Re: Northeastern 2015-16: Hobey Roy Kenobi and the Freshman Force
Am I the only one that is worried that we're going to get blown out this weekend? I have the feeling that being the hot hand while running into a team that was just as hot but received a wake up call makes me think this will be an ND sweep.
Notre Dame will not blow NE out this weekend. Maybe the Irish win in two, maybe Northeastern forces a third game, maybe the Huskies win the series. My guess is no one wins a game by more than two goals. And then probably an ENG will be in the mix.
These are two teams that made their bones doing equally well against the bottom of HE and struggled some against the top of the league. The edge might go to Notre Dame in that they did squeeze out a couple of wins against the other top-4 teams while NE went winless in 9 tries against them (counting the Beanpot). But Notre Dame looked awful against Harvard (one of their worst efforts on the season) and Northeastern handed them a 4 goal loss.
Statistically the two teams are on each other's heels. 4 and 5 in scoring. 5 and 6 in defense. ND has the 3rd best PK to go against the 3rd place NE PP. An area that might appear to favor Notre Dame is our 4th place PP going against an PK that is just 8th best in Hockey East, but Northeastern is the least penalized team in the league and the Irish have forced the fewest PP opportunities against their opposition.
Then there are the intangibles. Notre Dame is healthy and rested, but will that lead to rust? Northeastern is on a roll and hungry, needing to win to play next week but the Irish are almost certainly in the NCAAs regardless of the outcome in South Bend. Will they be loose and confident, or lazy and complacent, awaiting what they may perceive to be bigger dogs to hunt? This year Notre Dame finally enjoyed some success on home ice after losing 4 of the previous 5 games at the CFIA to Northeastern, including the worst loss at the rink, a 9-2 pounding in the inaugural season of the building.
My guess is this goes three games. I'm leaning towards an Irish win, about 51% to 49%.