Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Part II: Boogalooing all the way to the Cup
Conference Semifinals recap post!
Using Bradley-Terry rankings (i.e., KRACH) found
here, it was possible to break down the probabilities of each possible outcome of the four series. Here's how those initial projections stacked up:
West
STL-LAK
Initial projection: St. Louis in 5, 22.0%
Overall projection: St. Louis wins, 73.8%
Actual outcome: Los Angeles in 4
Initial possibility: 2.21% (8th most likely of 8)
PHX-NSH
Initial projection: Nashville in 6, 18.7%
Overall projection: Nashville wins, 61.5%
Actual outcome: Phoenix in 5
Initial possibility: 8.83% (7th most likely of 8)
East
NYR-WAS
Initial projection: New York in 5, 21.2%
Overall projection: New York wins, 72.1%
Actual outcome: New York in 7
Initial possibility: 16.5% (3rd most likely of 8)
PHI-NJD
Initial projection: Philadelphia in 6, 19.2%
Overall projection: Philadelphia wins, 63.7%
Actual outcome: New Jersey in 5
Initial possibility: 8.18% (7th most likely of 8)
How I (the numbers) did: 1 winner (wrong length) and 3 wrong winners. In other words, awfully.