
Semifinal #1: Providence defeats Massachusetts-Lowell
Championship game: Providence defeats Boston University
WCHA
Play-in #2: North Dakota defeats Colorado College
Play-in #1: Wisconsin defeats Minnesota State
Semifinal #2: Minnesota defeats North Dakota
Semifinal #1: St. Cloud State defeats Wisconsin
Championship game: St. Cloud State defeats Minnesota
Read more: http://www.uscho.com/rankings/pairwise-predictor/#ixzz2NrUT3dgP
Interesting in that Patman's odds for Niagara getting in as a number 1 equals their odds for not making the tournament at all. Is this some kind of mathematical curve?
NAME NCAA S1 S2 S3 S4 CONF ATLRG TUC
1 AA 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
2 AF 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
3 AH 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
4 AI 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
5 Ak 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 1.0000
6 Ar 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
7 BC 1.0000 0.3563 0.6139 0.0298 0.0000 0.2535 0.7465 1.0000
8 BG 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
9 Bn 0.2587 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.2587 0.2587 0.0000 1.0000
10 BS 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
11 BU 0.2543 0.0000 0.0000 0.0040 0.2503 0.2460 0.0083 1.0000
12 By 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
13 Ca 0.2453 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.2453 0.2453 0.0000 0.0000
14 CC 0.1279 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.1279 0.1279 0.0000 1.0000
15 Cg 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
16 Ck 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
17 Cr 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 1.0000
18 Ct 0.2543 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.2543 0.2543 0.0000 0.5022
19 Da 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 1.0000
20 DU 0.9773 0.0000 0.0041 0.8367 0.1365 0.0000 0.9773 1.0000
21 FS 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 1.0000
22 Ha 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
23 HC 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 1.0000
24 LS 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
25 MA 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
26 MD 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
27 Me 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
28 Mh 0.2478 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.2478 0.2478 0.0000 0.0000
29 Mi 0.2453 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.2453 0.2453 0.0000 0.5148
30 Mk 0.9962 0.1015 0.2394 0.6464 0.0089 0.1217 0.8745 1.0000
31 ML 1.0000 0.2661 0.6978 0.0361 0.0000 0.2524 0.7476 1.0000
32 Mm 1.0000 0.8377 0.1623 0.0000 0.0000 0.2536 0.7464 1.0000
33 Mn 1.0000 1.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.2531 0.7469 1.0000
34 Mr 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
35 MS 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
36 MT 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
37 ND 1.0000 0.0849 0.6400 0.2751 0.0000 0.1219 0.8781 1.0000
38 NE 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
39 NH 1.0000 0.0000 0.5034 0.4966 0.0000 0.0000 1.0000 1.0000
40 Ni 0.9598 0.0399 0.2750 0.4788 0.1661 0.2526 0.7072 1.0000
41 NM 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
42 NO 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 1.0000
43 Nt 0.8128 0.1118 0.0861 0.4353 0.1796 0.2502 0.5626 1.0000
44 OS 0.2509 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.2509 0.2509 0.0000 1.0000
45 Pn 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
46 PS 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
47 Pv 0.2485 0.0000 0.0000 0.0035 0.2450 0.2481 0.0004 1.0000
48 Qn 1.0000 1.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.2420 0.7580 1.0000
49 RM 0.0071 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0071 0.0000 0.0071 1.0000
50 RP 0.0837 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0837 0.0000 0.0837 1.0000
51 RT 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
52 SC 0.9423 0.0491 0.2546 0.4183 0.2203 0.2495 0.6928 1.0000
53 SH 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
54 SL 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 1.0000
55 Un 0.4168 0.0000 0.0000 0.1122 0.3046 0.2546 0.1622 1.0000
56 Vt 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
57 Wi 0.1341 0.0000 0.0000 0.0349 0.0992 0.1259 0.0082 1.0000
58 WM 0.5656 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.5656 0.0000 0.5656 1.0000
59 Ya 0.9713 0.1527 0.5234 0.1923 0.1029 0.2447 0.7266 1.0000
Also, I believe to keep the Mk and DU compares, in the WCHA, you need, ND, Mk in the first Round: Minn, SC in Round 2, and Minn to win.
AK this close: .0001 to RM in the pairs:
AH:Ni over Ct in the final
EC: Br and Un in semi, Un and Qn in F and 3rd
HE:BC over Pv in the final
CC: Nt over Mi in the final
WC: ND, MK; Minn, SC; Minn
Leaves AK and RPI tied in the PWR, with RPI winning the tb both ways. In this case, the RPIs are AK: .5057, RM .5058, StL .5056. I can't find a way to lower RM's RPI without raising StL's. Can anyone else help out poor AK-F
Wow. I thought it would be closer to 100%Just the luck of it I suppose.
10,000 monte carlo iterations (MOE=0.5%), and I'll stop there... I could run to 100,000. It'd take about two hours, but I'm going to bed and Jim Dahl will have it in the morning for all 2^17*3 scenarios.
Code:NAME NCAA S1 S2 S3 S4 CONF ATLRG TUC 43 Nt 0.8128 0.1118 0.0861 0.4353 0.1796 0.2502 0.5626 1.0000
Your Picks
Atlantic Hockey
Semifinal #2: Connecticut defeats Mercyhurst
Semifinal #1: Niagara defeats Canisius
Championship game: Niagara defeats Connecticut
CCHA
Semifinal #2: Notre Dame defeats Ohio State
Semifinal #1: Miami defeats Michigan
Championship game: Notre Dame defeats Miami
ECAC
Semifinal #2: Union defeats Yale
Semifinal #1: Quinnipiac defeats Brown
Championship game: Union defeats Quinnipiac
Consolation game: Yale defeats Brown
Hockey East
Semifinal #2: Boston College defeats Boston University
Semifinal #1: Providence defeats Massachusetts-Lowell
Championship game: Boston College defeats Providence
WCHA
Play-in #2: North Dakota defeats Colorado College
Play-in #1: Wisconsin defeats Minnesota State
Semifinal #2: Minnesota defeats North Dakota
Semifinal #1: St. Cloud State defeats Wisconsin
Championship game: Minnesota defeats St. Cloud State
Read more: http://www.uscho.com/rankings/pairwise-predictor/#ixzz2Nrj9va7R
Keys: No autobids, CT over Mercy, Notre Dame and Union win conference titles
QU 100
Minn 100
Miami 100
BC 100
Yale 97.1
Lowell 100
UND 100
UNH 100
NoDame 81.3
Mankato 99.6
Niagara 96.0
SCSU 94.2
DU 97.8
WMU 56.6
Un 41.7
Providence 25.0(auto)
Wis 13.4(auto{3games} + ~.9)
BU 25.8(auto + ~.8)
RPI 8.4
AK ~0 but not quite
RM 0.7
Michigan 25.0(auto)
Mercyhurst 25.0(auto)
Ohio State 25.0(auto)
U-Conn 25.0(auto)
Canisius 25.0(auto)
Brown 25.0(auto)
ColoColl 12.5(auto – 3 games)
I am attempting to list odds according to Patman, in order of the present PWR. My first time to try a "code". I adjusted the ones of these that are obviously needing the auto-bid, to show that.
Code:QU 100 Minn 100 Miami 100 BC 100 Yale 97.1 Lowell 100 UND 100 UNH 100 NoDame 81.3 Mankato 99.6 Niagara 96.0 SCSU 94.2 DU 97.8 WMU 56.6 Un 41.7 Providence 25.0(auto) Wis 13.4(auto{3games} + ~.9) BU 25.8(auto + ~.8) RPI 8.4 AK ~0 but not quite RM 0.7 Michigan 25.0(auto) Mercyhurst 25.0(auto) Ohio State 25.0(auto) U-Conn 25.0(auto) Canisius 25.0(auto) Brown 25.0(auto) ColoColl 12.5(auto – 3 games)
Thanks for all the info, and I hate to waste your time, but what's the .4 scenario where Mankato misses out?
I am looking hard. I am running up against a situation where AK loses to compare to Br, Da, Cr and RM by slight amounts in the RPI - like .0010, and I can't find a way to get them over the hump. It you want to try, I know this much - you need Michigan to win the CCHA.
My first run is very close to that posted by PatMan, summarized by Numbers above. This is supposed to be comprehensive, but errors are always a possibility. More detail later.
Quinnipiac #1 100% invite
Minnesota #2 100% invite
Miami #3-8 100% invite
Boston College #3-12 100% invite
Yale #3-18 96.9% invite
Mass.-Lowell #3-11 100% invite
North Dakota #3-12 100% invite
New Hampshire #5-13 100% invite
Notre Dame #3-19 81.8% invite
Mankato #3-14 99.7% invite
Niagara #4-15 95.9% invite
St Cloud #3-15 94.1% invite
Denver #7-15 98% invite
Western Michigan #13-18 56.5% invite
Union #8-22 41.5% invite
Wisconsin #10-23 13.3% invite
Providence #13-26 25.1% invite
Boston University #12-23 25.8% invite
Rensselaer #13-21 8.2% invite
Alaska #16-27 <.01% invite (43 of 393216 scenarios)
Cornell #18-27 No invites
Brown #16-29 Needs to win for invite
Dartmouth #18-25 No invites
Robert Morris #14-27 .7% invite
Colorado College #18-32 Needs to win for invite
Ohio State #17-32 Needs to win for invite
Michigan #21-NonTUC Needs to win for invite
Connecticut #21-NonTUC Needs to win for invite
Canisius NonTUC Needs to win for invite
Mercyhurst #32-NonTUC Needs to win for invite
Anyone see anything outside those ranges?
Thanks Jim. Very cool. Do you have idea under what circumstances UNH ends up #13?
My first run is very close to that posted by PatMan, summarized by Numbers above. This is supposed to be comprehensive, but errors are always a possibility. More detail later.
Quinnipiac #1 100% invite
Minnesota #2 100% invite
Miami #3-8 100% invite
Boston College #3-12 100% invite
Yale #3-18 96.9% invite
Mass.-Lowell #3-11 100% invite
North Dakota #3-12 100% invite
New Hampshire #5-13 100% invite
Notre Dame #3-19 81.8% invite
Mankato #3-14 99.7% invite
Niagara #4-15 95.9% invite
St Cloud #3-15 94.1% invite
Denver #7-15 98% invite
Western Michigan #13-18 56.5% invite
Union #8-22 41.5% invite
Wisconsin #10-23 13.3% invite
Providence #13-26 25.1% invite
Boston University #12-23 25.8% invite
Rensselaer #13-21 8.2% invite
Alaska #16-27 <.01% invite (43 of 393216 scenarios)
Cornell #18-27 No invites
Brown #16-29 Needs to win for invite
Dartmouth #18-25 No invites
Robert Morris #14-27 .7% invite
Colorado College #18-32 Needs to win for invite
Ohio State #17-32 Needs to win for invite
Michigan #21-NonTUC Needs to win for invite
Connecticut #21-NonTUC Needs to win for invite
Canisius NonTUC Needs to win for invite
Mercyhurst #32-NonTUC Needs to win for invite
Anyone see anything outside those ranges?