TheRevengeance
2016 Hockey East Overlords
I don't come here very often anymore (what can I say, whining about refs on Twitter is far more fun) but it was interesting to read back and see Rossi calling the ceiling of this team way back during the Denver weekend. I can't say I agreed then, but it looks much more clear now.
I agree that the forward talent outside of the top line isn't there and that in retrospect we were too bullish on Sebastian. Don't think anyone really realized how poor the level of play at SAC was until Letourneau added a comparison. (More on him later.) The ECAC transfers have been particularly disappointing. I do still believe Connor has "it" but right now "it" involves more penalties than points. The bottom six is mostly talentless, especially down the middle, and the very real chance that Williams turns pro, McGuire graduates, and Sebastian and Moore are both shown the door leaving us with four new centers needed next year is daunting.
I am more worried about the disparity in talent level perception before recruits get here vs. after they're here though. The likes of Colangelo, St. Louis, and Fontaine (whose rise is being embellished here, he's not playing head and shoulders better than he did for NU the way Colangelo did) have shown they have talent outside of this system while forwards with pedigree on the inside, the likes of Sebastian, Erdman, Poitras, Tellier, Fisher, and even Connor so far have underwhelmed here. I am not sure that it's fully a coaching problem so much as a talent scouting problem, as evidenced by players like the Hughes brothers who have flopped miserably after NU as well as others like the Jacksons who are pretty much the same, but there's enough smoke to say the coaching isn't helping matters. We have also still had quite a bit of individual forward success of late in spite of the overall decline, Lund would be a serious Hobey candidate if the team was in the top 10, Hryckowian was great last year and overshadowed by the generational freshman talent on Comm Ave, etc. So why is the coaching working great for a select few but not at all for the majority?
I will give the coaches a pass for some of the forward talent deficiencies because of the talent exodus they've fallen victim to, it isn't their fault that the Jacksons decided to leave together for the desert when Jim moved up, or that Will Smith changed to BC even though his personal preference was NU, there was nothing they could have done about his family connections there. Or that Dean Letourneau was not ready to play college hockey this year straight from his backyard. During the Keefe era enough forward talent has gone to other schools to make an entire forward lineup that is very possibly better than our actual forward lineup, and that is something you can't just magically recover from, and even last year hit a home run with Campbell on the incoming side. Sometimes things just don't work out, the coaches aren't the ones out here breaking Michael Fisher and Ben Miller in half every year or seemingly losing their #1 center to injury every fall. But the talent they've identified and landed has been underwhelming and looks to get worse by the year, with Ben Wilmott sputtering then flipping after being one of their signature targets on August 1, Haeden Ellis doing nothing in his new OHL home, Grayson Badger and James Fisher going from recruiting wins to also-rans, the list goes on and on. Even Letourneau is still searching for his first collegiate goal. I think talent identification and projection is by far the biggest black mark on the Keefe era so far, so many of these kids are either not as good as those who came before or are peaking at 16 and trending down from there. NU had NHL draft picks every year between I believe Kevin Roy in 2012 and the draft class of 2022, which had 8 drafted NU affiliates at one point. Since then, they were shut out in 2023, barely snuck Connor in for 2024, and nobody in the future pipeline looks to have serious draft pedigree. They haven't dove into the CHL yet either. It looks like they are falling behind and we all see it.
Having said that, I do not think that means it's time to fire the coaching staff, it's a zero sum sport and you can't be on top every year or find Adam Gaudette and Justin Hryckowian in every class. Greg Carvel went from the national title to the Hockey East basement in basically a single season. Norm Bazin has gone from the top to the bottom and seems to be on top again. They deserve more than an immediate white flag, especially with the arena issues they're facing and have been facing for years now, frankly. But they also are objectively not doing well enough. The offensive scheme is plain, lifeless, and useless. The special teams are the worst in the NCAA and it's not close. The scheme that may have been innovative in 2014 is dead in the water in 2024. They seem to be the worst team in the country at overcoming a single injury to anyone of remote importance. The talent they choose to hype up, either because they genuinely believe their own poor assessments or because they feel obligated to hype up their guys whether they believe it or not, is generally untalented. They hitched their horse to Choupani last year and Sebastian this year as breakout forwards and failed miserably at both. They need to correct the things they can control. Maybe after the year they'll get a new assistant coach to replace the guy they had to break the glass on and pull out of a front office in mid-October. I think realistically we're still a couple of years away from the change being warranted. But the worry is justified.
I agree that the forward talent outside of the top line isn't there and that in retrospect we were too bullish on Sebastian. Don't think anyone really realized how poor the level of play at SAC was until Letourneau added a comparison. (More on him later.) The ECAC transfers have been particularly disappointing. I do still believe Connor has "it" but right now "it" involves more penalties than points. The bottom six is mostly talentless, especially down the middle, and the very real chance that Williams turns pro, McGuire graduates, and Sebastian and Moore are both shown the door leaving us with four new centers needed next year is daunting.
I am more worried about the disparity in talent level perception before recruits get here vs. after they're here though. The likes of Colangelo, St. Louis, and Fontaine (whose rise is being embellished here, he's not playing head and shoulders better than he did for NU the way Colangelo did) have shown they have talent outside of this system while forwards with pedigree on the inside, the likes of Sebastian, Erdman, Poitras, Tellier, Fisher, and even Connor so far have underwhelmed here. I am not sure that it's fully a coaching problem so much as a talent scouting problem, as evidenced by players like the Hughes brothers who have flopped miserably after NU as well as others like the Jacksons who are pretty much the same, but there's enough smoke to say the coaching isn't helping matters. We have also still had quite a bit of individual forward success of late in spite of the overall decline, Lund would be a serious Hobey candidate if the team was in the top 10, Hryckowian was great last year and overshadowed by the generational freshman talent on Comm Ave, etc. So why is the coaching working great for a select few but not at all for the majority?
I will give the coaches a pass for some of the forward talent deficiencies because of the talent exodus they've fallen victim to, it isn't their fault that the Jacksons decided to leave together for the desert when Jim moved up, or that Will Smith changed to BC even though his personal preference was NU, there was nothing they could have done about his family connections there. Or that Dean Letourneau was not ready to play college hockey this year straight from his backyard. During the Keefe era enough forward talent has gone to other schools to make an entire forward lineup that is very possibly better than our actual forward lineup, and that is something you can't just magically recover from, and even last year hit a home run with Campbell on the incoming side. Sometimes things just don't work out, the coaches aren't the ones out here breaking Michael Fisher and Ben Miller in half every year or seemingly losing their #1 center to injury every fall. But the talent they've identified and landed has been underwhelming and looks to get worse by the year, with Ben Wilmott sputtering then flipping after being one of their signature targets on August 1, Haeden Ellis doing nothing in his new OHL home, Grayson Badger and James Fisher going from recruiting wins to also-rans, the list goes on and on. Even Letourneau is still searching for his first collegiate goal. I think talent identification and projection is by far the biggest black mark on the Keefe era so far, so many of these kids are either not as good as those who came before or are peaking at 16 and trending down from there. NU had NHL draft picks every year between I believe Kevin Roy in 2012 and the draft class of 2022, which had 8 drafted NU affiliates at one point. Since then, they were shut out in 2023, barely snuck Connor in for 2024, and nobody in the future pipeline looks to have serious draft pedigree. They haven't dove into the CHL yet either. It looks like they are falling behind and we all see it.
Having said that, I do not think that means it's time to fire the coaching staff, it's a zero sum sport and you can't be on top every year or find Adam Gaudette and Justin Hryckowian in every class. Greg Carvel went from the national title to the Hockey East basement in basically a single season. Norm Bazin has gone from the top to the bottom and seems to be on top again. They deserve more than an immediate white flag, especially with the arena issues they're facing and have been facing for years now, frankly. But they also are objectively not doing well enough. The offensive scheme is plain, lifeless, and useless. The special teams are the worst in the NCAA and it's not close. The scheme that may have been innovative in 2014 is dead in the water in 2024. They seem to be the worst team in the country at overcoming a single injury to anyone of remote importance. The talent they choose to hype up, either because they genuinely believe their own poor assessments or because they feel obligated to hype up their guys whether they believe it or not, is generally untalented. They hitched their horse to Choupani last year and Sebastian this year as breakout forwards and failed miserably at both. They need to correct the things they can control. Maybe after the year they'll get a new assistant coach to replace the guy they had to break the glass on and pull out of a front office in mid-October. I think realistically we're still a couple of years away from the change being warranted. But the worry is justified.
Last edited:
