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Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

  • Thread starter Thread starter Priceless
  • Start date Start date
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Numbers said:
I don't believe so, but that is what they did with the Common Opponent part of the comparisons.
Click to expand...

Yes.

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From a pure geekery perspective I'm working on something similar to Rutter's method.... Bayesian but as of now, no random effects. We'll see how it gets put together. It ties in lightly (but not much at all) with current research. (Rutter, if you're out there, I've been working w Bayesian nonparametrics... The idea here is I can get to common links using scale mixture normal... So I just put a prior on the SMN inducing r.v. for the variance.)

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In the off-season, especially if I'm a sequester victim, I would like to advance on the simulator idea. I still believe the hard part is working in league tie-breakers and the most confusing parts are the tournament formats. For me the modeling (frequentist) part is easy(-ish). It's the moving bits that suck.
 
Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

With the victory over Yale tonight, Quinnipiac appears to have wrapped up the #1 seed in Providence. If QU loses its remaining regular season games (Brown, Dartmouth, Harvard) and Minnesota wins their remaining games (UMD, 2 v Denver, 2 v Bemidji) the Bobcats would still be ahead of the Gophers (TUC and COp). The same is true of Miami (Lake State, 2 v Ohio State). The Gophers could (in theory) drop all the way out of the field because they have those two games with Bemidji (losses would cripple their RPI). As long as the Gophers win against Bemidji and whichever team they draw in the WCHA 1st round, they should be the #1 seed in Grand Rapids. Miami appears to have also clinched an NCAA berth, barring something wacky in the CCHA tournament. They could still fall to a #2 seed.

Everyone else still has work to do.

Bracketology will be up after this North Dakota v Denver game. Preview: Boston University is out of the field, replaced by the St Lawrence Saints. That should alleviate the logjam we had with three Hockey East teams taking #4 seeds.
 
Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Priceless said:
With the victory over Yale tonight, Quinnipiac appears to have wrapped up the #1 seed in Providence. If QU loses its remaining regular season games (Brown, Dartmouth, Harvard) and Minnesota wins their remaining games (UMD, 2 v Denver, 2 v Bemidji) the Bobcats would still be ahead of the Gophers (TUC and COp). The same is true of Miami (Lake State, 2 v Ohio State). The Gophers could (in theory) drop all the way out of the field because they have those two games with Bemidji (losses would cripple their RPI). As long as the Gophers win against Bemidji and whichever team they draw in the WCHA 1st round, they should be the #1 seed in Grand Rapids. Miami appears to have also clinched an NCAA berth, barring something wacky in the CCHA tournament. They could still fall to a #2 seed.

Everyone else still has work to do.

Bracketology will be up after this North Dakota v Denver game. Preview: Boston University is out of the field, replaced by the St Lawrence Saints. That should alleviate the logjam we had with three Hockey East teams taking #4 seeds.
Click to expand...

Careful with your preview, Priceless. I am getting, compared to last week: No Dame replaces Union, and either Alaska (if they win or tie??) or St Lawrence replaces BU. Merrimack still gets the Hockey East auto bid, right?
 
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Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Numbers said:
Careful with your preview, Priceless. I am getting, compared to last week: No Dame replaces Union, and either Alaska (if they win or tie??) or St Lawrence replaces BU. Merrimack still gets the Hockey East auto bid, right?
Click to expand...
Alaska is down 1-0 to Michigan State after two. If they come back to win they would sneak into the field. A tie or a loss and they would remain outside. Union was not in the field because Merrimack was the Hockey East autobid. They would win it again, but if Sparty holds on for a win or tie, the would be #16 anyway.

* This is all based on Denver winning, as they were up 5-3 when I did these calculations...if the Whioux come back that might change things.
 
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Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

As things stand right now:

Code: 
[B]Manchester (UNH)		Providence (Brown)	Toledo (BGSU)		Grand Rapids (Michigan)[/B]
New Hamp			Quinnipiac		Miami			Minnesota
Boston C			Niagara			No Dakota		Mankato
St Cloud			Denver			Yale			W Michigan
Notre Dame			Merrimack		Lowell			St Lawrence

It would be very tempting for the committee to switch ND and SLU but I don't think they would. Swapping out NoDak/Yale and Niagara/Denver would reduce the flights.

If Alaska comes back:
Code: 
[B]Manchester (UNH)		Providence (Brown)	Toledo (BGSU)		Grand Rapids (Michigan)[/B]
New Hamp			Quinnipiac		Miami			Minnesota
Boston C			Denver			No Dakota		Mankato
St Cloud			Yale			Niagara			W Michigan
Notre Dame			Merrimack		Lowell			Alaska
 
Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

These are pretty good brackets, but.. what happens if: Yale continues to lose a few more, and 2, CC drops out as a TUC?
 
Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Priceless said:
Alaska is down 1-0 to Michigan State after two. If they come back to win they would sneak into the field. A tie or a loss and they would remain outside. Union was not in the field because Merrimack was the Hockey East autobid. They would win it again, but if Sparty holds on for a win or tie, the would be #16 anyway.

* This is all based on Denver winning, as they were up 5-3 when I did these calculations...if the Whioux come back that might change things.
Click to expand...
Glad the Pios could help out, Priceless.:)
 
Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Assuming North Dakota and St Cloud maintain their leads, the game in Alaska does not impact bracketology.

Code: 
[B]Manchester (UNH)	Providence (Brown)		Toledo (BGSU)		Grand Rapids (Michigan)[/B]
New Hamp		Quinnipiac			Miami			Minnesota
Boston C		Niagara			        Mankato			N Dakota
Denver			St Cloud			Lowell			W Michigan
Dartmouth		Merrimack			Yale			Notre Dame

Attendance-wise, this is about as good a bracket as we're going to see. Three local teams in Manchester, two each in Grand Rapids and Providence and Miami anchoring Toledo.
 
Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Priceless said:
At this moment, RPI is in 15th, the last team into the tournament.
Click to expand...

I guess that we slipped. :( ;) Considering where we were in mid-January, this certainly isn't bad.

I wonder how many ECAC teams will make the tourney. Besides for QU, no one is guaranteed, but more than half the league is in a position to get an at large bit with a run (not all simultaneously, of course).
 
Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Very interesting movement in the PWR as Robert Morris has skyrocketed into a tie for 17th as they now have 10 TUC games. Should Niagara and Robert Morris keep winning all their games and RMU beats NU in the AHA semifinals and then loses to say Holy Cross in the championship it is possible to see 3 AHA teams in the field. By the same token if Niagara loses two to Air Force this weekend Atlantic Hockey may be down to just the champion getting in as AFA beat RMU 3 times and AFA could move back in as a TUC with 2 wins.
 
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Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

BC/HE said:
Very interesting movement in the PWR as Robert Morris has skyrocketed into a tie for 17th as they now have 10 TUC games. Should Niagara and Robert Morris keep winning all their games and RMU beats NU in the AHA semifinals and then loses to say Holy Cross in the championship it is possible to see 3 AHA teams in the field. By the same token if Niagara loses two to Air Force this weekend Atlantic Hockey may be down to just the champion getting in as AFA beat RMU 3 times and AFA could move back in as a TUC with 2 wins.
Click to expand...

Excellent commentary. Thank you. And, it brings up the favorite hobby of a few years ago: Bashing the PWR. No decent system would allow such fluctuations in everyone's fate by what happens with a very mid-pack team, AFA for example.
 
Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Numbers said:
Excellent commentary. Thank you. And, it brings up the favorite hobby of a few years ago: Bashing the PWR. No decent system would allow such fluctuations in everyone's fate by what happens with a very mid-pack team, AFA for example.
Click to expand...
As they say, you are only supposed to calculate it at the end of the season. :p
 
Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Priceless said:
Assuming North Dakota and St Cloud maintain their leads, the game in Alaska does not impact bracketology.

Code: 
[B]Manchester (UNH)	Providence (Brown)		Toledo (BGSU)		Grand Rapids (Michigan)[/B]
New Hamp		Quinnipiac			Miami			Minnesota
Boston C		Niagara			        Mankato			N Dakota
Denver			St Cloud			Lowell			W Michigan
Dartmouth		Merrimack			Yale			Notre Dame

Attendance-wise, this is about as good a bracket as we're going to see. Three local teams in Manchester, two each in Grand Rapids and Providence and Miami anchoring Toledo.
Click to expand...

If this bracket held, the Grand Rapids regional would be great and, most likely, a HUGE attendance draw! One would hope?!?!
 
Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Holy Cross is barely over the TUC line. However, they will be favored to win all 3 remaining games again bottom teams in the AHA. So their RPI won't improve much. A loss by Penn St to Wisconsin tonight might put them under the TUC line.
 
Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

This game tonight between Penn State and Wisconsin is HUGE for Bucky. They can flip 5 comparisons (RPI) and move as high as 17th in the pairwise.
 
Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

A Wisconsin win:
Code: 
[B]Manchester (UNH)	Providence (Brown)	Toledo (BGSU)		Grand Rapids (Michigan)[/B]
Boston C		Quinnipiac		Miami			Minnesota
New Hamp		Niagara			No Dakota		Mankato
Yale			St Cloud		Lowell			W Michigan
Dartmouth		Denver		        Rensselaer              Notre Dame

If there is a tie or Penn State win:
Code: 
[B]Manchester (UNH)	Providence (Brown)	Toledo (BGSU)		Grand Rapids (Michigan)[/B]
Boston C		Quinnipiac		Miami			Minnesota
New Hamp		Niagara			No Dakota		Mankato
Denver			St Cloud		Lowell			W Michigan
Dartmouth		Notre Dame	        Yale			Rensselaer

The TUC line will depend on the outcome of the game. A Wisconsin win pushes Holy Cross to .4999 and out of TUC status. A Penn State win or tie and Holy Cross remains a TUC.

Ohio State
Colgate
Colorado College
Northern Michigan
Brown
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Holy Cross
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Cornell
Air Force
Connecticut
 
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Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Tweeted this to you as well but Merrimack is no longer leading Hockey East and should be taken out.
 
Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

No issues with any of the projected brackets. ONE REQUEST: Make sure their is at least one WCHA team in each Region.
 
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