Hammer
We'll be back.
Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Part II: Boogalooing all the way to the Cup
Yeah. They've been doing that for a few years now.
Yeah. They've been doing that for a few years now.
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NHL 2012: Playoffs! Part II: Boogalooing all the way to the Cup
- Thread starter burgie12
- Start date
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MinnesotaNorthStar
Minding the gap
Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Part II: Boogalooing all the way to the Cup
As obvious as it was...there's a part of me that's surprised they got it right...
Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Part II: Boogalooing all the way to the Cup
Based on Bradley-Terry rankings (i.e., KRACH) found here, the updated (after 5/20, old KRACH) most likely outcomes are:
LAK in 5 (51.8%)
NYR in 5 (32.3%)
Overall winning probabilities:
PHX 11.2% - LAK 88.8%
NYR 78.2% - NJD 21.8%
As always, KRACH is not a perfect predictive system. In fact, it's not predictive at all; it's retrodictive. Home-ice advantage, momentum, and the like can not be accounted for reliably, so they are ignored.
Remarks: The guy who posts the KRACHs only updates every 2-3 days now, which is why I stopped updating daily. As such, the KRACHs do not reflect the Coyotes win that just occurred.
Next Round possibilities:
Based on Bradley-Terry rankings (i.e., KRACH) found here, the updated (after 5/20, old KRACH) most likely outcomes are:
LAK in 5 (51.8%)
NYR in 5 (32.3%)
Overall winning probabilities:
PHX 11.2% - LAK 88.8%
NYR 78.2% - NJD 21.8%
As always, KRACH is not a perfect predictive system. In fact, it's not predictive at all; it's retrodictive. Home-ice advantage, momentum, and the like can not be accounted for reliably, so they are ignored.
Remarks: The guy who posts the KRACHs only updates every 2-3 days now, which is why I stopped updating daily. As such, the KRACHs do not reflect the Coyotes win that just occurred.
Next Round possibilities:
Code:
-------------------
| S | ECF |
| C |-----------|
| F | NYR | NJD |
|-----------------|
|W|PHX|8.77%|2.44%|
|C|---|-----------|
|F|LAK|69.5%|19.3%|
-------------------MinnesotaNorthStar
Minding the gap
Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Part II: Boogalooing all the way to the Cup
Brendan Prust gets 1 game for the elbow to Volchenkov...
Brendan Prust gets 1 game for the elbow to Volchenkov...
Last edited:
MountieBoyOz
Eater of Worlds
Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Part II: Boogalooing all the way to the Cup
Fair sentence for him. Deserved it.
Fair sentence for him. Deserved it.
Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Part II: Boogalooing all the way to the Cup
So, the Conference Semifinals ended (a while ago) and pardonme has steamrolled to the lead. He picked the correct winner in each of the three series that he submitted a pick for, generating a tremendous 85 points (the max possible for the round was 138). No one else got more than 48 (posted by UMBlackBear43, which was enough to move him into 2nd place).
For the Conference Finals, all 10 posters picked the Rangers to hoist the Prince of Wales Trophy while 6 of the 9 picked the Kings over the Coyotes to represent the Western Conference (JMH failed to get his picks in before the Kings-Coyotes series started). I was the only person to pick the WCF series to go 5, while MountieBoyOz was the only one to pick it to go 7. In the Rangers-Devils series, 3 of us picked the series to end in 5 games, 3 (well, two and KRAPH) to end in 6, and the remaining 4 of us picked the series to go the full 7 games.
There are only three possible leaders heading into the SCF. If the Coyotes can come all the way back and thwart the Kings' "upset," then the leader depends on how quickly the Rangers-Devils series ends (remember, the winner doesn't matter because everyone picked the same team, so the absolute scores may change, but our relative positions would remain consistent). If it ends in 5, then pardonme has a 9-point lead over REDaero91; in 6, it's Statistics! by 2 points over REDaero91 and pardonme just a scant 6 more points behind; in 7 it's REDaero91 with a commanding 21 point lead over pardonme (meaning that it would be crucial for one and only one of them to pick the correct SCF winner). At that point, only 7 posters would have a mathematical shot at a win going into the final round. If the Kings fail to choke away the 3-0 lead, then pardonme is guaranteed at least a 20-point lead and could even stretch it to a nearly insurmountable 39 points, eliminating everyone else from contention except UMBlackBear43.
So, the Conference Semifinals ended (a while ago) and pardonme has steamrolled to the lead. He picked the correct winner in each of the three series that he submitted a pick for, generating a tremendous 85 points (the max possible for the round was 138). No one else got more than 48 (posted by UMBlackBear43, which was enough to move him into 2nd place).
For the Conference Finals, all 10 posters picked the Rangers to hoist the Prince of Wales Trophy while 6 of the 9 picked the Kings over the Coyotes to represent the Western Conference (JMH failed to get his picks in before the Kings-Coyotes series started). I was the only person to pick the WCF series to go 5, while MountieBoyOz was the only one to pick it to go 7. In the Rangers-Devils series, 3 of us picked the series to end in 5 games, 3 (well, two and KRAPH) to end in 6, and the remaining 4 of us picked the series to go the full 7 games.
There are only three possible leaders heading into the SCF. If the Coyotes can come all the way back and thwart the Kings' "upset," then the leader depends on how quickly the Rangers-Devils series ends (remember, the winner doesn't matter because everyone picked the same team, so the absolute scores may change, but our relative positions would remain consistent). If it ends in 5, then pardonme has a 9-point lead over REDaero91; in 6, it's Statistics! by 2 points over REDaero91 and pardonme just a scant 6 more points behind; in 7 it's REDaero91 with a commanding 21 point lead over pardonme (meaning that it would be crucial for one and only one of them to pick the correct SCF winner). At that point, only 7 posters would have a mathematical shot at a win going into the final round. If the Kings fail to choke away the 3-0 lead, then pardonme is guaranteed at least a 20-point lead and could even stretch it to a nearly insurmountable 39 points, eliminating everyone else from contention except UMBlackBear43.
jmh
win or lose, we booze
Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Part II: Boogalooing all the way to the Cup
The Rangers are 0-6 so far in the playoffs when they are ahead in a series. That's ugly.
Sounds about right to me. It didn't have his body weight or momentum behind it (which would have had the potential for serious injury and merited a longer suspension), but he clearly elbowed Volchenkov in the head.
The Rangers are 0-6 so far in the playoffs when they are ahead in a series. That's ugly.
Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Part II: Boogalooing all the way to the Cup
Based on Bradley-Terry rankings (i.e., KRACH) found here, the updated (after 5/20) most likely outcomes are:
LAK in 5 (50.8%)
NYR in 5 (32.3%)
Overall winning probabilities:
PHX 11.9% - LAK 88.1%
NYR 78.2% - NJD 21.8%
As always, KRACH is not a perfect predictive system. In fact, it's not predictive at all; it's retrodictive. Home-ice advantage, momentum, and the like can not be accounted for reliably, so they are ignored.
Remarks: Just a minor update from yesterday with the updated KRACHs.
Next Round possibilities:
Based on Bradley-Terry rankings (i.e., KRACH) found here, the updated (after 5/20) most likely outcomes are:
LAK in 5 (50.8%)
NYR in 5 (32.3%)
Overall winning probabilities:
PHX 11.9% - LAK 88.1%
NYR 78.2% - NJD 21.8%
As always, KRACH is not a perfect predictive system. In fact, it's not predictive at all; it's retrodictive. Home-ice advantage, momentum, and the like can not be accounted for reliably, so they are ignored.
Remarks: Just a minor update from yesterday with the updated KRACHs.
Next Round possibilities:
Code:
-------------------
| S | ECF |
| C |-----------|
| F | NYR | NJD |
|-----------------|
|W|PHX|9.33%|2.59%|
|C|---|-----------|
|F|LAK|68.9%|19.2%|
-------------------jmh
win or lose, we booze
Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Part II: Boogalooing all the way to the Cup
No assumption that the Rangers beat the Devils here, of course, but if the most likely outcomes per Bradley-Terry come to pass and the finals is Rangers-Kings, out of curiosity, what are the predicted outcomes?
No assumption that the Rangers beat the Devils here, of course, but if the most likely outcomes per Bradley-Terry come to pass and the finals is Rangers-Kings, out of curiosity, what are the predicted outcomes?
ExileOnDaytonStreet
Drunkard
Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Part II: Boogalooing all the way to the Cup
This is using current KRAPH values (which obviously won't hold). The NYR will be nearly 2:1 favorites over the LAK and the most likely outcome will be Rangers in 6.
Sorry to steal your thunder, lugnut...
Code:
-----------------------------------------------------------------
|Team | KRAPH | Each | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 || CHAMP |
-----------------------------------------------------------------
| NYR | 163.60 | 55.63 | 9.58 | 17.00 | 18.86 | 16.73 || 62.17 |
| LAK | 130.47 | 44.37 | 3.87 | 8.62 | 11.99 | 13.34 || 37.83 |
-----------------------------------------------------------------
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Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Part II: Boogalooing all the way to the Cup
That said, the Kings were 5:2 and 3:1 underdogs in their first two series, respectively. They were expected to lose both series in 5. Based on the KRAPH at the beginning of each series, they had a 3.6% chance of making the Cup finals. Now, it's 88.1%. Also, I hate the Kings.
That said, the Kings were 5:2 and 3:1 underdogs in their first two series, respectively. They were expected to lose both series in 5. Based on the KRAPH at the beginning of each series, they had a 3.6% chance of making the Cup finals. Now, it's 88.1%. Also, I hate the Kings.
PrezdeJohnson09
Proud supporter of Osmirwich hockey
Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Part II: Boogalooing all the way to the Cup
Well that first period was similar to Game 3...
Difference is..Devils actually found the net. TWICE.
Not looking good right now. Rangers gotta respond quick here to start the second.
Well that first period was similar to Game 3...
Difference is..Devils actually found the net. TWICE.
Not looking good right now. Rangers gotta respond quick here to start the second.
MountieBoyOz
Eater of Worlds
Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Part II: Boogalooing all the way to the Cup
Mr. Kovalchuk. Brendan Shannahan on line one. Please pick up the white courtesy phone.
Mr. Kovalchuk. Brendan Shannahan on line one. Please pick up the white courtesy phone.
jmh
win or lose, we booze
Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Part II: Boogalooing all the way to the Cup
Another **** effort from the Rangers in a game where they have a chance to stretch a lead.
I'd complain about the missed interference on Kreider right before that penalty on Stepan, but it's not like it'd matter.
Edit to add: the slash Staal got away with earlier in the game was almost as bad, though it didn't take away a scoring chance.
Another **** effort from the Rangers in a game where they have a chance to stretch a lead.
I'd complain about the missed interference on Kreider right before that penalty on Stepan, but it's not like it'd matter.
Edit to add: the slash Staal got away with earlier in the game was almost as bad, though it didn't take away a scoring chance.
Last edited:
PrezdeJohnson09
Proud supporter of Osmirwich hockey
Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Part II: Boogalooing all the way to the Cup
Is fatigue starting to factor?
Especially since we really only skate three lines and 4-5 D?
Is fatigue starting to factor?
Especially since we really only skate three lines and 4-5 D?
Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Part II: Boogalooing all the way to the Cup
Based on Bradley-Terry rankings (i.e., KRACH) found here, the updated (after 5/21) most likely outcomes are:
LAK in 5 (50.8%)
NYR in 6 (31.1%)
Overall winning probabilities:
PHX 11.9% - LAK 88.1%
NYR 58.6% - NJD 41.4%
As always, KRACH is not a perfect predictive system. In fact, it's not predictive at all; it's retrodictive. Home-ice advantage, momentum, and the like can not be accounted for reliably, so they are ignored.
Next Round possibilities:
Based on Bradley-Terry rankings (i.e., KRACH) found here, the updated (after 5/21) most likely outcomes are:
LAK in 5 (50.8%)
NYR in 6 (31.1%)
Overall winning probabilities:
PHX 11.9% - LAK 88.1%
NYR 58.6% - NJD 41.4%
As always, KRACH is not a perfect predictive system. In fact, it's not predictive at all; it's retrodictive. Home-ice advantage, momentum, and the like can not be accounted for reliably, so they are ignored.
Next Round possibilities:
Code:
-------------------
| S | ECF |
| C |-----------|
| F | NYR | NJD |
|-----------------|
|W|PHX|6.98%|4.93%|
|C|---|-----------|
|F|LAK|51.6%|36.5%|
-------------------- Status