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NHL 2012: Playoffs! Pick Your Overtime Winners!

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Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Pick Your Overtime Winners!

I wonder of Brendan Morrison quipped that "sometimes the better team doesn't win." :)

(Sorry, this BU fan couldn't resist.)
 
Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Pick Your Overtime Winners!

Based on Bradley-Terry rankings (i.e., KRACH) found here, the updated (after 4/19) most likely outcomes are:

West: LAK in 5 (43.1%), STL in 5 (64.1%), PHX in 5 (50.8%), NSH in 5 (55.3%)
East: NYR in 6 (39.6%), BOS in 6 (29.2%), NJD in 6 (29.7%), PHI in 5 (52.8%)

Overall winning probabilities:
West
VAN 18.4% - LAK 81.6%
STL 95.4% - SJS 4.63%
PHX 88.1% - CHI 11.9%
NSH 91.1% - DET 8.91%

East
NYR 69.0% - OTT 31.0%
BOS 56.0% - WAS 44.0%
FLA 56.8% - NJD 43.2%
PIT 89.5% - PHI 10.5%

As always, KRACH is not a perfect predictive system. In fact, it's not predictive at all; it's retrodictive. Home-ice advantage, momentum, and the like can not be accounted for reliably, so they are ignored.

Next Round possibilities:
Code: 
-------------------------------------------
|WEST |                HOME               |
|CONF.|-----------------------------------|
|     | VAN | STL | PHX | NSH | DET | CHI |
|-----------------------------------------|
| |PHX|XXXXX|15.5%|XXXXX|XXXXX|XXXXX|XXXXX|
| |---|-----------------------------------|
| |NSH|14.1%|1.90%|63.1%|XXXXX|XXXXX|XXXXX|
| |---|-----------------------------------|
|A|DET|1.38%|0.19%|6.17%|XXXXX|XXXXX|XXXXX|
|W|---|-----------------------------------|
|A|CHI|2.09%|XXXXX|XXXXX|8.51%|0.83%|XXXXX|
|Y|---|-----------------------------------|
| |SJS|0.85%|XXXXX|XXXXX|3.03%|0.30%|0.45%|
| |---|-----------------------------------|
| |LAK|XXXXX|77.8%|3.33%|0.41%|0.04%|XXXXX|
-------------------------------------------

-------------------------------------------
|EAST |                HOME               |
|CONF.|-----------------------------------|
|     | NYR | BOS | FLA | PIT | PHI | NJD |
|-----------------------------------------|
| |FLA|XXXXX|16.7%|XXXXX|XXXXX|XXXXX|XXXXX|
| |---|-----------------------------------|
| |PIT|1.75%|2.31%|2.17%|XXXXX|XXXXX|XXXXX|
| |---|-----------------------------------|
|A|PHI|15.0%|19.7%|18.5%|XXXXX|XXXXX|XXXXX|
|W|---|-----------------------------------|
|A|NJD|22.0%|XXXXX|XXXXX|2.85%|24.3%|XXXXX|
|Y|---|-----------------------------------|
| |WAS|30.4%|XXXXX|XXXXX|0.62%|5.27%|7.74%|
| |---|-----------------------------------|
| |OTT|XXXXX|17.4%|5.89%|0.81%|6.93%|XXXXX|
-------------------------------------------
 
Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Pick Your Overtime Winners!

Tonight I plan on drinking until Jonathan Ericsson seems like a competent defenseman. Of course, there's a good possibility that I will have to black out for that to happen, so I guess we'll find out.
 
Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Pick Your Overtime Winners!

FadeToBlack&Gold said:
Tonight I plan on drinking until Jonathan Ericsson seems like a competent defenseman. Of course, there's a good possibility that I will have to black out for that to happen, so I guess we'll find out.
Click to expand...

Or until Freddy Meyer isn't a hack....
 
Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Pick Your Overtime Winners!

FadeToBlack&Gold said:
Tonight I plan on drinking until Jonathan Ericsson seems like a competent defenseman. Of course, there's a good possibility that I will have to black out for that to happen, so I guess we'll find out.
Click to expand...
I know it's the most misleading stat in hockey, but Ericsson's +/- is even. Tied with Nick Lidstrom for best among blueliners.

1 Nicklas Lidstrom +0
2 Jonathan Ericsson +0
3 Kyle Quincey +0
4 Niklas Kronwall -2
5 Ian White -2
6 Brad Stuart -5

Breaking it down even further:
On ice for all Nashville goals, Game one: Lidstrom, Stuart (x3), Ericsson, Kronwall
On ice for all Nashville goals, Game two: White (x2), Quincy (x2)
On ice for all Nashville goals, Game three: Stuart (x3), Ericsson, Kronwall (x2)
On ice for all Nashville goals, Game four: Lidstrom, White, Stuart (x2), Ericsson, Kronwall

Combined totals: Lidstrom (x2), White (x3), Stuart (x8), Quincy (x2) Ericsson (x3), Kronwall (x4)
Shockingly, Ericsson's not the problem. :eek:


In case you're curious, here's who was defending the blue-line for the Wings goals:
Game one: Lidstrom, White, Quincy, Kronwall
Game two: Lidstrom, White, Stuart, Quincy, Ericsson
Game three: Lidstrom (x2), Kronwall (x2)
Game four: Quincy, Kronwall
Combined totals: Lidstrom (x4), White (x2), Stuart, Quincy (x3), Ericsson, Kronwall (x4)

And if you subtract the goals against from the goals for we get:
Lidstrom +2, White -1, Stuart -7, Quincy +1, Ericsson -2, Kronwall 0.
 
Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Pick Your Overtime Winners!

Just thought of this. Tonight could be, but hopefully won't be, Lidstrom's last game wearing the winged wheel.
 
Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Pick Your Overtime Winners!

aparch said:
I know it's the most misleading stat in hockey, but Ericsson's +/- is even. Tied with Nick Lidstrom for best among blueliners.
Click to expand...
Misleading stats are misleading!

I would guess Lidstrom's ice time in relation to most others is much higher. So it stands to reason he will be on the ice for more goals against or for.
 
Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Pick Your Overtime Winners!

JF_Gophers said:
Misleading stats are misleading!

I would guess Lidstrom's ice time in relation to most others is much higher. So it stands to reason he will be on the ice for more goals against or for.
Click to expand...
Check the post again. I broke it down ignoring special teams. Ice time is also negligible under this assessment.

Brad Stuart is the weak cog on the blue-line. Every other blueliner is practically at zero, equally on ice for both DET and NSH goals. Brad Stuart is almost -10. On ice for almost every NSH goal and zero DET goals.


*edit* At this point, I'd take DAMMIT Janik! or XLB over Brad Stuart.

Now excuse me as I go scrub my computer clean from typing that...
 
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Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Pick Your Overtime Winners!

yeah, Stuart checked out of Detroit and into whatever California team he thinks is going to sign him already.
 
Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Pick Your Overtime Winners!

aparch said:
*edit* At this point, I'd take DAMMIT Janik! or XLB over Brad Stuart.
Click to expand...
Would you take Lilja back? Just wondering how desperate you really are. :p

A friend offered me free tickets to tomorrow night's game. As you can imagine, I'm pretty psyched.
 
Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Pick Your Overtime Winners!

I just realized that even with all of the crap in this Philly-Pitt series, Matt Cooke hasn't really had anything to do with it. He has turned over a new leaf, hasn't he?
 
Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Pick Your Overtime Winners!

WTH. I was expecting 10 goals between Philly and Pitt.

Just as I type, the Pens tie it.
 
Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Pick Your Overtime Winners!

state of hockey said:
I just realized that even with all of the crap in this Philly-Pitt series, Matt Cooke hasn't really had anything to do with it. He has turned over a new leaf, hasn't he?
Click to expand...
Yeah, the high-sticking minor he had in Game 4 was the first penalty he took in the series. Of course, he then got an additional minor and a 10-min misconduct for holding the stick later in the game.
 
Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Pick Your Overtime Winners!

Can the Penguins offer the referee to just award a penalty shot than allow the Flyers back on the power play? They are killing penalties at a lusty 37.5% so far.

ETA: 35%
 
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Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Pick Your Overtime Winners!

Priceless said:
Can the Penguins offer the referee to just award a penalty shot than allow the Flyers back on the power play? They are killing penalties at a lusty 37.5% so far.
Click to expand...
So, you think their goaltender(s) can give up less than 37.5 on penalty shots? :)

I'd take the "over" side on that bet.
 
Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Pick Your Overtime Winners!

There's the ballgame folks. First one to score has won all series between NSH/DET.
 
Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Pick Your Overtime Winners!

Don't necessarily like Jordan Staal (maybe because I hate Eric), but man, if he could only stay healthy.
 
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