Um, no. The case that gets stronger every day is to
take the House back and punish the GOP so brutally that its few sane members finally have the yarbles to kick the nuts to the curb. But I don't think that happens quite yet.
If I was putting money on it today I'd place my bet on Obama + a 2 seat GOP majority in the Senate + a 10 seat GOP majority in the House. Pretty much a push from today. If the Dems
can manage to just barely hold on to the Senate* that would make a huge difference because of a SCOTUS confirmation. Ginsberg aint gonna live forever. (Scalia will. Just out of spite.)
* The midterm, 2014, is
just as bad for the Dems, so if Obama has a second term the final two years ought to have a significant GOP Senate majority -- maybe even filibuster-proof. 2016
is the reverse.
Year De Re
2012 23 10
2014 23 10
2016 10 24
---- -- --
Total 56 44
Assuming every Republican incumbent Senate seat is held in 2012, the Dems have to go 17-6 in their incumbencies. That's going to be VERY hard, particularly with all the retirements.