Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Part II: Boogalooing all the way to the Cup
Based on Bradley-Terry rankings (i.e., KRACH) found in the spreadsheet burgie12 gave me (but also here), the updated (after 6/9) probabilities for each possible outcome of the Stanley Cup Final are:
Most likely: LAK in 6
As always, KRACH is not a perfect predictive system. In fact, it's not predictive at all; it's retrodictive. Home-ice advantage, momentum, and the like can not be accounted for reliably, so they are ignored.
Remarks: Historically, when a team has had a 3-2 lead in the Stanley Cup Finals, they have won the cup 77.1% of the time (though this drops to 50% if the leading team is the lower seed). The leading team is 19-16 in Game 6.
Based on Bradley-Terry rankings (i.e., KRACH) found in the spreadsheet burgie12 gave me (but also here), the updated (after 6/9) probabilities for each possible outcome of the Stanley Cup Final are:
Code:
-------------
| Game| % |
|-----------|
| NJD |48.9%|
|-----|-----|
| LAK |51.1%|
-------------
----------------
| Outcome| % |
|--------------|
|NJD in 7|23.9%|
|--------|-----|
|LAK in 6|51.1%|
|--------|-----|
|LAK in 7|25.0%|
|==============|
| NJD|23.9%|
|--------|-----|
| LAK|76.1%|
----------------
Game: Probability of winning each gameMost likely: LAK in 6
As always, KRACH is not a perfect predictive system. In fact, it's not predictive at all; it's retrodictive. Home-ice advantage, momentum, and the like can not be accounted for reliably, so they are ignored.
Remarks: Historically, when a team has had a 3-2 lead in the Stanley Cup Finals, they have won the cup 77.1% of the time (though this drops to 50% if the leading team is the lower seed). The leading team is 19-16 in Game 6.
