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Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

  • Thread starter Thread starter Priceless
  • Start date Start date
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Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Priceless said:
Merrimack gets the Hockey East autobid.
Click to expand...

Thanks. Hadn't noticed that. What about the Mankato/SCSU situation. I get Mankato 8th with all results. And, I agree with Mookie that Lowell, being lower rated, should get Minny, and BU get Miami.

Can you help me with that, too?
 
Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Numbers said:
Thanks. Hadn't noticed that. What about the Mankato/SCSU situation. I get Mankato 8th with all results. And, I agree with Mookie that Lowell, being lower rated, should get Minny, and BU get Miami.

Can you help me with that, too?
Click to expand...
The pairwise shows Mankato ahead by .0004 RPI. There was an AHA game that hadn't been reported to CHN yet and I assumed the outcome would make no difference. From what I can make out from the CHN site today it lowered St. Cloud's RPI by .0005, which was enough to flip the comparison. If the slack.net site were still up I could confirm that.

BU and Lowell are interchangeable in that grid, so I wouldn't quibble with reversing them.
 
Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Well, I'll try and see if Priceless agrees:
UNO/UAA game makes no difference

Providence: QU(1), Mankato (7) {Swap with WMU for attendance at GR}, Yale (11) {Attendance at Providence}, Merrimack (16) {HE auto-bid}
Grand Rapids: Minny (2), WMU (8) {Attendance}, SCSU (9) {break up WCHA teams}, Lowell (14) {Union has to face UNH, Lowell is lowest ranked left}
Toledo: Miami (3), NoDak (6), Niagara (10) {Can't have WCHA, Niagara swapped for attendance}, BU (13) {Union has to face UNH}
Manchester: UNH (4), BC (5), Denver (11) {Can't face NoDak}, Union (15) {Can't have BU or Lowell here}
 
Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

And, tomorrow's games are huge. Notre Dame currently out of the field, plays Miami, who is solid right now in 3rd. Minnesota vs Wisconsin. BC vs UNH in the 2nd-to-last matchup that could decide last line change in Manchester Finals.... And, Merrimack tries to hold on to the lead in HE.
 
Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

And, I was going to ask what is the current rule about teams with less than .500 records? I seem to remember some stipulation there. Eligible to be TUCs, but not for the tournament field as at-large?
 
Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Numbers said:
And, I was going to ask what is the current rule about teams with less than .500 records? I seem to remember some stipulation there. Eligible to be TUCs, but not for the tournament field as at-large?
Click to expand...

I believe this is correct. If their RPI is over .5000, they count as a TUC, but the only way they can make the tourney is as a Conference tournament winner.
 
Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

I am calling it now - ALL WCHA Frozen Four
Minnesota
Minnesota State - Mankato
North Dakota
Denver
 
Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Updated bracketology:

Code: 
[B]Manchester (UNH)	Providence (Brown)	Toledo (BGSU)		Grand Rapids (Michigan)[/B]
New Hamp		Quinnipiac		Miami			Minnesota
Boston C		Mankato			No Dakota		W Michigan
Denver			Yale			Niagara			St Cloud
Notre Dame		Merrimack		Boston U		Lowell

Hockey East gets five teams in, so one could go to Manchester (should be BU) but Notre Dame can fill in for them (and can't go to Toledo). Lowell and BU remain interchangeable - Miami v Lowell is the natural 3-14 pairing but Minnesota is the overall #2 and should get the lower-ranked of Lowell and BU. An argument can be made either way. W Michigan and Mankato aren't placed perfectly but that will hopefully help attendance. Otherwise the WMU v SCSU and Mankato v Yale pairings can be switched.

The TUC line:

Code: 
29	Colgate	        0.5013
30	Providence	0.5147
31	Col Coll	0.5002
		
	Air Force	0.4963
	Lake Superior	0.4956
 
Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Priceless said:
Updated bracketology:

Code: 
[B]Manchester (UNH)	Providence (Brown)	Toledo (BGSU)		Grand Rapids (Michigan)[/B]
New Hamp		Quinnipiac		Miami			Minnesota
Boston C		Mankato			No Dakota		W Michigan
Denver			Yale			Niagara			St Cloud
Notre Dame		Merrimack		Boston U		Lowell

Hockey East gets five teams in, so one could go to Manchester (should be BU) but Notre Dame can fill in for them (and can't go to Toledo). Lowell and BU remain interchangeable - Miami v Lowell is the natural 3-14 pairing but Minnesota is the overall #2 and should get the lower-ranked of Lowell and BU. An argument can be made either way. W Michigan and Mankato aren't placed perfectly but that will hopefully help attendance. Otherwise the WMU v SCSU and Mankato v Yale pairings can be switched.

I like these brackets which means they will be changed at least a half dozen times before the end of March :)
Click to expand...
 
Priceless said:
Updated bracketology:

Code: 
[B]Manchester (UNH)	Providence (Brown)	Toledo (BGSU)		Grand Rapids (Michigan)[/B]
New Hamp		Quinnipiac		Miami			Minnesota
Boston C		Mankato			No Dakota		W Michigan
Denver			Yale			Niagara			St Cloud
Notre Dame		Merrimack		Boston U		Lowell

Hockey East gets five teams in, so one could go to Manchester (should be BU) but Notre Dame can fill in for them (and can't go to Toledo). Lowell and BU remain interchangeable - Miami v Lowell is the natural 3-14 pairing but Minnesota is the overall #2 and should get the lower-ranked of Lowell and BU. An argument can be made either way. W Michigan and Mankato aren't placed perfectly but that will hopefully help attendance. Otherwise the WMU v SCSU and Mankato v Yale pairings can be switched.
Click to expand...

Curious...why take Merrimack over Union, when Union is ahead of them in the PWR and actually wins the comparison vs. Merrimack?
 
Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

QUAlum2004 said:
Yes but are they the favorite to win the HE tourney? I'd prolly say no st this point.
Click to expand...

no, prolly not (but you wouldn't want to play them right now, i can tell you that)................... , but bracketology is for now, this point in time
 
Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

sterlippo1 said:
no, prolly not (but you wouldn't want to play them right now, i can tell you that)................... , but bracketology is for now, this point in time
Click to expand...

Using the top team in the AHA in years when none are in line to get an autobid has always made sense to me. Using it in a league that is already getting four bids strikes me as quite odd. OTOH, the whole process of predicting the field in advance each time some games are played is an exercise and just shows how fluid things are.
 
Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

aweise said:
Curious...why take Merrimack over Union, when Union is ahead of them in the PWR and actually wins the comparison vs. Merrimack?
Click to expand...

Union is also higher than Merrimack in RatingsPI.

My guess is Hockey Rast Bias.
 
Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

FlagDUDE08 said:
Union is also higher than Merrimack in RatingsPI.

My guess is Hockey Rast Bias.
Click to expand...

yeah, what i meant was it (bracketology) doesn't consider what may or may not happen after today as he mentioned MC may not even be the favorite to win HE............though i wouldn't bet against them at this point
 
sterlippo1 said:
yeah, what i meant was it (bracketology) doesn't consider what may or may not happen after today as he mentioned MC may not even be the favorite to win HE............though i wouldn't bet against them at this point
Click to expand...
And that's the most important point...it's the selections AS OF TODAY. Take the current conference leader and assume they're the conference tourney champion because we don't have the tourney results. We can't assume someone other than Merrimack would be the HE champs, regardless of what we think will happen.
 
Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

aweise said:
Curious...why take Merrimack over Union, when Union is ahead of them in the PWR and actually wins the comparison vs. Merrimack?
Click to expand...

Because currently, Merrimack is leading Hockey East, both in points accumulated and in in-conference winning percentage.

Bracketology has always been an informal simulation of the tournament selection process, operating under the assumption that there are no more games remaining to play, not even those in conference tournaments. In the absence of such, bracketologists have to choose based on another method, and the next-most-logical (and the one that requires zero computations of probability) is "current regular season standings winner". Bracketology could use "highest ranking in the PWR or RPI" to determine this, but the fact that it's a simulation of the process itself leads bracketologists to use a method which would be used by conferences in such a process*.

Ordinarily, with the usual exception of Atlantic Hockey**, the team leading a conference in the standings is usually ranked in the Top 16 (i.e. the "cut-off" line), and so this question would be moot.

*And by NCAA regulations, there's really only two ways a conference can select its automatic participant: highest ranked at the end of round-robin conference play, or a knockout tournament. Technically, there's also a provision for an "in case of emergency" if a tournament can't be conducted in time for the tournament selection.

**Niagara's performance this year being, of course, against the trend.
 
Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Priceless,

It seems like slack.net is back up, in the condition it was in before it went down. No results posted since Jan 12. Is that what you are seeing, too?
 
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