Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

[HoosierBBall_GopherHockey]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Having seen QU three times in person this year and watched the Minn. St. Cloud series this weekend on the tube, I would say that the two WCHA teams are better at forward and defense. The difference maker for QU is Hartzell, the kid is a good pro goalie already. QU deserves the one spot on record alone, but record alone does not equate to the best team. Gonna be a great end to the season.

Hartzell is an obvious beast, but Wilcox and Faragher are no slouches. I will give Hartzell the nod since he is a senior with a ton of experience (started as a freshman?), but Wilcox has only had a few off nights all year. Not entirely sure about Faragher, but you don't get his sv. % and GAA by sucking. That said, Q deserves the #1 now for ranking, and they appear to be a legitimate team. That said, I would take Minnesota and SCSU over them.

 

[QUAlum2004]

Hartzell is an obvious beast, but Wilcox and Faragher are no slouches. I will give Hartzell the nod since he is a senior with a ton of experience (started as a freshman?), but Wilcox has only had a few off nights all year. Not entirely sure about Faragher, but you don't get his sv. % and GAA by sucking. That said, Q deserves the #1 now for ranking, and they appear to be a legitimate team. That said, I would take Minnesota and SCSU over them.

Hartzell has been the starter since his sophomore year. Played 6 games as a freshman though. He is legit. Will likely see multiple free agent NHL offers.

 

[Almington]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

As long as your win % vs TUCs is under .500 (10-11-3 .479), you want to keep those teams you split with. Lose that 2-2-0 vs Ohio State and you drop to 8-9-3 .475. Lose Ferris and you drop to .472, add UNO and you're down to .469.

True, but that is a far cry from the impact of losing the 2 games against UW which would drop it to 0.432 (8-11-3).

 

[sterlippo1]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

It's special for a small relatively unknown team to be at the top of a sport and while the entire body of work won't mean a thing if they don't win the region you can't convince me they're not the best team in the country.

It is special, very special and great for the school and fans , no doubt, but come on, polls aside, Minnesota is a cut above every other team at this point in time

 

[SJHovey]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

To both of these I say:

Like I said, I really, really like the Q. I want them to succeed this year more than any school other than BC. But, really, beating the teams you're supposed to beat regularly is very different from being able to confidently beat the teams at the top.

Let's all take a breath here.

Current strength of schedule rankings:

BC - 17
Quinnipiac - 19
MN - 21

Not sayin' I'd place a bet on Q in Vegas, but they're beating the teams they face.

Top to bottom the ECAC in the last few decades isn't nearly as deep as some of the other conferences. But only a fool would assume that the best of the ECAC each year isn't a very dangerous team to face in the tournament.

 

[Almington]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Current strength of schedule rankings:

BC - 17
Quinnipiac - 19
MN - 21

Not sayin' I'd place a bet on Q in Vegas, but they're beating the teams they face.

Top to bottom the ECAC in the last few decades isn't nearly as deep as some of the other conferences. But only a fool would assume that the best of the ECAC each year isn't a very dangerous team to face in the tournament.

Not according to KRACH:
MN:13
BC:14
QU: 37

 

[Steve_MN]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Current strength of schedule rankings:

BC - 17
Quinnipiac - 19
MN - 21

Not sayin' I'd place a bet on Q in Vegas, but they're beating the teams they face.

Top to bottom the ECAC in the last few decades isn't nearly as deep as some of the other conferences. But only a fool would assume that the best of the ECAC each year isn't a very dangerous team to face in the tournament.

Not according to KRACH:
MN:13
BC:14
QU: 37

If I had to guess, I'd say that the RPI SOS is inflated for QU based on their opponents having played... QU. Yet another reason that KRACH works better. Note that KRACH has QU in #1 the same as the PairWise, so I'm NOT suggesting that QU hasn't earned it's current #1 overall seed.

 

[Priceless]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

NMU is 24th in RPI so they're going to lose a ton of comparisons. The only remedy to that is to win games and boost the RPI. The good news is all seven games left on the regular season slate are all very much winnable games. A loss or two will cripple them in RPI. Another loss to Lake State could be catastrophic as they are only three, maybe four, wins away from becoming a TUC. The only teams you might lose from the current TUC list are Ferris and Ohio State - both .500 records. The rest should be safe. The other thing that could improve NMU's TUC record is if they sweep Bowling Green and then BGSU somehow becomes a TUC. Not likely, but possible. Other than that, there isn't much that can be done on the TUC front. You're basically left hoping NMU wins out and Lowell, Dartmouth, Nebraska-Omaha and either Notre Dame or Fairbanks lose as much as possible. Miami and Western can be a big help there with two games each against ND.

 

[aygwm2]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

NMU is 24th in RPI so they're going to lose a ton of comparisons. The only remedy to that is to win games and boost the RPI. The good news is all seven games left on the regular season slate are all very much winnable games. A loss or two will cripple them in RPI. Another loss to Lake State could be catastrophic as they are only three, maybe four, wins away from becoming a TUC. The only teams you might lose from the current TUC list are Ferris and Ohio State - both .500 records. The rest should be safe. The other thing that could improve NMU's TUC record is if they sweep Bowling Green and then BGSU somehow becomes a TUC. Not likely, but possible. Other than that, there isn't much that can be done on the TUC front. You're basically left hoping NMU wins out and Lowell, Dartmouth, Nebraska-Omaha and either Notre Dame or Fairbanks lose as much as possible. Miami and Western can be a big help there with two games each against ND.

Thanks. There's still an outside chance that NMU makes it, but they have to win games along with help from various teams. That's all there is to it. They've beat some highly ranked TUC teams, but have not been consistent enough to keep the assorted applicable percentages high enough. Even though they are 10th in the CCHA right now, surprisingly their still just outside the mix. Should be an interesting close to the season over the next six weeks all the way around.

 

[Priceless]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Thanks to the Build Your Own Rankings Calculator (currently down) we now have 10 years of Pairwise data to study. In that time there have been 19 teams that qualified thanks to the autobid and 141 who qualified by being ranked high enough (autobid or not) to make the NCAA tournament.

Of the 141 teams, 115 (81.6%) that qualified as of the post-Beanpot PWR would have made the eventual field. No teams that were ranked in the top 6 after the Beanpot dropped out of the eventual field. Two teams that were ranked #7 and two more that were #8 fell out of the rankings. "Only" 30 of the 40 (75%) teams ranked 9-12 qualified.

The 2010 Northern Michigan squad was ranked #23 and still earned at an-large bid. The 2007 UMass Minutemen were #21. Every other team has been in the top 20 post-Beanpot.

14 teams that were ranked 6-12 fell out of the tournament. Of those, nine came from the WCHA (led by CC's three times), three from Hockey East and two from the CCHA.

With that in mind, the field (minus autobids) should consist of these teams:

[B]1	Quinnipiac
2	Minnesota
3	Miami
4	Boston College
5	New Hampshire
6	North Dakota[/B]
[U]7	Western Michigan
8	Yale[/U]
9	St. Cloud State
10	Minnesota State
11	Niagara
12	Denver
13	Notre Dame
14	Alaska-Fairbanks
15	Boston University
16	Dartmouth
---
17	Mass.-Lowell
18	Northern Michigan
19	Nebraska-Omaha
20	Merrimack
21	Union
22	Wisconsin
23	Rensselaer

The top six teams should be safe. Western Michigan and Yale are almost safe. Everyone else still has work to do.

 

[Ralph Baer]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

The 2010 Northern Michigan squad was ranked #23 and still earned at an-large bid.

23	Rensselaer

a

 

[Priceless]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Updated bracketology:

Manchester (UNH)	Providence (Brown)	Toledo (BGSU)		Grand Rapids (Michigan)
Boston C		Quinnipiac		Miami			Minnesota
New Hamp		Yale			No Dakota		W Michigan
Denver			SCSU			Niagara			Mankato
Notre Dame		Boston U		Dartmouth		Alaska

TUC line

29	Holy Cross	0.5043
30	Robert Morris	0.5014
31	Colorado Coll	0.5002
		
	Brown	        0.4966
	Princeton	0.4958
	Massachusetts	0.4950

 

[Priceless]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Updated bracketology:

[B]Manchester (UNH)	Providence (Brown)	Toledo (BGSU)		Grand Rapids (Michigan)[/B]
Boston C		Quinnipiac		Miami			Minnesota
New Hamp		SCSU			No Dakota		W Michigan
Denver			Yale			Niagara			Mankato
Alaska			Merrimack		Lowell			Boston U

If the late games ends in a tie or Anchorage wins, Mankato would switch with St Cloud.

 

[Numbers]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Updated bracketology:

[B]Manchester (UNH)	Providence (Brown)	Toledo (BGSU)		Grand Rapids (Michigan)[/B]
Boston C		Quinnipiac		Miami			Minnesota
New Hamp		SCSU			No Dakota		W Michigan
Denver			Yale			Niagara			Mankato
Alaska			Merrimack		Lowell			Boston U

If the late games ends in a tie or Anchorage wins, Mankato would switch with St Cloud.

Which calculator are you looking at?

I see on USCHO and on CHN that NoDame, and not Merrimack is in the field.

Thanks.

 

[mookie1995]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Updated bracketology:

[B]Manchester (UNH)	Providence (Brown)	Toledo (BGSU)		Grand Rapids (Michigan)[/B]
Boston C		Quinnipiac		Miami			Minnesota
New Hamp		SCSU			No Dakota		W Michigan
Denver			Yale			Niagara			Mankato
Alaska			Merrimack		Lowell			Boston U

If the late games ends in a tie or Anchorage wins, Mankato would switch with St Cloud.

bu gets miami

 

[Numbers]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Mookie, Priceless,

I have different results:

I have:
#1 seeds: QU, Minny, Miami, BC
#2s: UNH, NoDak, WMU, Mankato (regardless of the late game)
#3s: St Cloud, Niagara, Yale, Denver
#4s: BU, UAF, Lowell, NoDame.

Which leads me to:
Prov: QU, Mankato, Yale (Can't have WCHA team, choose for attendance), NoDame
GR: Minny, WMU, SCSU (avoid WCHA matchup with highest #3 possible), Lowell
Toledo: Miami, NoDak, Niagara, BU (avoid CCHA matchup with UAF)
Manchester: BC, UNH, Denver, UAF

It's possible to get BU to Providence if you want to sacrifice the 1-16 game.

 

[mookie1995]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Mookie, Priceless,

I have different results:

I have:
#1 seeds: QU, Minny, Miami, BC
#2s: UNH, NoDak, WMU, Mankato (regardless of the late game)
#3s: St Cloud, Niagara, Yale, Denver
#4s: BU, UAF, Lowell, NoDame.

Which leads me to:
Prov: QU, Mankato, Yale (Can't have WCHA team, choose for attendance), NoDame
GR: Minny, WMU, SCSU (avoid WCHA matchup with highest #3 possible), Lowell
Toledo: Miami, NoDak, Niagara, BU (avoid CCHA matchup with UAF)
Manchester: BC, UNH, Denver, UAF

It's possible to get BU to Providence if you want to sacrifice the 1-16 game.

no.

bu and bc can't play
miami and uaf can't play
--simple flip

 

[mookie1995]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

you got i!

 

[Priceless]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Which calculator are you looking at?

I see on USCHO and on CHN that NoDame, and not Merrimack is in the field.

Thanks.

Merrimack gets the Hockey East autobid.

 

[WeAreNDHockey]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

bu and bc can't play
miami and uaf can't play

Notre Dame can't play either.... oh wait, wrong thread.