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Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

  • Thread starter Thread starter Priceless
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Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

AdamBC said:
Well, Fort Wayne is a pretty boring town. I would assume that if the NCAA didn't make the ticket prices ridiculous it would have had better local interest and attendance. The Komets do well enough in that regard. So you go to Fort Wayne - pre-game at Pierre's, pay through the nose for tickets and then a long drive back to wherever the alumni/fans actually live.
Click to expand...

I reject the notion that these regionals fail to draw full houses because any of the towns they are held in are "boring." I can point out any number of interesting things to do in Fort Wayne and local folks can probably likewise come up with things in any of the places that have hosted regionals. I cannot imagine a town "boring" enough to keep me from a Notre Dame NCAA game that I otherwise am able to attend. Ticket prices, on the other hand, may be an issue. They were ridiculously overpriced in Fort Wayne in 2010, and overall they have so far outpaced inflation in the last decade perhaps the NCAA SHOULD do something along those lines. But remember, the NCAA doesn't SET the price. They have a floor and ceiling and the hosts pick something within that range.
 
Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Obviously many things can change between now and the March 24th Selection Show, but I would think they would send Notre Dame to Toledo and Minnesota to Grand Rapids. If their worried about attendance in either Toledo or Grand Rapids they could also always send North Dakota to one of those also.
 
Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Tonight's Pairwise:

1 Boston*Coll*(HE)
2 Quinnipiac*(EC)
3 New*Hampshire*(HE)
4 Notre*Dame*(CC)
5 Boston*Univ*(HE)
6 Minnesota*(WC)
7 Miami*(CC)
8 North*Dakota*(WC)
9 Denver*U*(WC)
10 Western*Mich*(CC)
11 Dartmouth*(EC)
12 MSU-Mankato*(WC)
13 Yale*(EC)
14 Mass-Lowell*(HE)
15 NE-Omaha*(WC)
16 Niagara*(AH)

Bracketology by the book:

Code: 
[B]Manchester (UNH)Providence (Brown)	Toledo (BGSU)		Grand Rapids (Michigan)[/B]
New Hamp	Boston C		Quinnipiac		Notre Dame
Minnesota	North Dakota		Miami			Boston U
Dartmouth	Denver			Western Mich		Mankato
Lowell		Niagara			UNO			Yale

We need to eliminate three matchups between conference foes. As always, we need to help attendance out west if we can. The new bracketology is a mess.

Code: 
[B]Manchester (UNH)Providence (Brown)	Toledo (BGSU)		Grand Rapids (Michigan)[/B]
New Hamp	Boston C		Quinnipiac		Notre Dame
Boston U	North Dakota		Miami			Minnesota
Mankato		Dartmouth		Denver			W Michigan
Yale		Niagara			UNO			Lowell

Not ideal, but when there are three pairings that have to be broken up, you're not going to see much in the way of an ideal bracket. 1-8-11-16/2-7-9-15/3-5-12-13/4-6-10-14 is about as good as it gets. The #1 team has the easiest bracket (36) and the others are as balanced as we can get them (34, 33, 33) and we give the western regionals the best shot at drawing fans. Attendance will still be an issue, make no mistake.

The TUC line:

Code: 
26	Ferris*State	0.5049
27	Northern*Mich	0.5012
28	Providence	0.5001
---
29	CO*College	0.4936
30	AK-Fairbanks	0.4924

The Wisconsin-UAA game will have no impact on the pairwise.
 
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Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

A great example of how messed up even looking at Pairwise this early can be.

Here we have UNO, currently the all alone in first place team in the WCHA, as a #4 seed. That said, we'd be chomping at the bit to get another crack at the Bobcats in the Toledo Regional in the scenario above, trust me.

If Miami is in (one assumes they will be), they are going to Toledo no matter what, right?
 
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Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Red Cows said:
A great example of how messed up even looking at Pairwise this early can be.

Here we have UNO, currently the all alone in first place team in the WCHA, as a #4 seed. That said, we'd be chomping at the bit to get another crack at the Bobcats in the Toledo Regional in the scenario above, trust me.

If Miami is in (one assumes they will be), they are going to Toledo no matter what, right?
Click to expand...

If at all possible, but they aren't the host team, so it isn't automatic. In the scenario we have this week, if Miami were a #1 seed like Notre Dame, they'd have to be shipped to Grand Rapids because Quinnipiac is a #1 seed. They could invoke the "flight is a flight" clause I suppose. I still haven't been able to convince my travel agent of that "flight is a flight" logic :D
 
Red Cows said:
A great example of how messed up even looking at Pairwise this early can be.

Here we have UNO, currently the all alone in first place team in the WCHA, as a #4 seed. That said, we'd be chomping at the bit to get another crack at the Bobcats in the Toledo Regional in the scenario above, trust me.

If Miami is in (one assumes they will be), they are going to Toledo no matter what, right?
Click to expand...

Both North Dakota and Minnesota have two conference games in hand, and your non conference record this season isn't the greatest.
 
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Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Maybe it's just me but it seems that this year places 11 -16 are very iffy on making it. What are the stats on teams outside the top 16 as of january 1 getting in?
 
Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

manurespreader said:
Maybe it's just me but it seems that this year places 11 -16 are very iffy on making it. What are the stats on teams outside the top 16 as of january 1 getting in?
Click to expand...
39 of the 141 (28%) teams to make the tournament were on the outside looking in. The average cut line has been 14, but this year there would be no cut line as the top AHA team is currently #16 overall. Last year the cut line was 15 and 7 of those 15 teams came from outside the top 16. That was by far the most. In 2003 and 2005 only 2 of 14 teams came from outside the top 16.

Statistically speaking, 13, 14 and 15 are the most volatile positions with far less margin for error. Those are the teams that also have to keep an eye on the TUC line because they can ill afford to lose a comparison because of record vs TUC.
 
manurespreader said:
Maybe it's just me but it seems that this year places 11 -16 are very iffy on making it. What are the stats on teams outside the top 16 as of january 1 getting in?
Click to expand...

Let's put it this way... There's a lot of work left to be done but if you do well in the short term it is surely an indicator you will likely do well in the long term.
 
Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Priceless said:
39 of the 141 (28%) teams to make the tournament were on the outside looking in. The average cut line has been 14, but this year there would be no cut line as the top AHA team is currently #16 overall. Last year the cut line was 15 and 7 of those 15 teams came from outside the top 16. That was by far the most. In 2003 and 2005 only 2 of 14 teams came from outside the top 16.

Statistically speaking, 13, 14 and 15 are the most volatile positions with far less margin for error. Those are the teams that also have to keep an eye on the TUC line because they can ill afford to lose a comparison because of record vs TUC.
Click to expand...

There's always the possibility of a cut line, simply because of the autobid. In 2011, only one autobid (the AHA) made it. All other autobids were already in the top 15.
 
Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

FlagDUDE08 said:
There's always the possibility of a cut line, simply because of the autobid. In 2011, only one autobid (the AHA) made it. All other autobids were already in the top 15.
Click to expand...
Right. I'm saying as of this moment there would be no cut line as all autobids - even the AHA leader - are in the top 16. I expect that will change.
 
Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Priceless said:
They could invoke the "flight is a flight" clause I suppose. I still haven't been able to convince my travel agent of that "flight is a flight" logic :D
Click to expand...

Well, they do inform you of that on a semi-regular basis.

It's just that when they do it, it looks like a price quote. :)
 
Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

After Tuesday:

1 Boston*Coll*(HE) 26 0.6001
2 Quinnipiac*(EC) 25 0.5895
3 New*Hampshire*(HE) 24 0.6006
4 Boston*Univ*(HE) 23 0.5782
5 Minnesota*(WC) 22 0.5777
6 Notre*Dame*(CC) 21 0.5761
7 Miami*(CC) 20 0.5599
8 North*Dakota*(WC) 19 0.5664
9 Denver*U*(WC) 18 0.5546
10 Dartmouth*(EC) 16 0.5462
11 MSU-Mankato*(WC) 15 0.5458
12 Western*Mich*(CC) 15 0.5449
13 Yale*(EC) 14 0.5420
14 Mass-Lowell*(HE) 12 0.5322
15 NE-Omaha*(WC) 11 0.5384
-- Niagara

Final bracketology
Code: 
[B]Manchester (UNH)Providence (Brown)	Toledo (BGSU)		Grand Rapids (Michigan)[/B]
New Hamp	Boston C		Quinnipiac		Boston U
Notre Dame	North Dakota		Miami			Minnesota
Mankato		Dartmouth		Denver			W Michigan
Yale		Niagara			Lowell			UNO

TUC line
Code: 
25	Holy*Cross	0.5049
26	Ferris*State	0.5043
27	Northern*Mich	0.5005
---
28	Providence	0.4999
29	CO*College	0.4942
30	Wisconsin	0.4940
 
Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

New pairwise after tonight's upset:
1 Boston*Coll*(HE) 26 0.5966
2 Quinnipiac*(EC) 25 0.5904
3 New*Hampshire*(HE) 24 0.5976
4 Minnesota*(WC) 23 0.5773
5 Notre*Dame*(CC) 22 0.5756
6 North*Dakota*(WC) 20 0.5647
7 Boston*Univ*(HE) 20 0.5641
8 Miami*(CC) 20 0.5600
9 Denver*U*(WC) 18 0.5538
10 Dartmouth*(EC) 16 0.5466
11 MSU-Mankato*(WC) 15 0.5457
12 Western*Mich*(CC) 15 0.5448
13 Yale*(EC) 14 0.5429
14 Mass-Lowell*(HE) 12 0.5317
15 NE-Omaha*(WC) 11 0.5385
-- Niagara


Code: 
[B]Manchester (UNH)Providence (Brown)	Toledo (BGSU)		Grand Rapids (Michigan)[/B]
New Hamp	Boston C		Quinnipiac		Minnesota
North Dakota	Boston U		Miami			Notre Dame
W Michigan	Dartmouth		Denver			Mankato
Yale		Niagara			UNO			Lowell

TUC line
Code: 
25	Holy*Cross	0.5050
26	Ferris*State	0.5045
27	Northern*Mich	0.5005
---
28	Providence	0.4988
29	CO*College	0.4941
30	Wisconsin	0.4939
 
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Priceless said:
New pairwise after tonight's upset:
1 Boston*Coll*(HE) 26 0.5966
2 Quinnipiac*(EC) 25 0.5904
3 New*Hampshire*(HE) 24 0.5976
4 Minnesota*(WC) 23 0.5773
5 Notre*Dame*(CC) 22 0.5756
6 North*Dakota*(WC) 20 0.5647
7 Boston*Univ*(HE) 20 0.5641
8 Miami*(CC) 20 0.5600
9 Denver*U*(WC) 18 0.5538
10 Dartmouth*(EC) 16 0.5466
11 MSU-Mankato*(WC) 15 0.5457
12 Western*Mich*(CC) 15 0.5448
13 Yale*(EC) 14 0.5429
14 Mass-Lowell*(HE) 12 0.5317
15 NE-Omaha*(WC) 11 0.5385
-- Niagara


Code: 
[B]Manchester (UNH)Providence (Brown)	Toledo (BGSU)		Grand Rapids (Michigan)[/B]
New Hamp	Boston C		Quinnipiac		Minnesota
North Dakota	Boston U		Miami			Notre Dame
W Michigan	Dartmouth		Denver			Mankato
Yale		Niagara			Lowell			UNO

TUC line
Code: 
25	Holy*Cross	0.5050
26	Ferris*State	0.5045
27	Northern*Mich	0.5005
---
28	Providence	0.4988
29	CO*College	0.4941
30	Wisconsin	0.4939
Click to expand...

You really think they would let a Minnesota-Omaha first round matchup happen?
 
Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Northeast:

1. New Hampshire
2. Notre Dame
3. Dartmouth
4. Yale

East:

1. Boston College
2. Boston University
3. Denver
4. Niagara

Midwest:

1. Quinnipiac
2. Miami
3. Minnesota State
4. Nebraska-Omaha

West:

1. Minnesota
2. North Dakota
3. Western Michigan
4. UMass-Lowell
 
J.D. said:
Northeast:

1. New Hampshire
2. Notre Dame
3. Dartmouth
4. Yale

East:

1. Boston College
2. Boston University
3. Denver
4. Niagara

Midwest:

1. Quinnipiac
2. Miami
3. Minnesota State
4. Nebraska-Omaha

West:

1. Minnesota
2. North Dakota
3. Western Michigan
4. UMass-Lowell
Click to expand...

Saves mookie money buying tickets and going :p
 
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